Bottom set on mono flop facing river shove

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

you are good here somewhere between 0 and 0%

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say bollocks. OP's read states that villain shoved a low full house on a double-pair board. That for me is a dumb move, a classic example of "worse hands fold, better hands call". Coupled with this guys apparant disregard for position, and I think we have a fish capable of shoving air in a spot where he thinks villain might have called down Aclubs, which might fold to a shove. Or maybe villain has AK with Aclubs himself, that's TPTK in the hands of a mentalist who thinks low full house is the nuts.

Honestly, I snap this and expect villain to turn over some crap like AJ w/club more often than he turns over a flush or a set of aces or whatever.

ok fine. between 0-10% we are good here.

as far as 4bet shoving the non nut boat on the river in some other hand that wasn't even explained at all (what was board, positions, stack sizes, villain etc???? not to mention a low full house usually is the nuts anyway) that doesn't really tell you much about how he's going to play this spot aside from he probably jams all flushes here and probably all sets that are in his range.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

ok fine. between 0-10% we are good here.

as far as 4bet shoving the non nut boat on the river....doesn't really tell you much about how he's going to play this spot aside from he probably jams all flushes here and probably all sets that are in his range.

My read on the boat shove was that he will shove the river with a perceived nut hand. I had not seen him bluff his missed draws. I generally give villain credit unless he gives me a reason not to. Only thing on this board that looks close to the nuts is a straight/flush/set, of which i only beat 22. I tanked just long enough to curse him and folded.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

ok fine. between 0-10% we are good here.

as far as 4bet shoving the non nut boat on the river in some other hand that wasn't even explained at all (what was board, positions, stack sizes, villain etc???? not to mention a low full house usually is the nuts anyway) that doesn't really tell you much about how he's going to play this spot aside from he probably jams all flushes here and probably all sets that are in his range.

I estimate we need to win this something like 35% of the time to break even. I figured it was close based on his previous plays. But of course, you are definitely right when it comes to this boat hand, we don't know the full details of it to make a read quite like OP can.

I guess I call this because UTG can have AJ with club very easily, possibly even without the club. Top 2pair is pretty nutty looking to a fish. And maybe he can even do this with AK if he has a club. Will I get the required 35% to break even? I really don't know, I guess since he has so many suited hands in his range we probably won't.

I'm just not at all impressed with him shoving a hand that can be beaten so easily. It leads me to believe he can do it here.