Can I beat the NL$100?

Sorry to put this here but I thought this was the best forum for it. Please tell me if these hands are awful or I'm just running bad. I think it's likely a combo.

Sometimes I bet the flop, this time I didn't because of the amount of people in the pot.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($22.80)
SB ($92.85)
Hero ($121.60)
UTG ($69.50)
MP1 ($59.65)
MP2 ($51.90)
CO ($89)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7, 6.
UTG calls $1, MP1 calls $1, 2 folds, Button calls $1, 1 fold, Hero checks.

Flop: ($4.50) 2, 9, 8 (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($4.50) 3 (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $3, MP1 folds, Button calls $3, Hero calls $3.

River: ($13.50) T (3 players)
Hero bets $5, UTG raises to $15, Button folds, Hero raises to $35, UTG raises to $65.5, Hero calls $30.50.

Final Pot: $144.50

Villian here is a total donk.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($138.90)
UTG+1 ($63.35)
MP1 ($50)
MP2 ($90.25)
CO ($8.60)
Button ($70.90)
SB ($192.50)
Hero ($71.15)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4, K.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, 1 fold, MP2 calls $1, CO calls $1, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($5) 9, K, 4 (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, thanx4chips bets $4, MP2 calls $4, CO calls $4, SB folds, Hero raises to $20, UTG+1 folds, thanx4chips folds, MP2 raises to $89.25, CO calls $3.60 (All-In), Hero calls $50.15 (All-In).

Turn: ($176) 6 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($176) T (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $176

I was just totally lost in this hand. Villian is a loose sort of aggressive playa.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($54)
SB ($101.10)
BB ($32.40)
UTG ($136.20)
UTG+1 ($95.55)
MP1 ($108.75)
MP2 ($59)
MP3 ($68.45)
Hero ($60)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T, A.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, 3 folds, Hero raises to $5, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $4.

Flop: ($11.50) A, Q, 7 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $8, Hero calls $8.

Turn: ($27.50) T (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $12, Hero raises to $47, UTG+1 calls $35.

River: ($121.50) 2 (2 players)

Final Pot: $121.50

Villian here is loose/passive preflop and not enough hands to know about postflop play.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+1 ($142.55)
MP1 ($100)
MP2 ($27)
CO ($95.50)
Hero ($99.35)
SB ($224.85)
BB ($100)
UTG ($57.55)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5, 5.
UTG calls $1, 4 folds, Hero calls $1, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: ($3.50) 8, K, 3 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($3.50) K (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $2, BB folds, UTG calls $2.

River: ($7.50) 5 (2 players)
UTG bets $5, Hero raises to $20, UTG raises to $35, Hero raises to $96.35, UTG calls $19.55 (All-In).

Final Pot: $158.40

Villian is a taggish regular, not a nit

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($199)
UTG ($101.35)
UTG+1 ($90.15)
MP1 ($98.85)
MP2 ($214.35)
CO ($105.30)
Hero ($98.50)
SB ($97)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5, 6.
3 folds, MP2 calls $1, CO calls $1, Hero calls $1, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($5) 8, 7, 4 (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, Hero bets $3, SB folds, BB calls $3, MP2 folds, CO folds.

Turn: ($11) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7, BB raises to $16, Hero calls $9.

River: ($43) A (2 players)
BB bets $27, Hero calls $27.

Final Pot: $97

Villian here raises >20% of his hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 ($45.90)
Hero ($59.85)
MP3 ($113.15)
CO ($188.85)
Button ($18.50)
SB ($101.40)
BB ($100)
UTG ($106.35)
UTG+1 ($29.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, K.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, MP1 raises to $4, Hero raises to $13, 5 folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $9.

Flop: ($28.50) 7, Q, 9 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $20, MP1 raises to $32.9, Hero calls $12.90.

Turn: ($94.30) 2 (2 players)

River: ($94.30) J (2 players)

Final Pot: $94.30

Everybody likes this right? I had no hands on this guy, he just sat in the BB the time before this hand came up.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($27.95)
Hero ($108.65)
MP1 ($36)
MP2 ($90.65)
MP3 ($59)
CO ($132.40)
Button ($75.10)
SB ($100)
BB ($49)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K, A.
UTG raises to $4, Hero raises to $12, 7 folds, UTG raises to $27.95, Hero calls $15.95.

