Comparing odds.

I was reading this article - http://www.thepokerforum.com/pokermath2.htm

"So that makes the ratio of cards you don't need to need 35 to 12 or around 3 to 1. You would have to put 35/12 into its simplest form and its around 3/1 not exact (the exact figure is 2.916 repeating). Round that off to 3 to 1. The pot would have to be at least 3 times the size of the bet. "

How is that 3-1? What math did he do to figure out it was 3-1?

my teacher just explained this to us the other day for a totally unrelated purpose but it works here. hope its clear.

think of it in parts, the smaller number being one part
47/12 = 4 = 1 part
47/35= 12 = 3 parts

so, 35 is 3 parts, 12 is 1 part, so 3:1.


I think an easier way to think of it is this. You have 12 outs. 12 x 2 + fudging a little is 25%. So you are going to win this pot 25% of the time and lose it 75% of the time. so, 25% is 1 part, 75% is 3 parts, 3:1.

if you don't think that's true or can't take it on intuition alone, consider it this way. 25% to win, 75% to lose. If you ran this hand 4 times, with the expected 3 wins and 1 loss, what does the pot need to be to break even? Let's say the pot is 300 and you need to call 100. 4 run throughs of calling. you spent 400 dollars calling those 4 times. you won once, and got the 300+100 so 400 dollar pot, and you've just broken even.

Hmm, still a bit foggy.

Would you mind doing a few more examples please?

A question about pot odds, why do you calculate them?

If you have a good hand, your going to call/raise regardless of the pot odds right?
Same with a bad one, check/fold? What's the point of calculating them? I really don't decide my calls based on math, nor pot odds.

But I am trying to get them all down for when I need them. The people I play with know nothing about pot odds, outs, etc...

Originally Posted by CaseAce

Hmm, still a bit foggy.
Would you mind doing a few more examples please?

Why don't you try? You are 80% to win, what are the odds of winning?

Originally Posted by CaseAce

A question about pot odds, why do you calculate them?

Lets play a coin-flip game.
I pay you $2 if heads come, you pay me $1 if tails come. Do you play this game?
I pay you $1 if heads come, you pay me $2 if tails come. Do you play this game?

Originally Posted by CaseAce

If you have a good hand, your going to call/raise regardless of the pot odds right?

If you are best then you want to make a bet that if your opponent calls, will be making a mistake.

Originally Posted by CaseAce

Same with a bad one, check/fold?

What's bad? 93o on a AKQ flop, or QJ on the same flop?

Originally Posted by CaseAce

What's the point of calculating them? I really don't decide my calls based on math, nor pot odds.

Given above, pot is 100. Do you call a 10 bet with 93o? What about QJ? What about a 100 bet with QJ? Odds allow an analytical answer to these questions.

Originally Posted by CaseAce

But I am trying to get them all down for when I need them. The people I play with know nothing about pot odds, outs, etc...

I briefly looked for an odds post but couldn't find one. You will own these people if you put in the time to learn.

I tried to explain odds to a friend at work. One day he won our little tourney and told me that using odds messed up his game, and that playing by feeling was better. He rivered a winning card at least 5 times in that game. It will be awhile before he wins again. Do you see why?

Originally Posted by swiggidy

I briefly looked for an odds post but couldn't find one. You will own these people if you put in the time to learn.

I briefly looked for a general odds post. If you want to know how they are used click on any random thread and there is at least a 50% chance (1:1 odds) that odds are discussed.

"Why don't you try? You are 80% to win, what are the odds of winning?"

4-1?

It looks like you get the gist of it:

Here's the FTR link that explains odds:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/start_pot_odds.html

If you really care you should read HOH 1. It's very clear.

You should really read everything here:
http://poker-strategy.flopturnriver.com/

after you get a little experience too, implied odds let you fudge a little. calling a halfpot bet with a straight draw might not be correct, but you're often going to make up for it on the next hand.

so just remember, outs x 2 = % to hit an out per card to come, and then think, well this bet is probably good/bad/ugly for me to call given my outs, and the odds of me getting paid off if i hit are good/bad/ugly, so i should do x.

