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 Originally Posted by zook
Originally Posted by paulwright
Renton will hopefully clarify - but here's my 2 cent analysis. Odds of hitting set are 1 in 8 - so if their stack is only 8x the bet then if you hit you need to ensure you always get their entire stack to make the odds profitable. However, if their stack is at least 15x then you factor in those occasions when you only get a portion of their stack (ie they sniff your set / their AK misses), or the rare times you get smashed with a higher set etc, straighted, flushed etc
Thanks Paul. I agree you should factor in the possibility of not stacking your opponent, I' m just curious how he did that to come up with the 15x number. [nitpicking] Your chance of hitting your set without your opp hitting his are ~1 in 9, so you need 8:1 implied odds to make it +EV. [/nitpicking] Without using any math whatsoever, it seems like you should start with ~10x as a guideline and adjust it upward for players who know are able to get away from good hands postflop. I could be missing something though.
There was a thread that discussed this in depth recently...the basic rule is called "the 10x rule" on here, but Lukie and others feel it should be 15x+ for the reasons already outlined here.
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