Flop: ($57.40) 8, Q, 9 (2 players)

Turn: ($57.40) T (2 players)

River: ($57.40) 9 (2 players)

Final Pot: $57.40

Sorry for the long annoying post. Please help my leaks! From most of these hands it feels like any 3bet is at least AA/KK preflop and a set postflop, any c/r = nuts, any river bet = take more seriously.

1.
Id probably 3bet the river, but when opp 4-bets meh. Looks like QJ and not a set, but i think a set calls your 3bet so id 3bet regardless.

2.
Fold, MP2 has a set IMO. If he bought it give him credit for getting stacked by you soon when you flop a set here.

3.
Villain has a set or a strong flush+straight draw. Id call the flop for sure, and maybe call the turn but certainly not raise.

4.
looks fine. Ugh if utg had 88 or kk actually lol.

5.
Fine, id be scared of T9 here rather than a set. I might 3bet turn it depends on how fishy our opp is.

6.
Check behind. Typical 100nl donk is going to love his AQ here. Normally i check behind and push over the turn bet. Leaves a 100nl player wondering if its a massive bluff with AK (which it sometimes is but calling that sort of play is definitly -ev for AQ) QQ is possible too i guess.
If you play it like you did, shorty is commited if he flopped a pair so you cant buy it. Also, checking to allow for a turn card forces shorty to bet anything he holds which commits him when he has 5 or less outs.
FWIW, i dont mind giving this flop up when i miss for the amount of times shorty gets himself committed with his hand on the turn.

7.
Standard call.

FWIW, stars players play with their cards face up nearly always so a 3bet does equal strength on any street. But, they are very pwnable becuase they expect a preflop raisor to have a certain range and when you dont hold that range they stack off with second best hands very very often, especially sets in fr games.

hand 1
i def stack off here

hand 2
i fold to the huge reraise ,

hand 3
fold the flop

hand4
standard

hand5
standard

hand 6
meh, standard i guess
hand 7
standard

nothing is way off here , just running bad which happens from time to time ...

1. I'd say don't 3bet the river if a 4bet will make you want to kill yourself.
2. I fold to the all in. Yes, he's a fish but his line screams the nuts/near nuts. I have yet to see this kind of line turn out being a bluff.
3. I fold the flop.
4. I'm def stacking off here.
5. Fine
6. I don't like it. What are you hoping for? AJ? Flush draw? Also, why are you short on some of these hands? Playing short gets you into pretty iffy situations like this.
7. Fine

Hand number 3 shall I comment on.

hmmm
raise here you must
if on a flush draw is he, improper calling odds be getting will he
if trips or two pair has he, reraising will he be.
and folding to him will be ye

or be you not bold
(simply tuck in your junk)
and make a good fold

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7 , 6 .
UTG calls $1, MP1 calls $1, 2 folds, Button calls $1, 1 fold, Hero checks.

Flop: ($4.50) 2 , 9 , 8: Bet this flop, its what you were hoping would come. 1/2 pot

Turn: ($4.50) 3 : Blocking bet this 3, it didnt help anyone. 1/3ish the pot


River: ($13.50) T : Did he hit his gutshot? Maybe the gutshot got good prices all the way down from lack of aggression, just gotta pay the price of passivity

hand #2 Bet out on that flop, you didnt so make your check raise at least 25/30. FOld to further aggression

hand #3 Raise the flop, Turn: raise a 1/2- pot size bet fold to a 2/3+ size bet, bet 2/3 pot fold to a C/R, River: You put yourself in a tough spot, i'm figuring him for the Q of hearts with an offsuit K or possibly the K of hearts to go with it, but i'd have thought he'd have raised that from UTG preflop. More aggression would put you in a better spot but in this hand where you are its a fold to a bet.

Hand #4 I bet that flop, probably the turn as well the river plays itsself, seems like after catching his FH villain is praying someone catches the flush, if he's taggish he'd be betting his flush draw on the turn and if he's got a set of 8's the pot is so small he isnt going to make any money unless someone makes a big hand so he has to hope someone does. You've got to get it all in here anyway no matter what monsters under the bed be damned. If he's got it he's got it, thats just poker

hand #5 Your straight ends up being weak but i still get it all in here if i can. Thats why god made a rebuy button.

hand #6 just push the flop since you were willing to call an all in from him (this was the hardest hand for me to find a good line on, still dont think i have one)

hand #7 standard, you got all in with AK preflop which isnt a bad plan ever.