I know how to find out the pot odds, and outs and stuff. I just don't know how to make the outs into ratios...

Theres 120 in the pot, someone bets 20 into it, the pot odds are 7-1 right?

yep

Originally Posted by CaseAce

Theres 120 in the pot, someone bets 20 into it, the pot odds are 7-1 right?

You mean someone bets 20 so now the pot is 140 and it cost you 20 to call correct?

Originally Posted by CaseAce

I know how to find out the pot odds, and outs and stuff. I just don't know how to make the outs into ratios...

Lets say you see the flop and decide you have 6 outs. That means 6 cards help, and conversly 41 cards don't help. Your ratio is 6:41. Divide both sides by 6, the ratio is also 1:6.8, round to 1:7.

The other way people do it is say 6 out of 47 cards help, so you'll catch your card 13% of the time. So the ratio is 13%:87%. Divide both sides by 13% and we get 1:6.7 (note it's off by .1 because of rounding errors).

The other way people do it is say 6 out of 47 cards help, so you'll catch your card 13% of the time. So the ratio is 13%:87%. Divide both sides by 13% and we get 1:6.7 (note it's off by .1 because of rounding errors).

I understand the ratios now, thanks. But, you confused me with the 6 out of 47 cards left. Is that right after the flop? And the turns about to hit? I have been using the 4, 2 rule. So wouldn't I multiply the 6 by 4?

Or have I been doing it wrong the whole time?

And for my other post, yeah the pot is 120 and my opponent bet 20 into it.

Originally Posted by CaseAce

I understand the ratios now, thanks. But, you confused me with the 6 out of 47 cards left. Is that right after the flop? And the turns about to hit? I have been using the 4, 2 rule. So wouldn't I multiply the 6 by 4?

Or have I been doing it wrong the whole time?

I think this is an idea from limit holdem. For example, if you bet from the button, you might get checked too on the turn, "buying a free card". In that case it would be 6*4 because you would have two chances to catch one of your six cards. If you are facing an aggro NL opponent then you will not get the river card without paying again, so you should be using the 6 * 2 rule (unless you go all-in, then you get 2 cards).

So to answer your question, "It depends".

So, if you have decided you weren't going to put another chip in the pot unless you made your hand, going to the turn, you would multiply by 2. I get it.

Now let me try.

Pot : 375. Someone bets 90. Pot is now 465.
Pot odds are...around 5-1?

I have 78 of hearts, flop is 9,10,A rainbow. I have 8 outs. 8*4=32%

Would it be 32%-68%? What would that ratio become?

Btw, I really appreciate you coming back and posting and helping me out. Thanks alot.

http://casinogambling.about.com/libr...y/aa050103.htm

The Rule of Four -Two.

"The rule of four-two, as I like to call it, is an easier way to figure the odds for any situation where you know your outs. It is not completely accurate but it will give you a quick "ballpark" figure of your chances for making a hand. Here is how it works.

With two cards to come after the flop you multiply your number of outs by four. With one card to come after the turn, you multiply your number of outs by two. This will give you a quick figure to work with. If you have a four-card flush after the flop you have nine outs. With two cards to come, you multiply the nine by four and you get 36 percent chance of making the flush. The chart shows the true odds at 35 percent. With one card to come you multiply nine by two and get 18 percent. The chart shows that the true figure is 19.6. It is not completely accurate but it is pretty close, and it is an easy calculation to do in your head."

Alright, I can safly say that I think I can get the pot odds and outs pretty easily now.

But converting percentages to ratios, is something I hate, and no nothing about.

Did I do the math right in my post before Harry's?
I'm gonna take a stab and say 32%-68% would become...

2.1-1? And the pot odds are 5-1.

Which should be higher to mathematically make a right call?

You want to have a better chance at winning than you have to pay.. so if you have to pay 2:1 for a 5:1 chance to win, not good. (unless implied odds make up for it)

So, I was right with 2.1?

