decisions pre...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($7.87)
Hero (BB) ($4.98)
UTG ($3.16)
MP ($4.41)
CO ($5.14)
Button ($0.85)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, J
2 folds, CO bets $0.15, 2 folds HERO??

ok this is a situation ive come to a bunch, and some people in irc think its better to 3bet here vs a 30/24/4 co raise. only real read is that he has raised from the co a few times before

so which is it, fold, raise, or call and most importantly why?

<JustinSKS> I mean you've got a hand that doesn't flop all that great. But he was like what in the co? So his range is failry wide. He's running like 30/20/4 So you were probably ahead of his opening range. Which you should have 3-b him from the blinds and fold to any 4-bet/shove type deal. Or else just fold pre imo. Because you're giving up all initiative and relying soley on flopping well to win.
<JustinSKS> Also being oop sucks
<JustinSKS> and you flatted him till river then folded
<JustinSKS> you let him build a big pot just to take away from you

I think sample size is pretty important here, as well as ATS. If he's 30/24/4 over 30 w 15 ATS for example, I would probably fold or flat, whereas if he's 30/24/4 over 155 w 30 ATS I think it's a pretty easy 3bet.

30 hands 40 ats

What are his fold to 3bet stats? Anything but folding is fine.

Basically, his flop aggression (in this case, his cbet%) is key here on how wide to call. The less aggressive, the more hands we can call with. Since he is so aggressive (judging by the 4 AF or whatever) then we need to be ahead of his range. AJo is doing very well against this and also gives us a couple of overs if we decide we can float or c/r bluff flops. We can decide to 3bet for value if he calls a lot of 3bets. Honestly, it'd be +EV to just 3bet bluff this than fold if he just folds to 3bets a lot but I'd flat if:

1. He's aggressive postflop
2. He can fold to c/r on certain flops
3. He folds to 3bets a lot

if he's fishy then I would try my luck and 3b/fold
the reason is that fish call with hands like A8s and go too far if they flop an ace

if he's reggy then I flat and c/r flops that seem like they hit my range

Originally Posted by iopq

if he's fishy then I would try my luck and 3b/fold
the reason is that fish call with hands like A8s and go too far if they flop an ace

if he's reggy then I flat and c/r flops that seem like they hit my range

damnit to hell.. I always hate agreeing with iopq, but this is so obv that I have to.

Basically it goes like this. You are well ahead of his range, so folding is out of the question. If he's going to be calling loads of 3bets with the majority of his range, then you can 3bet for value, folding to a 4bet because his 3bet calling range is wide, and we are ahead of (he's calling stuff like AT, A9, A5s, etc). And we can safely fold a 4bet because even fishy players don't 4bet extremely wide.

If he isn't calling a 3bet with a weaker range, then 3betting for value is bad, and since calling is profitable (assuming you don't suck it up postflop), then calling > 3bet bluffing here with AJ. Instead call, and exploit his range postflop. Sure flopping well is good, but remember he is stealing like 40-50% of the time or so, which means postflop his range isn't going to be all that strong, so check/raising alot of decent flop (flops that miss his range, or smack our range, or that we have good equity on) is going to work a fair amount of the time. Donk leading is also quite profitable when check/calling, or check/raising isn't desirable.

And back to turning AJ isn't a 3bet bluff if it's a profitable call, and why this is bad. Well if he folds to a lot of 3bets, then we can exploit this by 3bet bluffing a wider range. And since we would be predominantly relying on the fold equity, we could 3bet worse hands. That is hands that we can't profitably call with, which will allow us to make money with hands that we would normally just fold with (97s, 86s, 22, etc)

sorry for bumping, but thanks for the responses guys, very informative