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But yes, a sensible newbie will expect to lose at first, and will either give up or keep plugging away until they start consistently winning. However, the variance of poker is such that a fair minority of newcomers will win money for their first few sessions, and it's understandable, if naive, that they'll want to celebrate this.
The circle of death can happen in a couple of ways:
1) the newcomer's luck runs out, and they start to lose money as they're not yet very good
2) the newcomer has gained a decent understanding of the game and has the beginnings of a solid ability, but negative variance comes along and bites him on the arse
3) the newcomer has gained a decent understanding of the game and has the beginnings of a solid ability, and decides to try to develop his game to become laggier, or more aggressive, and loses money as they try and grasp more difficult and risky strategies.
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