So I want my outs ratio to be high than my pot ratio.

Should it be a certain amount higher? Or can it be like just slightly over it, and mathematically it would be a right call?

If the outs ratio is equal to or higher than the pot ratio (to use your terms), then it's basically an auto-call. This is given that you WILL win the pot if you hit your outs ofcourse, but in the case of flush or straight draws this is usually so.

For example, by the turn, the pot is $10, and you have a flush draw.. so 5.5:1 or something to hit the river. Opponent bets $2.. you have to call 6:1, so this is an auto-call.

Now let's say he bets $4. That like 3.5:1 to call.. so it's not an auto-call.. but if you think you can make some more money if you hit on the river, then you can consider calling anyway. Poker is all about estimating these implied odds, that is why I mention it here in conjunction with pot odds.

Originally Posted by Harry

With two cards to come after the flop you multiply your number of outs by four. With one card to come after the turn, you multiply your number of outs by two.

Right, my point was...

Just because your're on the flop, doesn't mean you can multiply your outs by 4. If you are going all-in, are playing a weak passive player, or even a solid player whom you know will check to you on the turn, then yes you can multiply by four.

If you're OOP against a solid player, and they will bet on the turn if checked to. Now you have to figure that you need the next card to make your hand, if it doesn't then you're done. In this case, even though it's on the flop you essentially have one card to come.

Originally Posted by CaseAce

So, I was right with 2.1?

Yes this is correct. Note again, 32:68 is a ratio (of percentages), 15:32 is a ratio (of cards), 1:2.1 is a ratio (simplified for perspective). It's all about simplifying fractions.

Originally Posted by CaseAce

Btw, I really appreciate you coming back and posting and helping me out. Thanks alot.

yw

I think I got it down now.

Pot is 1000, someone bet 500 into it. Pots now 1500, my pot odds are 3-1.

I have a flush draw on the flop. 9 outs * 4 = 36%
36%-64%
1.7-1?

I should fold? My pot odds are lower than my outs ratio. Right?

Originally Posted by CaseAce

Pot is 1000, someone bet 500 into it. Pots now 1500, my pot odds are 3-1.

I have a flush draw on the flop. 9 outs * 4 = 36%
36%-64%
1.7-1?

1-1.7 (just being anal)

Originally Posted by CaseAce

I should fold? My pot odds are lower than my outs ratio. Right?

Here you should call. We'll round your odds to 1:2, so you win once, and loose twice. When you win you get 1500 (don't count your own money you are adding). When you loose twice it's 2*500 = 1000. So making this call yields 1500 - 1000 = +500, which is good.

Mathematically this is a fine example, but practically it isn't. The river card may not be free, the odds of you hitting your flush on the turn is 9 * 2 = 18%, which is about 1:4.

Now you win 1500 once, loose 500 4 times. 1500 - 2000 = -500, which is bad.

That's what confuses me. When people say you will have to win this many times, outta this many times. It looks simple enough, just I think I'm making it more confusing than it should be.

I think it's called the BEP? Break even percentage?

"The river card may not be free, the odds of you hitting your flush on the turn is 9 * 2 = 18%, which is about 1:4."

Bad. I notice the that is higher, higher the worse? Lower the better?

Originally Posted by CaseAce

I think I got it down now.

Pot is 1000, someone bet 500 into it. Pots now 1500, my pot odds are 3-1.

I have a flush draw on the flop. 9 outs * 4 = 36%
36%-64%
1.7-1?

I should fold? My pot odds are lower than my outs ratio. Right?

This is why I don't use ratio's, it just adds needless confusion.

Pot is 1000, someone bets 500 into it. Pot is 1500, you have to pay 500 into what will be a 2000 pot or 25%. This is the same as 3:1.

Now, you have a flush draw. Odds to hit over turn+river is 36%. But: Odds to hit on the turn alone is 18% (4.5:1). And 25%/3:1 (what you have to pay) is more than 18%/4.5:1 (the chance you hit your flush).

So by pot odds alone this is not a call.

