Calculation check?

So I've gotten into a few large pots with one player in particular. I'm not seeking him out, but we've ended up at the same table in two different sessions now. They are large pots on purpose because I'm sure I've got the better hand when the money goes in and I grossly overbet knowing he'll keep calling.

I have 196 hands on him. He's 86/29/2. He sees just about every flop no matter the raise. He'll call down with any piece of the board.

Hand 1- $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
CO ($7.53)
BTN ($4.94)
SB ($2.98)
Hero ($5.80)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03, 4 players) Hero is BB
CO raises to $0.04, BTN calls $0.04, SB calls $0.03, Hero raises to $0.30, CO goes all-in $7.53, BTN folds, SB folds, Hero goes all-in $5.50

Flop: ($13.41, 2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: ($13.41, 2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($13.41, 2 players, 2 all-in)

Villain loves to min-raise. He has yet to fold to one of my re-raises no matter the size (though I haven't shoved fully against him yet). Only two hands are ahead of me at this point. At the time, I hadn't done the math, I just figured given his stats, I'm ahead here way more than behind and I call.

I'm just starting with the calculations and trying to figure out when calls are profitable or not. I don't fully understand it all. But I ran this hand in Pokerstove.

Pokerstove's output is as follows:
equity / win / tie
Hand 0: 69.660% / 68.80% / 00.86% / { QdQh }
Hand 1: 30.340% / 29.48% / 00.86% / { TT+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, 98s, 87s, 76s, KJo+, QJo, JTo }

I've added the small connectors to his opening range because I've seen him show up with them in past hands with me and others.

So I have 69% equity in the hand. I need to be getting better than 50% for this to be +EV if my calculations are right -- 5.50/(5.50+5.50) = .5 (just showing the math for verification)

Given the range I've put him on this looks like a +EV call. Any issues with my calculations or even my range?

I was going to post three hands in particular, but this got longer than expected. I think it's best to stick to one hand/thread. Anyway, as I said, I'm just now getting to where I'm plugging in numbers into Pokerstove and trying to understand the concepts of equity/pot odds and +/-EV moves. I'm somewhat math retarded so I've got a definite lack of confidence that I'm getting this.

Thanks.

You have the 3rd (or some may argue 4th) best hand in poker PF vs. 86/29/2 villain, this is clearly WAY EV+++.

For this villain at 2NL, do think your range is too tight on pocket pairs (44+) and you are missing the Ace-x hands (A10o+, A4s+).

Appreciate the ranging exercise, but in this specific case it's mostly academic because the chips can't possibly go in the middle fast enough against this guy!

as for the hand, OMGWTFGETTHEMONEYINASFASTASYOUCANANDSAYMUAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHA

as for the thought process, you don't even need 50% equity for this to be +EV because there's already a good bit of money in the pot. that being said, it's 275bb's deep so your 15bb that you already committed isn't a huge factor.

also, OP's and cougar's ranges are like way more optomistic than i'd like here. ok MAYBE he shows up withn 87s, but do we really expect him to show up with this hand with the exact frequency that he shows up with AA here, as your range suggests? there's a huge difference between min raising and calling your 3b with anything and min-raising then 4b massively overshoving. i mean the guy obv likes his hand.

I'd say something more like KQ, ATs+, AJ+, TT+ is a lot lot lot more realistic. that said, we still waffle crush his range

When you must calculate the equity you need to call, use this;

Equity needed = The amount you must call / (The amount you must call + The money in the pot)

In this case the money in the pot is 6,18 (The effective stack is 5,80) and the amount you must call is 5.50

Equity needed = 5.50 / (5.50 + 6.18) = 5.50 / 11.68 = ~47%

In this situation this makes no important difference, i wrote it because you asked for math verification...

It's an obviously standard call against this villain, even given the grossly overbet 4bet shove on his part.

For the math, follow Belt's equation:

Equity needed = (Amount to call) / (Amount to call + pot)

So if the pot is $10, and villain shoves the river for $5. The pot is now $15, and you must call $5, so you are getting 3:1 pot odds. Using the equation, you need:

Equity needed = (5) / (15 + 5) = 5 / 20 = 0.25 = 25%,

Which is the same as if you did it via pot odds and got 3:1, which putting that in % is 1/4 or 25%.

Now as far as your range... You say you have 69% equity, and you very well might have. But you say you've added small suited connectors to his range because you have seen him open with them before. Do you see the flaw in this logic? You shouldn't be factoring your equity against his opening range, but against the range that he 4bet shoves. Just because he opens small suited connectors doesn't necessarily mean he 4bet shoves them over a large 3bet. If you are factoring your equity against his opening range, then you are assuming he always 4bet shoves 100% of the hands he opens here, and that's obviously not the case, as he hasn't done this before. So, you need to factor QQ's equity against the range of hands he might 4bet shove.

And, instead of sitting down figuring he will 4bet shove 44-AA, AT+, KQ+, etc (not saying that range is correct, just an example), all you really need to do is see what hands he needs to have, and if it's a call against that range. If it is, then against a wider range, you are going to have more equity. I put in a range of {JJ+, AK}, and against that range, you have the needed equity to make a call. Now we know it's incredibly obvious that this particular villain has a wider range than that, so the call only becomes more +EV as the range gets wider. So the call is obviously +EV.

Thanks guys, this one helped me a bit... even though I knew most of it, my brain has been muddled lately and this is helping me clear it...

Is there a Mac equivalent to poker stove?

Also for the 86/29/2, that's VPiP/PFR/?? What's the 2? AF?

Stacks, you're totally right. I meant to take those shitty SCs out of the mix in the final. Definitely in his opening range. Probably not in his push. Although, I have checked out some of his past hands and seen him push with absolutely hideous hands in this scenario. So I'd take the SCs out, but I would leave in any broadway combo.

This hand ends with him having Ks and they hold up. Shit happens. I'd make the same call all day against him, that's for sure.

Thanks for the replies guys.

Is there a Mac equivalent to poker stove?

-Ask google.

Also for the 86/29/2, that's VPiP/PFR/?? What's the 2? AF?

-yup

Originally Posted by Gafferland

Is there a Mac equivalent to poker stove?

http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...tionEditor.jsp[/url]