Call or raise turn with top/top vs tighty...

Villain is 14/7/1.8 over 200ish hands. Bit of a weak-tight player, his flop continuation bet is 55%. When he 2 barrelled here I'm not sure if he did because he may have noticed me flatting flop bets often in position or if he just has a hand - I'm thinking probably closer to the latter...but wtf does he have here? If he's been paying attention I have a super-tight image.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($17.30)
UTG+1 ($10)
MP1 ($9.95)
MP2 ($13.80)
MP3 ($9)
Hero (CO) ($10.95)
Button ($7)
SB ($7.10)
BB ($9.10)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, A
3 folds, MP2 bets $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.30, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.75) 3, Q, K (2 players)
MP2 bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60

Turn: ($1.95) 7 (2 players)
MP2 bets $1.60, [color=#CC3333]Hero calls? raises?

Alright I was sort of stumped as to what the optimal play is here. I considered just flat calling, but also raising (probably just a click back (min-raise)). I think the reason I was a bit confused was because I don't know wtf he's 2-barrelling with. Probably just call down 3 streets with this one? I thought I might be able to rep big (Set or KQ) though if I min-raise just because I've been playing so tight and I figure he would see this play as strength. I don't think he's seen me raise postlfop period. I don't know how narrow his 2-barrelling range is though so I'm not sure if he's only folding like 2 hands or 10 hands here if I raise, and if I flat call and he 3-barrells river, will calling with top/top be profitable?

I might throw out a small raise on the flop to gauge where I'm at. If he calls, we'll probably be splitting with another AK, and if he raises he's got to be holding QQ, KK or AA and you can try and get away from the hand.

Originally Posted by Taicho

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Just call. Especially if you think he is barreling alot of turns, as you alluded to. What hands do you think is calling a raise here that you beat?

And if he fires the river without many reads, you are likely beat. Assess pot odds, etc to determine a call, but folding might be the correct play.

I would just call him down. If i minraise him and he calls then the pot is 9 bucks. he shoves his 4.50 into the 9 dollar pot what are you gonna do fold? i doubt it. He wont shove on the riv if you just smooth call him the whole way down.

yeah good points, what range of hands do you guys think he would 2-barrell here with given the info we have so far? This is actually what kind of stumped me since he 3-bet% was only 55% so far.

Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

Originally Posted by Taicho

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Just call. Especially if you think he is barreling alot of turns, as you alluded to. What hands do you think is calling a raise here that you beat?

And if he fires the river without many reads, you are likely beat. Assess pot odds, etc to determine a call, but folding might be the correct play.

Hm, that's probably better. I suppose my thought was you'd be able to tell right away whether or not you were beat if you raised him on the flop, but that's going to chase hands you can beat out of the pot and such.

This is why I post, so I can give bad advice and get corrected and learn something too!

Originally Posted by Taicho

Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

Originally Posted by Taicho

..

Just call. Especially if you think he is barreling alot of turns, as you alluded to. What hands do you think is calling a raise here that you beat?

And if he fires the river without many reads, you are likely beat. Assess pot odds, etc to determine a call, but folding might be the correct play.

Hm, that's probably better. I suppose my thought was you'd be able to tell right away whether or not you were beat if you raised him on the flop, but that's going to chase hands you can beat out of the pot and such.

This is why I post, so I can give bad advice and get corrected and learn something too!

exactly.

If we are ahead of his range right now then calling is +ev. If we aren't ahead of the range he continues with when we raise, then raising is -ev. So take the +ev play.

Definitely just call.

c-bet % is low, he probably has a hand here. Look him up.

If I'm raising at any point so far, it's on the flop.

I think you know what he already has it's not too hard to deduce but like everyone else said, you might take a bad beat or just split the pot but he seems the type from your description to tell you what hand he has. On the river if he bets big you're probably beat.

is flatting AK in position standard in todays FR games?

Originally Posted by XTR1000

is flatting AK in position standard in todays FR games?

maybe not in this situation, however, if he's opening UTG/UTG+1 it's certainly a decent option.

I flatted mostly because villains were tight enough behind that I wouldn't expect calls too often, and this guy isn't really positionally aware so he's probably raising a similar range as he would in early position. Should I always be 3-betting here?

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

I flatted mostly because villains were tight enough behind that I wouldn't expect calls too often, and this guy isn't really positionally aware so he's probably raising a similar range as he would in early position. Should I always be 3-betting here?

it's not like he's in LP by any means, he's still in fairly early or middle position. My range doesn't even open up all that much until I get to the HJ and even then it stays tighter if the CO/BTN are loose.

Thinking about hands is good.

Why would you want to "rep big" when you have topest pair, topest kicker? That will only fold hands you want to keep playing with. And be careful trying to "rep" something vs unthinking micro stakes nits. He's playing his hand only, so worrying about his perceived range of you is going to cause you to trick yourself.

ya good point swiggidy.

what stakes do you start to notice these type of nits becoming more thinking-players? like around .50/1 or 1/2 maybe?

Raise preflop. If he calls, the only hands you have beat is TT and JJ, and of course splitting with another AK. AA, KK, QQ and AQs has you beat. Nits don't raise many other hands and would definately not call a reraise with anything else. And they rarely if ever two barrel with air.
It is very easy to fold against a nit if you have stats on him.

If you don't want to raise preflop then do it on the flop. If the nit has AK too he might want to get a cheap showdown and check it through due to your raise. If he has TT or JJ he will fold, he might even fold AK as well if he is a supernit with constant set paranoia. If he calls and bets the turn, fold. If he comes over the top, fold.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

what stakes do you start to notice these type of nits becoming more thinking-players? like around .50/1 or 1/2 maybe?

Nits by default are not thinking players.

You don't have to try very hard to out-think the players you'll make money from. Vs a 14/7 I'm just not going to play pots with them because they're too nitty.

top/top

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBABP1pUB18