Do you call 13 outs on the flop when he has an overpair?

So this is mainly a hypothetical question, and Ive actually faced a similar situation before playing 1/2 cash. So i want to know what people think about this situation in a ring game and in a tournament. Say you flop a draw and you have 13 outs to hit the draw. You lead out 15 in to a pot of say 30, and then a tag player who only plays big over pairs this way shoves all in over top for 115. The pot odds are terrible you need to call 100 more to win 160. With 13 outs in this spot, do you call, getting a little less then the best of it, with 14 outs do you call. You know this player very well and know hes only making this move with an over pair. My question really is do you chance it, pick a better spot, does it matter to you if its ring or tourney and at what point would you be willing to ship it with those terrible pot odds in on a flop(how many outs would it take for you to be willing to ship it in that spot)

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html


This is a pretty vague example, so lets say you hold: Th5c

The flop is: 8hTc9d

and you know for a fact villain has {JJ+}

size of the pot: 160 (115+30+15)

size of bet: 115

pokerstove says:

Hand 0: 18.384% { Th5c }
Hand 1: 81.616% { JJ+ }

115/(160+115)=41%

41%>18.3% so the call is -EV

Sorry fatguy, I disagree with what you said because in the question he said he had 13 outs, and I'm not saying you did your calculations wrong, but it's really easy to find out if this is a good situation to get it in or not. We're calling 100 to win 160, or 1 to 1.6. If know for sure we have 13 outs, and it's on the flop(kidsoldja, I don't think you realized that you have 2 chances to hit it) then I think I remember reading somewhere that you calculate how often you don't hit it and subtract it from one. If we know 7 cards, there are 45 left, so that leaves 32 bad cards (32/45). On the turn(we didn't hit) we know 8 cards, there are 44 left, so that leaves 31 bad cards (31/45). 1- (32/45X31/45) = 1-0.4898765%, we'll hit 51% of the time. Snap call in this spot, from a glance (13X2=26) we know we'll hit about 1 in 2 times, so pretty much any pot odds tell us to call in the heat of the moment. You should always call here with so many outs, unless you're deepstacked in the main event and phil ivey and you take the nitty route because you don't want to take risks and can read peoples souls and win chips without winning hands

Hm, I've come up with slightly different calculations than both of fatguy and newfish; here's how I see it:

Assume we hold T, 9 versus villain's K,K

Flop is
9, 8, 7

We have 13 outs:
Two 9s
Four 6s
Four Js
Three Ts
= 13

Here's the stove:

Code:

---

 990  games     0.001 secs   990,000  games/sec

Board: 9d 8h 7s
Dead:  

                equity         win           tie        pots won    pots tied    
Hand 0:     54.141%      52.93%     01.21%      524       12.00   { KhKs }
Hand 1:     45.859%      44.65%     01.21%      442       12.00   { Td9h }


---

So we have 45.859% equity versus the overpair. Basically, we can call for our stack depending solely on whether the amount of dead money in the pot overtakes the importance of our disadvantage in equity.


Example 1: Hero and Villain's stacks are 100$ each; 15$ already in pot

Villain is all-in for 100$; we must pay 100$ to win 115$; this implies we need 46.5% equity, which we do not have; so we fold.


Example 2: Stacks are same as in (1) except there is now 40$ already in the pot

Villain is all-in for 100$; we must pay 100$ to win 140$; we now require 41.67% equity, which we have; thus we call.

Yeah I should point out that the way I've constructed the above hand leaves open the possibility for ties and redraws, which is probably the only distinction between my calculation and newfish's "pure 13 outs" numbers.

i.e. KK has redraws against our two-pair or set draws; he will make a better hand by drawing a K on the river even if we bink one of these 5 outs some small % of the time.

I don't think it really matters because our pot odds are good enuf to call either way

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

I don't think it really matters because our pot odds are good enuf to call either way

Reading full posts is for teh win. See my examples, whether calling all-in here is good or not depends on the dead money in the pot.

Originally Posted by Penneywize

Reading full posts is for teh win. See my examples, whether calling all-in here is good or not depends on the dead money in the pot.

I read that, but in his example he gave us a set amount of dead money lol

Im not sure what I did differently penney, other than including JJ-AA rather than singling out a single overpair.

