Cbets

I felt like my cbets were really getting snapped up today, so I decided to do a little bit of analysis via poker tracker to see if they were leaking me money. For the record I'm a VPIP: 22/PFR: 7.5/post flop aggro: 2.5. I went through every hand over the last 2 days and looked for every cbet. I counted a cbet as anytime I was the PFR, I didn't have a pocket pair, and I didn't hit. I tallied my net gain vs. my net loss from the cbet(s) alone, not counting the money I put in preflop. I think net gain actually underestimated the value of my cbets as it only counted money I hadn't put into the pot, but even with that and even in the middle of what seemed like a rough streak they were still profitable, earning about 0.8BB per cbet. Okay, so I'm feeling a little better about the issue and I'll probably start cbetting even more.

But, going through all this I noticed a few major issues:

1) My 2nd barrels were a major leak. I lost a lot more than I won with them. And I only fire 2nd barrels about 20% of the time. I'm beginning to think I need to hold off on a 2nd barrel unless I've got a definite read. The Villain has called my preflop raise and my 1st barrel, at this point I'm behind and/or he's going to make a play that my hand isn't good enough to fight back with for this to be profitable?

2) If I get check raised, I should fold. And since I'm cbetting over 50% of the time after raising, an aware player can check raise me w/ any 2 for an automatic profit, and I felt like that was happening a lot today.

3) OOP I bet, they call, I check, they bet, I fold, or w/ position they check, I bet, they call, they check, I check, they bet the pot on the river and I fold. Once again, an aware player can use either of these lines for automatic profit.


What can I do to make this more profitable? I hate to admit it, but sometimes I just called the check raise and/or turn bet because I thought the guy was screwing with me. And sometimes he was, but even if he was I usually had to fold to the turn/river bet and in this stretch of hands even when he was making a move he caught a pair on the turn or the river. And there is nothing like calling that turn minraise only to catch a card on the river and find out that it made the Villain's 2 pair. I could reraise but that's an awfully expensive way to find out if I'm really behind.

So this is what I've come up with so far. I need a read before I can really fight back. The first time Villain c/r's or turn bets me I fold, because I'm behind a lot of the time at this point and its not worth finding out if I'm ahead. Now the next time I raise Villain calls and pulls the same crap again - 3-bet if he c/r'ed me or fire a 2nd barrel and fold to any aggro? Or should I just fold and stop cbetting this guy until I have a hand? And if any of this is familiar, after a couple of these scenarios does it ever feel like someone put a big "bluff me" sign on your back and the whole table starts attacking your cbets?

Finally, to turn this around and use this for evil rather than good:

Wait till you've got at least 100 hands of history so the PFR % is accurate, look for anyone with a PFR of 7% or higher with a post flop aggro factor of 1.5 or more, since you're calling w/ pocket pairs anyway you should be ahead after most flops so check raise any semi-ragged flop for fun and profit. (The call flop, hope that they check the turn then bet the turn seems more expensive and less reliable since you are giving them a free card and they may fire the 2nd barrel).

2 Questions:

1.) What level are you playing?
2.) What size c-bet do you usually fire?

1) 50NL and 100NL (I'm starting the transition, so right now I'm playing 1 100NL table and 2 50NL tables.

2) 66%-90% of the pot depending on board texture and number of opponents, and I bet the same amount whether I hit or miss. If the board is really scary or if I hit really hard I might only bet 50%, but this is pretty rare.

take a look at how the texture of the flop affects your cbetting profits.

if you are check folding the turn after being called on the flop then flush draw> AKo on a 2 flush flop.

Also remember that the more they call your cbets, the more they are calling when you have AA. You cant look at this sort of profit/loss in a vacuum.

Hi. Do you have PAHUD, if not, get it, turn on the stat 'folds continuation bet'. This shoud tell you some things...

In general, it is not a good idea to c bet w/ out nothing ( no pair, draw) agaisnt someone who is going to call with bottom pair. You will have to find out who is just floating though and deal with them appropriately.

I've got PAHUD, but it doesn't work w/ B2B which is where I am primarily playing right now, and I am missing it. Game Time + is okay, but it doesn't have nearly as much information (that and I'll eventually go blind with all its flickering).

I've been taking stats from poker tracker and making notes on the players - but I can't find several of the stats I use w/ PAHUD such as the continuation bet stats and calls preflop raise. Any idea how to get this straight from poker tracker?

And Pelion, I'm not sure where you are going with this. Are you recommending not cbetting a 2-suited board? Most of the time the villain(s) won't be on a flush draw in this situation and I won't really know if they have a draw until after they call. What other texture issues should I consider?

Originally Posted by Ebene

And Pelion, I'm not sure where you are going with this. Are you recommending not cbetting a 2-suited board? Most of the time the villain(s) won't be on a flush draw in this situation and I won't really know if they have a draw until after they call. What other texture issues should I consider?

Im not saying you should stop. Im just saying you should see how your profitability compares when the flop is 2 suited to when the flop is rainbow. It will be difficult to filter because it is player dependant.

e.g. against a tight player (who could be sethunting but wont calls with Ax or KJs) then ill cbet a flop of A53 2 suited.

Against someone who will call down with any flush draw, any A and J5 im just going to give up while the pot is small and wait until i have AQ on the same flop to value bet him dead.

It might be that cbetting on 2 flush flops is unprofitable, or it might be that cbetting on low card flops is unprofitable, or cbetting A high flops is unprofitable. You will have to look through your stats to find out.

I suspect that against tight players it is more profitable to cbet A high flops than low card flops (because they expect you to have hit), whereas against loose players it is more profitable to cbet low flops than A high flops (because they could have Ax and dont care what you have). This is just something ive been thinking about lately. Havnt gone through the hands yet but its something to think about. Tight players are generally less likely to call preflop with 2 suited cards than say... a low PP, whereas fairly loose (and bad) players are probably more likely to have something like KJs than 22.

i hate to admit it but pelion is right. c-bets serve for more than just winning the current pot at hand. They serve to build image and win more when you actually have a hand.

Originally Posted by bigboy5540

i hate to admit it

why?

Originally Posted by Triptan3s

Hi. Do you have PAHUD, if not, get it, turn on the stat 'folds continuation bet'. This shoud tell you some things...

What ranges do you have set for this?