Call?

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.25 BB (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+1 ($16)
UTG+2 ($10.20)
Hero ($31.80)
MP2 ($24.75)
MP3 ($45.30)
CO ($24.30)
Button ($17.10)
SB ($22.90)
BB ($11.15)
UTG ($5)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 2, 2.
1 fold, UTG+2 calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, 1 fold, MP3 calls $0.25, _Da calls $0.25, Button calls $0.25, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.75) 2, T, 8 (8 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $1, MP3 calls $1, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+2 folds.

Turn: ($3.75) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $3.5, MP3 raises to $7, Hero calls $3.50.

River: ($17.75) T (2 players)
Hero bets $5, MP3 goes all-in for $37.05, Hero goes all-in for $23.55.

Final Pot: $64.60.

Results in white below:
Hero has 2d 2h (full house, twos full of tens).
MP3 has Ts Qs (full house, tens full of queens).
Outcome: MP3 wins $61.60 .

Read on the villan was tight agressive.

I really failed to put him on QT, I thought he was on AT and got smashed because of it. I thought his raise on the river was an attempt to push with TPTK. The amount of the raise on river gave me pause, but I thought he was on trips without a pair, so it seemed like an over-bet.

Given the size of the raise, and the amount I had in the pot, is it best to fold in this situation all the time, regardless of my read?

Or should the raise on the turn and then river indicate he has 2pair -> boat.

Unless he has an overset, his most likely holdings on the turn are 9J or TQ.

Why would he minraise the turn with AT?

I don't think the call was bad here on the river because he easily could have 9J.

I guess my question to the NL guys is whether or not a push on the turn is the best play (which is what I would do in a tourney) since you are usually ahead - and even if the guy has the straight you do have a ton of outs to boat.

Usually I would say at this level, your boat is good often enough to call. The problem in this hand is you can only put villain on 1 hand you have beat that would act the way villain did in this hand. That hand is J9. KK and AA are unlikely by way of an unraised pot before the flop.

I think it's extra hard to get away from any boat at 25NL. There are just so many people overplaying hands. That being said, I may have folded to the river push here, only because the board presents a very tight range of confidence pointing towards higher boat more often than a poorly played J9.

If you were thinking things through entirely, you may have realized J9 was your only dog, and J9 raises you less often on a river paired board when you lead out.

Some comments:

FLOP
Here I might slowplay it, or bet as you did. Really depends. There's a fair chance someone will raise behind me with 8 people in the pot, so that's an option too. Not saying betting was a mistake, but just giving you an idea. I will typically take this line if the table plays aggro on weakness but passive to raises. But what you did, what 3 checks before you, is probably "generally" best.

TURN
Here I have to disagree with your call. He reraises you. You have a set. You can't be scared of an overset (anyone on 88, TT or QQ would have probably raised preflop anyway right?), so the only thing that *might* beat you here is a straight. However, realistically, it's probably TP or two pair. And he reraises.. he likes his hand. So 3-bet him! This is perfect. Someone showing they like their hand when you have an undetectable monster. So after his reraise the pot is around $14, so slam atleast another $13 on the table.

RIVER
Hm, not easy. The hands I would expect to play like this are AT, KT, QT, J9 and maybe even JT and 97. Only QT has you beat.. so yeah, call. You lucked out. Boat over boat, that sucks.

EDIT:
(a little clarification maybe of why I added AT, KT, JT and 97 to his range.. because at this limit I have noticed people like to play strong on draws too sometimes, and, depending on your read, could take a reraise-line with these on the turn.. I've seen it before.. although if your read tells you he is more sensible than that, you can scratch those off your list and you're in a pinch as to what to do)

This doesnt really affect the outcome of the hand, but why was your river bet so small?

Back to the turn though, I agree with the most possible holdings that chardrian mentioned, the minraise doesnt make sense for AT. Its possible he could have QQ+, but you most likely would have seen a raise preflop with those hands, so I dont think they are too likely. I dont know if I would push that turn simply because there is a good chance he has J9 and is ahead here, , this could be a weakness in my game though. On that river I think you have to get all your money in, Id still probably lead a little stronger there though.

If this guy is a straight forward player, the hands that make sense to me are TT, 88, J9, QT, T8. Other possibilities for an aggressive postflop player are AT, KT. If we take the first range, you only beat J9. There is 1 possibility for TT, 3 ways for 88, 6 ways each for QT and T8, and 16 ways to have J9. This makes 16 ways you are beat and 16 you are ahead, so without a read such as 'this guy never goes all-in on a paired board withouta boat', I think you can make the call. If he won't go all-in without a near nut hand, then you can probably fold. Of course you should expect to lose this at least half the time.

Originally Posted by jackvance

Some comments:


TURN
Here I have to disagree with your call. He reraises you. You have a set. You can't be scared of an overset (anyone on 88, TT or QQ would have probably raised preflop anyway right?), so the only thing that *might* beat you here is a straight. However, realistically, it's probably TP or two pair. And he reraises.. he likes his hand. So 3-bet him! This is perfect. Someone showing they like their hand when you have an undetectable monster. So after his reraise the pot is around $14, so slam atleast another $13 on the table.

I agree with Jack here. I would have made that river card as expensive as possible. When the Q hit on the turn and he reraised, I personally would have but him on 2 pair, either Q T or Q 8. If he was playing tight, my experience says he might have folded to a good sized comebacker before the river card. Just my thoughts of course.

Thanks for all the feedback guys, much appreciated

His V$IP was 17%, so after the flop I actually discounted J9 QT completely (fatal mistake).

2nd fatal mistake, I didn’t bet more on the turn purely out of greed. I was looking to take his stack. I thought a larger bet, or a re-raise would see him fold. I should have re-raised him and tried to take the pot there. 88 or TT worried me slightly, but I must confess that it was greed that made me just call his raise.

Bet on the river was small again, hoping for another raise. Is this the incorrect play to make?

Originally Posted by D

2nd fatal mistake, I didn’t bet more on the turn purely out of greed.

Trust me, I've done this too.. and learned my lesson because of these kinds of situations happening too often in that case

Bet on the river was small again, hoping for another raise. Is this the incorrect play to make?

You *could* do this with the nuts, if you are SURE your opponent has a good but weaker hand. Like a straight to your flush or underflush to your nutflush, etc.. AND your read has to tell you he is in fact inclined to push in that scenario. So generally, bet harder here.

These sorts of bets you made are generally made as 'blocking bets'.. lesser hands will call/fold and better hands will raise. As was the case here in fact, except you did it for the wrong reasons so you called the raise.

I often find myself making these sorts of blocking bets when we get to the river and I have a good hand but I suspect my opp to possibly have me beat. If I check the river, this shows too much weakness, and he might bluff-raise me just to get me to fold, so that would suck.

But using them to incite a WEAKER hand to raise you, really is rare..