Originally Posted by melinda27

hand #7 standard, you got all in with AK preflop which isnt a bad plan ever.

it's a bad plan A LOT OF TIMES. the only reason it's ok here is b/c villain is short.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by melinda27

hand #7 standard, you got all in with AK preflop which isnt a bad plan ever.

excuse me? it's a bad plan A LOT OF TIMES. the only reason it's ok here is b/c villain is short.

Pushing AK face up shows a profit. If the stacks are 166 BB or less. So how is pushing AK when they dont know what you have a mistake "a lot of times" ??

Originally Posted by melinda27

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by melinda27

hand #7 standard, you got all in with AK preflop which isnt a bad plan ever.

excuse me? it's a bad plan A LOT OF TIMES. the only reason it's ok here is b/c villain is short.

Pushing AK face up shows a profit. If the stacks are 166 BB or less. So how is pushing AK when they dont know what you have a mistake "a lot of times" ??

donks are happy to get all-in in cash games with AK all the time. don't be a donk. if you get into a situation where you are being 3bet (which by many ssnl players = QQ+/maybe AK) preflop by a sane opponent then i really hope you aren't shoving AK back in their face regularly.

I should have speciified what i meant, I mean open pushing AK shows a profit.

Originally Posted by melinda27

I should have speciified what i meant, I mean open pushing AK shows a profit.

lol i hope you don't do that either

rarely, but it is +EV

Originally Posted by melinda27

rarely, but it is +EV

I assume youre referring to the Sklansky-Chubukov numbers and I think you have misunderstood them.
Reasons why open pushing with AK here is probably -EV:

1) Sklansky-Chubukov rankings are for when it is folded to you in the small blind. In this hand there are 8 people still in the hand. The odds of one of them having a better hand than AK are massivly higher than with only 1 person to act.

2) Sklansky-Chubukov rankings assume you have no information about the one person left to act. If the BB accidently flips over his cards aswell then you would clearly fold the times he held AA.
If instead of flipping his cards he tried to raise out of turn (and you know he is more likely to raise good cards than bad cards) then the chance of him having AK beat go up so you are less likely to push.
If the guy raising is in early position and there has been a caller before him AND there are still players to act behind then it is even more likely one of them has AK beaten and a push is very likely -EV. Im not going to go into the maths but you should be able to see that this is a very different situation from having 1 person left in the pot and no information about the cards.

3) Even if pushing is +EV it isnt necessarily the most +EV. Im pretty sure you understand this already but its a fairly important point.

Originally Posted by melinda27

rarely, but it is +EV

no

n/m i see them now

i'm not talking about this hand in particular where there were 8 people left to act, i'm talking about open pushing it in general. and if it it isnt +ev, show me why it isnt? I've been doing the math and cant find a spot where it isnt. Its not how i play the hand but it isnt a bad way to play the hand. of the 1274 times i've had AK in this database i've pushed it all in 3 times. It has its uses and spots, it has shown a profit.

Originally Posted by melinda27

n/m i see them now

i'm not talking about this hand in particular where there were 8 people left to act, i'm talking about open pushing it in general. and if it it isnt +ev, show me why it isnt? I've been doing the math and cant find a spot where it isnt. Its not how i play the hand but it isnt a bad way to play the hand. of the 1274 times i've had AK in this database i've pushed it all in 3 times. It has its uses and spots, it has shown a profit.

did you read any of my post?

Originally Posted by melinda27

n/m i see them now

i'm not talking about this hand in particular where there were 8 people left to act, i'm talking about open pushing it in general. and if it it isnt +ev, show me why it isnt? I've been doing the math and cant find a spot where it isnt. Its not how i play the hand but it isnt a bad way to play the hand. of the 1274 times i've had AK in this database i've pushed it all in 3 times. It has its uses and spots, it has shown a profit.

Open pushing AK is a great way to:

A. Take down the blinds
B. Get called by AA/KK
C. Maybe get called by a worse PP and flip for your stack

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by melinda27

n/m i see them now

i'm not talking about this hand in particular where there were 8 people left to act, i'm talking about open pushing it in general. and if it it isnt +ev, show me why it isnt? I've been doing the math and cant find a spot where it isnt. Its not how i play the hand but it isnt a bad way to play the hand. of the 1274 times i've had AK in this database i've pushed it all in 3 times. It has its uses and spots, it has shown a profit.

