I think your points are good. I may well be overestimating villain's 3bet range, but I've also not included him calling the 2006-stylee 4bet shove with AQ, AJ, ATs, 88, which I've been all in pre before against Russians BvB with stronger holdings than 99.

I think the rake makes my calculation just above even (only affects part (c)). I think I get the real value from potentially tilting villain and creating the kind of volatile dynamic I like to operate in for future profits.