Bottom set on turn, oop, w/ big overcards & draws on board, and lots of betting

[Tasha]

Flop bet size is fine although I'd bet closer or a tad over half pot. Axx is a pretty polarizing board.

With less money behind I'd ship the turn without a second thought.

As played, I'm more inclines to call and lead most river cards.

If Villain doesn't already have a set then the biggest threat is making a flush which is 5.11:1 against.
A raise to just over $0.90 would deny him pot odds to call (I think).
So why just call? Would it not be better to put in that raise?

[NightGizmo]

If Villain doesn't already have a set then the biggest threat is making a flush which is 5.11:1 against.
A raise to just over $0.90 would deny him pot odds to call (I think).
So why just call? Would it not be better to put in that raise?

Correction -- if you have 9 outs on the turn, your odds are 4.11:1 against. And you also have to consider that not all of those outs are good ones. If the 6s falls and completes his flush, he's still behind to a boat.

A $.90 raise is too small. The pot would be 3.07 and he would only have to call .90 with over 3.00 behind. He almost has the pot odds to call, and unless you plan on folding to even a small bet if the flush hits, he has the implied odds to continue.

If you think you are way ahead of his calling range here, you should make closer to a pot-sized raise. If you raise it to 3.00, he has to call 2.20 in a pot of 4.40 with only 2.00 behind. That is how you deny him the right odds.

If you don't think he will call that high of a raise with his draws, you can lower it a bit since 3.00 gives him less than 3:1 and he needs at least 4.75:1 (maybe even 5.5:1). For example, a raise to 2.40 only gives him implied odds of 4.0:1, making it a mistake for him to call with just a flush draw.

[Tasha]

Correction -- if you have 9 outs on the turn, your odds are 4.11:1 against. And you also have to consider that not all of those outs are good ones. If the 6s falls and completes his flush, he's still behind to a boat.

And the 3c would give Hero four of a kind. I think that is how I came up with 5.11:1 in the first place.

For example, a raise to 2.40 only gives him implied odds of 4.0:1, making it a mistake for him to call with just a flush draw.

Thanks, that is what I wanted to know. But how did you get to 2.40 for the implied odds?

[NightGizmo]

And the 3c would give Hero four of a kind. I think that is how I came up with 5.11:1 in the first place.

Just to make sure our maths are the same:

If he's chasing the spade draw, he has 7-9 outs (depending on whether he has the As or 6s). Similarly, for the club draw, he has 7-9 outs (depending on whether he has the 3c or Kc).

Assuming he can't see your cards (he only knows about his two and the four on the board):
7 outs = 7:39 = 5.57:1
8 outs = 8:38 = 4.75:1
9 outs = 9:37 = 4.11:1

Thanks, that is what I wanted to know. But how did you get to 2.40 for the implied odds?

Assuming both stacks will go in if he hits his flush, implied odds is simply the amount he has to call in relation to the pot + money behind.

He has to call 1.60, the pot is 3.87, there is about 2.60 behind, so (3.87+2.60):1.60 = 4:1

[Tasha]

He has to call 1.60, the pot is 3.87, there is about 2.60 behind, so (3.87+2.60):1.60 = 4:1

Thanks again, I see where I went wrong in getting 5.11 instead of 4.11. I was working on the scenario that gives Villain the best odds but still made an error.
I think I get it now, except that there is still the respectable opinion that Hero should only call Villains $0.80 raise and not reraise at all. Why is that better than making any kind of raise?

[Imthenewfish]

Thanks again, I see where I went wrong in getting 5.11 instead of 4.11. I was working on the scenario that gives Villain the best odds but still made an error.
I think I get it now, except that there is still the respectable opinion that Hero should only call Villains $0.80 raise and not reraise at all. Why is that better than making any kind of raise?

there is no respectable opinion of calling here..? it's 5nl rush poker lol..

[rowhousepd]

Assuming both stacks will go in if he hits his flush, implied odds is simply the amount he has to call in relation to the pot + money behind.

He has to call 1.60, the pot is 3.87, there is about 2.60 behind, so (3.87+2.60):1.60 = 4:1

p.s. Just have to admit here that although I get how these work, and although it's clear (well somewhat clear) in the postmortem, my pea brain is definitely not able to do this in my head w/ the clock ticking. Uuug. Maybe some day....

[Monsieur_chat]

Nh, wp. AK is probably what I'd put him on and you pwned him. Remember, villain luckboxing his boat changes absolutely nothing and I hope it's not the real reason you posted the hand....