Open pushing AK is a great way to:

A. Take down the blinds
B. Get called by AA/KK
C. Maybe get called by a worse PP and flip for your stack

no way are these the only hands that call it by the way, i've been called by much worse aces, by suited kings, by suited QJ. I'm sure once i move out of the micro limits it will be different, but i only play 2/4 and they will call with a ton of junk. The blinds are what you push to take down anyway, any pocket pair doesnt scare me, KK really doesnt scare me either especially if i pushed from late position when all the aces are still alive most likely because people are limping with that junk at the low limits. AA scares me, but I still beat that 13% of the time.

ok lets do us some math

Heres an imaginary hand that you decide to open push. Let me know if you dont like my assumptions.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 ($100)
Hero ($100)
MP3 ($100)
CO ($100)
Button ($100)
SB ($100)
BB ($100)
UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($100)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A , K .
MP1 raises to $4, Hero raises to $100 and is allin . . .

Ok. First off assume everyone else folds except MP1 who is a sensible TAG preflop VPIP 17%/ PFR 7%

From this position hes probably raising . We'll say he raises AA-77, AK-AJ.

Hes a pretty good hand reader with x-ray vision so hes going to call your raise with everything better than AK and fold everything worse. So after you push hes calling with AA-77, and AK.

Hes raising 7.2% of hands and only calling your push with 4.8% so your push makes him fold 2/3 of the time (Ignore the fact that you already hold 1 of the Aces. It doesnt make much difference for the purpose of this argument).

2/3 of the time you win his $4 bet and the $1.50 blinds for a total of $5.50

1/3 of the time he'll have 77+, AK and hell call. Against this range you will win $101.50 41.97% of the time and lose $100 58.030% of the time

1,047,930,048 games 3.745 secs 279,821,107 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 58.0304 % 49.40% 08.63% { 77+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 41.9696 % 33.34% 08.63% { AKo }

So the total EV calculation is

2/3 * +$5.50
+ 1/3 * 0.4197*101.5
- 1/3*0.58030*100

= -$1.47

NOTICE YOUR EXPECTATION IS NEGATIVE

In a real poker game it will be far more complicated than this. You may find players that will call with AQ or AJ and you are very likely to find players who will fold 77 but it's still proves the important point that knowing villain "might" have a strong hand massivly reduces the EV of the situation. Actually it is even worse than this in a real game since any one of the players to act after you could also wake up with a hand.

Pelion on the money. It's not a fucking tourney, dude.

I have pushed AK in situations where I have been called by any PP and YOU KNOW WHAT? I'M BEHIND FROM THE OFF. by all means push with TT, even 99, because you'll be called by AK, you'll be called by 88 - your EV is positive against almost everything. But AK it's not.

in your example that isnt an open push. OPEN push, MP1 already raised

Originally Posted by biondino

I have pushed AK in situations where I have been called by any PP and YOU KNOW WHAT? I'M BEHIND FROM THE OFF. by all means push with TT, even 99, because you'll be called by AK, you'll be called by 88 - your EV is positive against almost everything. But AK it's not.

push TT,99, 88? but not AK...thats ridiculous, your 3 hands are dominated by almost everything in the calling range. AK is dominated by 6 hands of 1251.

Originally Posted by biondino

I have pushed AK in situations where I have been called by any PP and YOU KNOW WHAT? I'M BEHIND FROM THE OFF. by all means push with TT, even 99, because you'll be called by AK, you'll be called by 88 - your EV is positive against almost everything. But AK it's not.

I can see this against maniacs that call as well as raise but against the overwhelming majority of the game I'm talking about doing this with 99 and expecting to get called by worse when called is borderline retarded.

Originally Posted by melinda27

in your example that isnt an open push. OPEN push, MP1 already raised

Ok but you said push in the hand where someone had raised.

Shall I do more maths to show why its silly to open push from any position?

Originally Posted by Pelion

Originally Posted by melinda27

in your example that isnt an open push. OPEN push, MP1 already raised

Ok but you said push in the hand where someone had raised.

Shall I do more maths to show why its silly to open push from any position?

yes please do, and where did i say to push after a raise? I'll reread my posts to make sure i didnt miss it. If i said it i didnt mean it. The only time I push AK after a raise is if i have 3 or 4 limpers with her before it gets to me. Lets make the guy a very loose caller who will call with QQ or better.

Originally Posted by melinda27

no way are these the only hands that call it by the way, i've been called by much worse aces, by suited kings, by suited QJ.

