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Chasing outs heads-up

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  1. #1

    Default Chasing outs heads-up

    This is from my most recent SnG. I feel like I played really well all match, and if there's one hand that swung the match, it's this one. We had been going back and forth heads-up for a long time (raising from the button with anything playable), and I was hoping to catch a card and bust him on this one.

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00+$0.20 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (2 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    Hero (Button) (t7315)
    SB (t6185)

    Hero's M: 24.38

    Preflop: Hero is Button with 8, J
    Hero raises to t600, SB calls t400

    Flop: (t1200) 10, 2, 3 (2 players)
    SB bets t400, Hero calls t400

    Turn: (t2000) Q (2 players)
    SB bets t1600, Hero calls t1600

    River: (t5200) 7 (2 players)
    SB bets t3585 (All-In), Hero folds

    Total pot: t5200


    I was putting him on a middle PP or a pair of tens after the turn, so I figured I had 15 or so outs going to the river. Should I have played this differently? I had just bet on a stone-cold bluff on the last hand (27 on rainbow board), but he called with a gutshot and it unfortunately went to showdown (where we split the pot, interestingly enough), so I'm not sure how much stock he would have put in a raise on this hand. Still, should I have folded or raised somewhere, or did I play this one correctly?
  2. #2
    Stacks's Avatar
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    Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
    Have you read up about pot odds, and implied odds?? This will help with your situation.
  3. #3
    Yeah, I know about them, which is why I figured I had to make the call. Putting 1600 into a 3600 pot represents 30.8% of the resulting pot. Since 15 outs to the river has a 32.6% chance of hitting, I'm already getting pot odds. I figure on being able to get more on the river with a winning hand as well, so I also had some implied odds.

    I guess I just wanted some reassurance , and also perhaps to know whether pushing or raising at any point would have given me the fold equity to make the hand even better, or if ICM calls for anything different (I'm less familiar with ICM than odds, although I know that sometimes the results can be counterintuitive).

    Actually, looking back, it turns out this wasn't my worst hand. The very next hand I called a big pre-flop bet with K8o, which I of course had to fold after the flop. This hand cost me just as much as that other one, so maybe I should have taken tilt equity into account on the above hand as well .
  4. #4
    Stacks's Avatar
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    Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
    You could take this hand to the SNG forum and get better answers, as while I know about ICM, I haven't played SNGs in a while.

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