Good analysis- by doing things like this over and over again in different ways/situations you force yourself to get better.
side note: one reason why i tend not to eliminate combinations (weight ranges) on the forum (even though i am always doing this in game) is that it makes it harder for others to comment in some ways. you can always add enough assumptions such that the play you made looks like the perfect play. you also can always add assumptions after the fact to convince yourself you made a certain mistake which you might not have even made. by leaving more uncertainty in the problem i try to combat either of the two errors i just mentioned and then tweak the more general model in game to suit specific circumstances.
couple quick things:
1. in a vacuum, 3betting with KJcc vs a btn open is going to be significantly better than flatting. however, flatting may be better for balance, but its important to know 3betting is the most +ev play. this isnt necessarily the case, (as in i dont know whether 3betting or calling KJcc vs a btn raise would be game theory optimal or whatever) it just is the case in my database, and in the databases of everyone i have ever talked to. so its an empirical observation
2. what you're doing in your analysis is analyzing the way each of your possible betting/raising/calling options would influence his range, and influence the final potsize on various runouts. I think a more direct way to frame your analysis would be "how can i make the largest potsize, with the highest frequency, vs the weakest range of hands i can get him to hold?" typically the answer to that question is "what line will he think is most full of shit?" you start to do this by eliminating a flop C/R as a good option because you thought it would narrow his range too much too early in the hand (and your hand is unlikely to improve, and your hand doesnt need much protection), even though a flop c/c + turn lead is basically the same size as a flop c/r.
3. River is a very clear value bet vs most opponents, even if he folds like 60% of his range i still think you are ahead more than 50% when called
Gl in poker !
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