Just b/c you've been called by crap doesn't mean that should be expected a majority of the time. I think you are using selective memory and really exaggerating a bunch.

Originally Posted by melinda27

I'm sure once i move out of the micro limits it will be different, but i only play 2/4 and they will call with a ton of junk.

400NL isn't micro limits. Once again I think you are using selective memory and really exaggerating a bunch.

Originally Posted by melinda27

The blinds are what you push to take down anyway.

Pushing 100BB's into a 1.5BB pot is extremely ridiculous...DUCY?

Originally Posted by melinda27

any pocket pair doesnt scare me

Any pocket pair is ahead of you. Do you like getting your money in when behind often?

Originally Posted by melinda27

KK really doesnt scare me either

KK dominates the crap out of your AK. It is very simple arithmetic.

Originally Posted by melinda27

especially if i pushed from late position when all the aces are still alive most likely because people are limping with that junk at the low limits.

Pushing from LP does not equate to having more live aces.

Originally Posted by melinda27

AA scares me, but I still beat that 13% of the time

but nothing...you are way behind and are going to lose 100BB's very very often.

Like i've said, i've had it 1274 times and open pushed it 3 and i can justify all 3 of those. I'm not going by any memory i'm looking through my hand histories. If you dont like the play dont use it, I do on occasion. I like it and find it to be a winner for me. All 3 times i've open pushed it was from the button with the SB/BB and 2 or 3 people who posted behind.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Also, why are you short on some of these hands? Playing short gets you into pretty iffy situations like this.

I buyin for $60(usually) to get a feel for the table and if the table donks have over $60 I stack up to $100 and if the table donks have <$60 and just regulars have over $60 I don't stack up. If I end up at a table full of nits I leave. I don't rathole so I often end up around $100 anyways and once I hit $90 I buy the last $10. I have found that I get alot more action with $60 than when I have a full stack as well and I think if I always played full stacked I'd be in the red.

Note that this is the first time I have tried this(shortish stacking). I use to think it was a sin not to buyin full but Fnord said it was ok not to buyin full and he is a god, so I listened. Thanks Fnord.

Originally Posted by melinda27

Like i've said, i've had it 1274 times and open pushed it 3 and i can justify all 3 of those. I'm not going by any memory i'm looking through my hand histories. If you dont like the play dont use it, I do on occasion. I like it and find it to be a winner for me. All 3 times i've open pushed it was from the button with the SB/BB and 2 or 3 people who posted behind.

We are not talking about your hands in particular. We are talking about your point that "open pushing AK is +EV."

You don't seem to understand the basic math that shows AK being an underdog to any PP and how absolutely crushed you are vs. AA/KK. I'm talking about this stuff so much b/c knowledge of it is crucial to being a winning player. You shouldn't just shrug off what I just posted and say, "Well the 3 times I did it I was correct." That's close-minded, and we are all trying to be helpful here.

Originally Posted by NLHE lahooozaher

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Also, why are you short on some of these hands? Playing short gets you into pretty iffy situations like this.

I buyin for $60(usually) to get a feel for the table and if the table donks have over $60 I stack up to $100 and if the table donks have <$60 and just regulars have over $60 I don't stack up. If I end up at a table full of nits I leave. I don't rathole so I often end up around $100 anyways and once I hit $90 I buy the last $10. I have found that I get alot more action with $60 than when I have a full stack as well and I think if I always played full stacked I'd be in the red.

Note that this is the first time I have tried this(shortish stacking). I use to think it was a sin not to buyin full but Fnord said it was ok not to buyin full and he is a god, so I listened. Thanks Fnord.

just make sure you aren't calling pfr's that would normally be OK with 100bb's but are too steep with 60bb's.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

You don't seem to understand the basic math that shows AK being an underdog to any PP and how absolutely crushed you are vs. AA/KK. I'm talking about this stuff so much b/c knowledge of it is crucial to being a winning player. You shouldn't just shrug off what I just posted and say, "Well the 3 times I did it I was correct." That's close-minded, and we are all trying to be helpful here.

Giving the situation i said that i use the play in, SB/BB and added post behind players

Give me a hand range thats calling my open push, its not all pocket pairs, Lets give him 77+ and AKs, and AKo..that means he's calling 3.5% of the time and folding 96.5 % of the time. the 3.5% of the time he's calling i'm a 58/42 dog, the 96.5% of the time he folds i win $1.50+the other blind monies

if there's 3 post behinds its about +2.14, 2 post behinds is +1.67, 1 post behind is +1.19. Hell even a dead small blind is only a .04 loss. I dont see how you can say me giving up a winning play is the way to become a winning player. That doesnt make any sense.

