Discussion - TLDR late night ramble blah blah blah

Disclaimer: I'm so effing tired I don't know if any of this makes sense so I'd appreciate feedback. I'll look at this tomorrow when I'm awake so I can laugh at it and whatnot.

Introducing villain and my image:
-Repping his Platinum Star
-On muiltiple tables (at least 4 though hiding)
-Presumeably using a HUD.
-Running 18/13 or so with a 30 something ATS and has been playing pretty snug postflop.
-Table recently broke down to 4 and I had been playing fairly aggressively. My image to him would be that of like 26/22 or something of that nature with a 6-8% 3bet percentage and a 40% ATS and probably a high AF.
-On another table I had been attacking his blind constantly BVB, and my overall cbetting frequency has been quite high as these nitty tables are allowing me to run them over without really adjusting at all.

On to the hand:
Okay so on the flop I make a (smallish) cbet and in doing so I pretty much expect this to get floated by most weak hands in his range (air/weak/med strength hands with some SD value), which is interesting to me, because I feel like villains range for floating me is very unbalanced and thus can be pretty easily exploited. Since this guy seems like your typical tag-fish regular I'd expect him to be auto-raising my cbet on this flop with Sets/draws/overpairs, and just call with weak 1 pair hands and overcards/air. Basically he's playing his strong hands with lots of equity differently than his hands with little equity, and because of this I think he's playing in an exploitable way in this spot(?). I wouldn't really expect him to raise this flop with hands that have little equity and just call with alot of equity. Hell his preflop range is probably only pairs and a few broadways anyway unless he's getting sick of me taking over his button every lap and is deciding to make a stand with some T9/98/87 type hands.

He hasn't seen me 2 barrel many times as I've taken down most pots with a cbet. If he has seen me get to the turn, he's probably seen me follow through most often (like 3 times in a couple hundred hands? lol). But here is a board where it's probably unlikely I am going to follow through with the weaker hands in my range, so it's almost as if he can anticipate me giving up on the turn often (In fact I don't think I'd be cbetting here very often because of this, but I chose to bet my hand for value of course).

I guess its reasonable to assume there is a chance he could be just calling with a set or a draw, or perhaps with a hand such as TT-QQ - though I highly doubt he isn't 3betting these preflop given my preflop aggression thus far - therefore we can significantly discount these hands from his range. This board isn't really one I'm going to 2 barrel vs this player, especially out of position, without a made hand. (I think he knows this and thus will likely float).

Thoughts about about betting the turn? We could probably bet for value though it's very unlikely we'll be able to squeeze 3 streets from this player with just 99. So this is why I opted to c/c the turn. If villain decided to check back the turn the first thing that would come to mind is a weak pair trying to get to showdown cheap - so I'd lead the river and expect to get called because my line looks weird.



PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($56.90)
Hero (UTG) ($67.80)
Button ($54.05)
SB ($43.05)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9, 9
Hero bets $1.50, Button calls $1.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.75) 2, 8, 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, Button calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.75) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $6, Hero calls $6

River: ($20.75) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $11, Hero calls $11

Total pot: $42.75



Okay so in conclusion I think its really retarded for him to float me on this board, and the deuce on the turn doesn't improve his range at all, so he isn't really repping anything. He's essentially repping a float of some sort, whether it is turning a weak pair into a bluff or just bluffing with total air. Yes there is a chance he could have a boat but if we look at the hand combinations, this is extremely unlikey after the deuce falls on the turn.

Alright I tried to lay some thoughts out about the hand and see if this will initiate any discussion. TBH this is a pretty standard spot but it definately can't hurt to think a little bit deeper about it and why we take certain lines and so on. It's probably obviously really simple but I felt breaking down my thought process throughout such a simple hand would be a great way to discover leaks. Maybe if we understand why we are doing something it'll make us better players overall.

Any disgreement on my line? Thoughts etc? Merits to betting the turn vs c/c?

Jesus christ this is seriously unorganized. I think iopq will be the only one to actually read it, so thanks in advance.

Summary/last minute note:
Because I feel I can probably only get 2 streets of value by betting, I decided to c/c the turn, and I could go for my 2nd street of value on the river if he checks back. This way I maximize my value out of the air in his range which he would fold to a 2barrel (or raise if he had balls which he lol doesn't).

I'm a writer, not a reader
EDIT: convert your hand you splarm
PS: bet, check, bet is the most transparent "I pot controlled my made hand and made a value bet" line ever

oh hey, see my edit in post #1 it kinda sums it up I guess?

I'll get on that, damn you reply fast

So bet/check/bet basically turns my hand face up...but does it matter if he's calling anyway?

If he decided to check back the turn and raise the river well then..I guess I'd call because that doesn't make sense either and its as if he's trying to push me off what I'm repping (99 basically).

I could actually balance that with a boat that failed to c/r the turn...or is that retarded.

just bet for thin value/protection and block bet river is pretty good

Yeah that seems reasonable given that if he doesn't raise by the turn I could probably discount flopped sets from his range and not expect to get bluff raised on the river like ever.

bet/fold the turn, then prolly c/f the river vs. this dude

I like your line and your reasoning m2m, but wtf do i know...

yeah I keep thinking "lol I am getting bluff raised" but just fold if you get raised they don't have the balls to bluff raise

Yeah, I'm not sure what this guy thought of me when I c/c the turn since I've been playing sort of on the laggy side and he probably sees my range as weak, hence his bet. Then on the river it's like, lol he checked weakness I bet? I can't see why he wouldn't check back with most of his range here, or at least bet bigger since he's giving me about 3:1. If he bet pot I wouldn't really be able to consider calling despite how bluffy his line looks, his range coming into the hand preflop was likely strong.

I dunno how these tighter guys think about 'playing back at someone', but from what I've seen from little experience typically they're pretty spazzy and pick akward spots to bluff or shy away from making large bets. His river bet didn't really make sense to me because I didn't think he'd be betting for thin value and would likely just check back most weak made hands so he's really only betting slowplayed strong hands on the flop, perhaps Tx which floated and got there on the river, or air..Like as for pairs betting for value I think 99 at the worst would bet this river but I could be wrong.