Quote Originally Posted by Fnord
Dangerous thought:

What if you always called a PFR for 5% of your stack with TT-22, but if you missed your set, flipped 2 coins and raised the c-bet if they both landed heads?
Very intriguing.

I'm assuming that you would raise the c-bet with a made set as well. The odds of flopping a set or better with paired hole cards is 7.5/1, but I'll just round it down to 7 for simplicity's sake. Now, for raising the c-bet when you don't make your set, you would need to flip two coins and get heads on both. The odds are 3/1 against it. So basically you would be raising 25% of the time.

1 out of 8 trials you are raising with a made set. (12.5%)
The other 7 trials where you don't make your set:
1.75 out of 7 you are raising. (25%)
5.25 out of 7 you are folding (75%)
You would be raising almost 35% of the time.

Hmm, the game theory bit is interesting, but there's so many factors I haven't even began to look at. I'm plenty sure that stack sizes, the size of the pot and the c-bet on the flop, image of villian, and image of hero are all super-important (of course). Against a smart opponent, this could be an nice way to mix it up though.