Originally Posted by melinda27

Give me a hand range thats calling my open push, its not all pocket pairs, Lets give him 77+ and AKs, and AKo...

nobody is calling an open push with a hand like 77

Originally Posted by melinda27

the 3.5% of the time he's calling i'm a 58/42 dog

this is generally not something to be happy about

out of the times you are called you will lose 100bb's the majority of the time. this is bad and easily negates all those tiny pots you scooped up.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by melinda27

Give me a hand range thats calling my open push, its not all pocket pairs, Lets give him 77+ and AKs, and AKo...

nobody is calling an open push with a hand like 77

Then I made them make a fundamental mistake...correct?

Originally Posted by melinda27

the 3.5% of the time he's calling i'm a 58/42 dog

It is if i'm getting the free money the other 96.5% of the time.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

the times you are called you will lose 100bb's the majority of the time. this is bad and easily negates all those tiny pots you scooped up.

the majority of the time being 58% of the time

Originally Posted by melinda27

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by melinda27

Give me a hand range thats calling my open push, its not all pocket pairs, Lets give him 77+ and AKs, and AKo...

nobody is calling an open push with a hand like 77

Then I made them make a fundamental mistake...correct?

Originally Posted by melinda27

the 3.5% of the time he's calling i'm a 58/42 dog

It is if i'm getting the free money the other 96.5% of the time.

the times you are called you will lose 100bb's the majority of the time. this is bad and easily negates all those tiny pots you scooped up.

the majority of the time being 58% of the time

WHICH MEANS YOU ARE GETTING YOUR MONEY IN BEHIND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by melinda27

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by melinda27

Give me a hand range thats calling my open push, its not all pocket pairs, Lets give him 77+ and AKs, and AKo...

nobody is calling an open push with a hand like 77

Then I made them make a fundamental mistake...correct?

Originally Posted by melinda27

the 3.5% of the time he's calling i'm a 58/42 dog

It is if i'm getting the free money the other 96.5% of the time.

the times you are called you will lose 100bb's the majority of the time. this is bad and easily negates all those tiny pots you scooped up.

the majority of the time being 58% of the time

WHICH MEANS YOU ARE GETTING YOUR MONEY IN BEHIND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

do you not understand this concept? if i get my money in while i'm behind 35 times out of the 1000 hands i'm losing $2030, given an extra blind from a post behind player, the 965 times they all fold i'm winning $2412.50 thats a profit of 382.50 over those 1000 hands. How is this so hard to understand?

you would get called more than 3.5% of the time and most times be a 20/80.

if you want to short stack and push you buy in for like 20bbs. that strategy actually works but there is a ton of variance and its gay as hell.

Is there seriously a 30 post discussion in this thread talking about open pushing AK with 160 bbs????

Originally Posted by bearcats05

you would get called more than 3.5% of the time and most times be a 20/80.

if you want to short stack and push you buy in for like 20bbs. that strategy actually works but there is a ton of variance and its gay as hell.

i cant get called more that 3.5% of the time and be a 20/80 dog. the most i can get called is .2% of the time by AA and be am 88/12 dog, if AA and KK call me thats only .5% of the time and i'm a 77/23 dog. I'm destroying them with that calling standard, if he's only calling with AA i'm taking down 2498 dollars for every 196 dollars he takes from me, and if hes calling with AA or KK i'm taking 2487.50 dollars for every 385 he wins. If he's that bad i dont even need the post behind money i'll just take all of her money with just the blinds alone.

Originally Posted by givememyleg

Is there seriously a 30 post discussion in this thread talking about open pushing AK with 160 bbs????

no.

i was talking about pushing 77. but either way this thread is retarded.

Originally Posted by melinda27

Originally Posted by givememyleg

Is there seriously a 30 post discussion in this thread talking about open pushing AK with 160 bbs????

no.

then wtf are we talking about???

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by melinda27

Originally Posted by givememyleg

Is there seriously a 30 post discussion in this thread talking about open pushing AK with 160 bbs????

no.

then wtf are we talking about???

open pushing AK, dont know where the 160bbs came from. I was assuming regular 100 BB stacks. Thats probably where all this confusion is coming from.

ok let me change his statement then:

Is there seriously a 40 post discussion in this thread talking about open pushing AK with 100bbs????

yes


refer to qoute

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by melinda27

Thats probably where all this confusion is coming from.

probably not

Originally Posted by melinda27

open pushing AK, dont know where the 160bbs came from. I was assuming regular 100 BB stacks. Thats probably where all this confusion is coming from.