Originally Posted by fatguy'06

my bad, I always forget the little things like whether its the flop or the turn.. (ok maybe its not a little thing)

Either way the principal still holds and with the correct equity (54%) makes for a good call.

"This is a pretty vague example, so lets say you hold: Th5c

The flop is: 8hTc9d"

how do we have 54% against an overpair here

1.) yea, edited my post.. your quick.

2.) I meant 51 and took that from your calculations

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

I read that, but in his example he gave us a set amount of dead money lol

Gah! lol I missed that, sorry guys. I sort of answered the question from a general perspective instead.

I see where my pokerstove went wrong, including JJ took away some of your odds. I suppose Penney's is the best to go by.

Originally Posted by fatguy'06

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html


This is a pretty vague example, so lets say you hold: Th5c

The flop is: 8hTc9d

and you know for a fact villain has {JJ+}

size of the pot: 160 (115+30+15)

size of bet: 115

pokerstove says:

Hand 0: 18.384% { Th5c }
Hand 1: 81.616% { JJ+ }

115/(160+115)=41%

41%>18.3% so the call is -EV

call me retarded but how do we have 13 outs here? i see 5...

^^ See above post

JJ doesn't matter we don't have a straight draw, we're drawing to 5 outs in your scenario

your killin me smalls...


Fine:

Penneys example doesn't pertain to the question at hand because our range for villain in the example given (overpairs) includes JJ, a hand which removes 3 outs (the Ts)

Fish's example doesn't quite work either because you neglected any possible redraws villain may have. You assume we have 13 outs and the rest are, "bad cards".

My hand is wrong because we in fact don't have enough outs. I get this, my bad.

So the real question is, when do we have 13 outs assuming villain has any overpair?

Originally Posted by fatguy'06

your killin me smalls...


Fine:

Penneys example doesn't pertain to the question at hand because our range for villain in the example given (overpairs) includes JJ, a hand which removes 3 outs (the Ts)

Fish's example doesn't quite work either because you neglected any possible redraws villain may have. You assume we have 13 outs and the rest are, "bad cards".

My hand is wrong because we in fact don't have enough outs. I get this, my bad.

So the real question is, when do we have 13 outs assuming villain has any overpair?

it doens't need to be lethally accurate, redraws and such don't really change the numbers THAT much

Do I call 13 outs to a shove for any amount to an overpair? Yes. Because I'm > 50 percent to win the hand. Means more money for me over time.

Originally Posted by Ragnar4

Do I call 13 outs to a shove for any amount to an overpair? Yes. Because I'm > 50 percent to win the hand. Means more money for me over time.

ez game.

If you have 13 outs at the flop then you have roughly 52% chance of hitting one of them by the river.
The pot odds, as calculated above, are 41%.
The bet is worth calling.

Originally Posted by fatguy'06

your killin me smalls...


Fine:

Penneys example doesn't pertain to the question at hand because our range for villain in the example given (overpairs) includes JJ, a hand which removes 3 outs (the Ts)

(...)

So the real question is, when do we have 13 outs assuming villain has any overpair?

Are you really concerned that 1/4 of Villain's combos removing < 1/4th of our outs is going to have some sort of significant impact in the calculation at hand?

Anyhow Fatguy you know we're not trying to belittle you, much <3

Honestly the fact that this thread has gone beyond like two responses is a miracle. Now that we've had our fun increasing our postcounts, lets please let this thread die (just like that other thread about counting outs that are not known, how the fuck is that one still active??!?)

Because I like to respond to every post in threads im active in

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

Because I like to respond to every post in threads im active in

I'll say...


Penneywize
Join Date: Jan, 2005
Post Count: 390

ImTheLevelFish
Join Date: Apr, 2010
Post Count: 271

Rage

Explain the universe in a paragraph and give 2 examples.

Its about as easy as answering questions with 1% of the information.

Explain the universe in a paragraph and give 2 examples.

42.

Anyhow Fatguy you know we're not trying to belittle you, much <3

Nothing personal was taken, but I was getting annoyed by the length this thread has gone when really it should have been a single post which points to spoony's calling all-in thread. I suppose its my fault for leading with an aweful example. Couple that with a bad day at work (they have my shop-vacuuming the attic for Petes sake!) and I will start to nitpick.