If you calculate over turn+river, which is assuming you don't have to pay again to see the river card, then we get: We pay 25%/3:1 for a 36%/2:1 chance to hit. So you have odds to call. You came to the wrong conclusion here somehow. If you look at the percentages though, it's a lot clearer.

Which do you want higher: risk or reward?

Two scenarios to consider:
You pay me $1 if I roll a 1-5 with a die. I pay you $3 if I roll a 6.
3:1 odds on something with a 1:5 chance of winning?

You pay me $1 if you roll a 1-4 with a die. I pay you $3 if you roll a 5 or 6.
3:1 odds on something with a 1:2 chance of winning?

Jack' makes a good point. But you have to either convert the pot odds to a percentage, or convert your win percentage to odds. Whatever suits you is fine.

Just want to correct a couple of things from a few posts ago...

Originally Posted by CaseAce

So I want my outs ratio to be high than my pot ratio.

Originally Posted by jackvance

If the outs ratio is equal to or higher than the pot ratio (to use your terms), then it's basically an auto-call.

These are backwards. You want your pots odds to be higher than your "outs ratio" as you put it (your odds against making the hand).

Example: If your opponent makes a small turn bet, say $3 into a $12 pot, giving you 5:1 pot odds (you need to bet $3 to win $15), and you have a draw to the nut flush, then it's an insta-call, because you're about a 4:1 underdog to make your hand. He's pricing you in by giving you pot odds greater than your odds against making your hand. If he bets $5 into the pot then it's a toss-up and you have to decide whether he's going to put any more money into the pot if your flush hits (implied odds). If he bets $10, it's a clear fold, unless he's a terrible player and you think he'll pay off a big bet on the river if you make your flush.

Hrmm, I ordered HOH, hopefully it explains this in there.

I just have alot of trouble converting the ratios into percentages and vice versa.

Originally Posted by zook

These are backwards. You want your pots odds to be higher than your "outs ratio" as you put it (your odds against making the hand).

what?..

Originally Posted by CaseAce

Hrmm, I ordered HOH, hopefully it explains this in there.

Great book, but I'm not 100% sure it covers it. I think it does though. If not, Sklansky's Theory of Poker should be your next buy, imo.

Originally Posted by CaseAce

I just have alot of trouble converting the ratios into percentages and vice versa.

I never do a conversion. I always use ratios. It's easy to figure out pot odds... just divide the total pot size by the amount you'll have to put in to call. Then you just need to remember the odds of making your hand. The numbers are here:

http://www.tightpoker.com/poker_odds.html

Odds for all draws are in the first chart. Just remember flush and open straight and that should cover most of your draws. Or print out the chart and keep it handy.

Originally Posted by jackvance

Originally Posted by zook

These are backwards. You want your pots odds to be higher than your "outs ratio" as you put it (your odds against making the hand).

what?..

You want to be getting better pot odds than your odds against making the hand. A flush is 4:1 against, so you want to be getting higher than 4:1 pot odds. Correct?

.. ok this is why I hate ratio's..

but anyways, I guess I was using "higher" as in "a better chance".. I just took the original poster's wording.

Originally Posted by zook

Originally Posted by jackvance

Originally Posted by zook

These are backwards. You want your pots odds to be higher than your "outs ratio" as you put it (your odds against making the hand).

what?..

You want to be getting better pot odds than your odds against making the hand. A flush is 4:1 against, so you want to be getting higher than 4:1 pot odds. Correct?

Thanks for posting that link, it pretty much explains what I am confused on.

Thank you everyone.

Edit :
Odds = (100 / 20) - 1
= 5 - 1
= 4:1

In that link. Do you always use 100?

It's under How to calculate hand odds (the shorter way):

Odds = (100 / 20) - 1
= 5 - 1
= 4:1

In that link. Do you always use 100?

It's under How to calculate hand odds (the shorter way):

Originally Posted by CaseAce

In that link. Do you always use 100?

It's for 100%. Unless you're giving 110% at the table, yes.

Sweet, looks pretty simple.