Originally Posted by melinda27

Pushing AK face up shows a profit. If the stacks are 166 BB or less. So how is pushing AK when they dont know what you have a mistake "a lot of times" ??

100 bbs, 160bbs, 345 bbs... it doesn't matter. Learn to play postflop instead of wasting your AK by treating ring like a MTT.

Originally Posted by givememyleg

Originally Posted by melinda27

open pushing AK, dont know where the 160bbs came from. I was assuming regular 100 BB stacks. Thats probably where all this confusion is coming from.

Originally Posted by melinda27

Pushing AK face up shows a profit. If the stacks are 166 BB or less. So how is pushing AK when they dont know what you have a mistake "a lot of times" ??

100 bbs, 160bbs, 345 bbs... it doesn't matter. Learn to play postflop instead of wasting your AK by treating ring like a MTT.

what are you talking about? This is a theory discussion. I've personally pushed AKo 3/1247 times in my current database and i have no problems with those hands and dont feel as though I wasted the hand.

Originally Posted by melinda27

Originally Posted by givememyleg

Originally Posted by melinda27

open pushing AK, dont know where the 160bbs came from. I was assuming regular 100 BB stacks. Thats probably where all this confusion is coming from.

Originally Posted by melinda27

Pushing AK face up shows a profit. If the stacks are 166 BB or less. So how is pushing AK when they dont know what you have a mistake "a lot of times" ??

100 bbs, 160bbs, 345 bbs... it doesn't matter. Learn to play postflop instead of wasting your AK by treating ring like a MTT.

what are you talking about? This is a theory discussion. I've personally pushed AKo 3/1247 times in my current database and i have no problems with those hands and dont feel as though I wasted the hand.

remember that one time when you said that open pushing AK with 166BB's or less is profitable? that's what we are talking about. also, we don't really care about the 3 times you did it. we are talking about theory...remember?

Originally Posted by melinda27

no way are these the only hands that call it by the way, i've been called by much worse aces, by suited kings, by suited QJ. I'm sure once i move out of the micro limits it will be different, but i only play 2/4 and they will call with a ton of junk.

that´s the average .02/.04 calling range.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by melinda27

Originally Posted by givememyleg

Originally Posted by melinda27

open pushing AK, dont know where the 160bbs came from. I was assuming regular 100 BB stacks. Thats probably where all this confusion is coming from.

Originally Posted by melinda27

Pushing AK face up shows a profit. If the stacks are 166 BB or less. So how is pushing AK when they dont know what you have a mistake "a lot of times" ??

100 bbs, 160bbs, 345 bbs... it doesn't matter. Learn to play postflop instead of wasting your AK by treating ring like a MTT.

what are you talking about? This is a theory discussion. I've personally pushed AKo 3/1247 times in my current database and i have no problems with those hands and dont feel as though I wasted the hand.

remember that one time when you said that open pushing AK with 166BB's or less is profitable? that's what we are talking about. also, we don't really care about the 3 times you did it. we are talking about theory...remember?

I didnt say pushing with 166BB stacks or less was profitable, the math did. He brought my playing tendencies into question and I told him what they were.

Originally Posted by XTR1000

Originally Posted by melinda27

no way are these the only hands that call it by the way, i've been called by much worse aces, by suited kings, by suited QJ. I'm sure once i move out of the micro limits it will be different, but i only play 2/4 and they will call with a ton of junk.

that´s the average .02/.04 calling range.

thanks for the info, i guess we know another limit where its also profitable. Now you have another move you can use when you find a good spot. Thankfully someone in this thread is paying attention.

Isn't the key point here that playing AK for a raise and then actually playing poker post-flop has a much higher expectation than open pushing?

[quote="melinda27"]

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by melinda27

hand #7 standard, you got all in with AK preflop which isnt a bad plan ever.

This is possibly the dumbest thing ive read for a week
You are wrong, do u c y?

(if you dont please sit at my table kthx)

This isnt even a discussion.

This entire thread is apples and oranges. You can in fact push AK in micro limits for a good profit. Isn't it obvious why? Once you get to a respectable limit however that all changes.

