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 Originally Posted by melinda27
rarely, but it is +EV
I assume youre referring to the Sklansky-Chubukov numbers and I think you have misunderstood them.
Reasons why open pushing with AK here is probably -EV:
1) Sklansky-Chubukov rankings are for when it is folded to you in the small blind. In this hand there are 8 people still in the hand. The odds of one of them having a better hand than AK are massivly higher than with only 1 person to act.
2) Sklansky-Chubukov rankings assume you have no information about the one person left to act. If the BB accidently flips over his cards aswell then you would clearly fold the times he held AA.
If instead of flipping his cards he tried to raise out of turn (and you know he is more likely to raise good cards than bad cards) then the chance of him having AK beat go up so you are less likely to push.
If the guy raising is in early position and there has been a caller before him AND there are still players to act behind then it is even more likely one of them has AK beaten and a push is very likely -EV. Im not going to go into the maths but you should be able to see that this is a very different situation from having 1 person left in the pot and no information about the cards.
3) Even if pushing is +EV it isnt necessarily the most +EV. Im pretty sure you understand this already but its a fairly important point.
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