A different way to think of your poker bankroll.

So you're saying there's an 87.5% chance any one specific US facing poker site collapses in the next 12-18 months?

Originally Posted by Pascal

So you're saying there's an 87.5% chance any one specific US facing poker site collapses in the next 12-18 months?

I'm saying that even since the DOJ action, there's been some serious risk in all of the US facing poker rooms. These include:

1) Loss of rule of law.

2) Ongoing changes caused by loss of players. This is both good and bad, as many players were disenfranchised, which was a plus to some of the small poker networks who picked them up. But now they're skittish of more changes.

3) Danger of further US intervention.

4) Danger of severe structural changes in the industry damaging the current small networks. (That whooshing sound when and if Harrah's or PokerStars gets greenlighted to serve US internet players.) Good for the general community, but could cause a severe inability to pay out on the part of the smaller poker networks if too many of their customers left at once.

5) (Biggest right now) Ongoing check issues. This one is constant and highly variable. As far as I know, it's only a payment issue right now on some specific networks. But...slow paying is a classic sign that the money going in hasn't equaled the money promised in returns, especially when you consider promotional monies + operating expenses, that may have exceeded rake. This could be just a case of the US making it hard to cash out though, so I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt, and trying to go with more trusted sites. (One of the reasons I like Bovada, with the sterling reputation of the Mohawk Group.)

So...Basically I'm saying that there's a very high probability of significant news happening within the small poker networks within the next 12 months.

I normally don't like to bring these issues up, because I don't want anyone scared off of putting money into the online sites that have stood behind us as players in spite of our own government's stupidity. But the reality here is that we now have a greater institutional risk to deal with then before, and when I see institutional risk + difficulty getting a check out, than I go to my strictest rules: Get in, double up, get the original amount out, and then let the remainder work for you.

Yes, my 4-6 month half-life may be waaaaaay too conservative. And it may be for significant news as an industry as a whole, rather than a single site. You might choose to set 6-8, or even 8-12 months on your risk multiplier, but it is most certainly there, and should be considered.

And the 87.5% figure is a way of showing that you're red-lining your risk, it's not any more certain than flipping a coin three times is without coming up heads on any of the three flips.

Originally Posted by Pascal

So you're saying there's an 87.5% chance any one specific US facing poker site collapses in the next 12-18 months?

Maybe not quite 87.5%, but all US facing poker sites are definitely on a DOJ hotlist.