Originally Posted by Rondavu

This entire thread is apples and oranges. You can in fact push AK in micro limits for a good profit. Isn't it obvious why? Once you get to a respectable limit however that all changes.

As far as I could tell it was a theory question and the assumption was that worse hands fold.

Also 400NL isnt classed as microlimits these days.

Originally Posted by melinda27

Originally Posted by XTR1000

Originally Posted by melinda27

no way are these the only hands that call it by the way, i've been called by much worse aces, by suited kings, by suited QJ. I'm sure once i move out of the micro limits it will be different, but i only play 2/4 and they will call with a ton of junk.

that´s the average .02/.04 calling range.

thanks for the info, i guess we know another limit where its also profitable. Now you have another move you can use when you find a good spot. Thankfully someone in this thread is paying attention.

he wasn't helping you out. melinda, you really should ask yourself why all these decent poker players are saying the same thing. this is a pretty basic concept that you have to understand to be a winning player. stop being so stubborn about this. you said what you said. if you didn't mean to or were wrong in saying so then say so. this whole thing really shouldn't be an argument.

Two points.

1)
You have given the situation of pushing from SB against BB AND post behind limpers (checkers). You've correctly calculated the equity assuming top 3.5% calling range. BUT you've forgot about the limpers. They TOO might have checked something in the calling range and wake up to call. So assume one post in the Cut Off. Your chance of getting called is now 1 - 0.965^2 = 6.9% If you recalculate using these numbers, you'll get an unfavorable result.

2)
MOST IMPORTANTLY, if you have AK (one of the best hands in the game) in the SB AND everyone has folded to you AND there's dead blind money then I'm thinking: "OMG HOW CAN I WIN LOTS" not can I push and get a +1.19 +EV. Even if it IS EV, its surely not the MOST EV. And that is the point. Pushing KK on a rainbow K72 flop is +EV too, but is it the most +EV?

I will never open push AK with 100BB effective stacks. And I don't think I'm missing out on much

Originally Posted by Pelion

Originally Posted by Rondavu

This entire thread is apples and oranges. You can in fact push AK in micro limits for a good profit. Isn't it obvious why? Once you get to a respectable limit however that all changes.

As far as I could tell it was a theory question and the assumption was that worse hands fold.

Also 400NL isnt classed as microlimits these days.

I just don't like everyone jumping down a persons throat because no one can say "Pushing AK preflop doesn't work past 2cent/4cent", and here's why. Lately I see people getting enlightened via gang rape around here. That sucks.

Originally Posted by Rondavu

Originally Posted by Pelion

Originally Posted by Rondavu

This entire thread is apples and oranges. You can in fact push AK in micro limits for a good profit. Isn't it obvious why? Once you get to a respectable limit however that all changes.

As far as I could tell it was a theory question and the assumption was that worse hands fold.

Also 400NL isnt classed as microlimits these days.

I just don't like everyone jumping down a persons throat because no one can say "Pushing AK preflop doesn't work past 2cent/4cent", and here's why. Lately I see people getting enlightened via gang rape around here. That sucks.

I don't think anything in this thread is really uncalled for. I think melinda is just being stubborn and is looking for a big argument. She's saying stuff like she's not really afraid of KK if she has AK in late position b/c that makes more Aces live for some reason. It's a pretty riciculous thread.

Originally Posted by salsa4ever

Two points.
2.)
MOST IMPORTANTLY, if you have AK (one of the best hands in the game) in the SB AND everyone has folded to you AND there's dead blind money then I'm thinking: "OMG HOW CAN I WIN LOTS" not can I push and get a +1.19 +EV. Even if it IS EV, its surely not the MOST EV. And that is the point. Pushing KK on a rainbow K72 flop is +EV too, but is it the most +EV?

We have a winner.

Originally Posted by salsa4ever

2)
MOST IMPORTANTLY, if you have AK (one of the best hands in the game) in the SB AND everyone has folded to you AND there's dead blind money then I'm thinking: "OMG HOW CAN I WIN LOTS" not can I push and get a +1.19 +EV. Even if it IS EV, its surely not the MOST EV. And that is the point. Pushing KK on a rainbow K72 flop is +EV too, but is it the most +EV?

I will never open push AK with 100BB effective stacks. And I don't think I'm missing out on much

I totally agree with this, all i said was it was +ev, i never said it was the right play. I never would say its the right play. Its a dumb play but it is +EV. That was all the argument was.