Bottom set on mono flop facing river shove

Played this hand late last night. Villain is 19/8 (681), AFq 57, AF 2.5. I had only seen him shove once and that was on a river that double paired the board and he 4bet shoved with the worse boat.
Looking at his stats this morning, he is positionally oblivious so his UTG+1 range is pretty wide (33/18). Pre flop 32s+, A2s+,KTs+, 22+, AJo+.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($5)
Button ($4.85)
SB ($5.58)
BB ($6.16)
UTG ($5)
UTG+1 ($7.37)
MP1 ($1.68)
Hero (MP2) ($6.48)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8, 8
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $0.15, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.15, 4 folds

Flop: ($0.37) J, 8, 9 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.35, Hero calls $0.35

Pretty standard Cbet. He is CBet here with all his XcXx over pairs, XcYx broadways, draws and made straights and flushes. Raise?

Turn: ($1.07) 2 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.60, Hero raises to $1.80, UTG+1 calls $1.20

Turn bet was weird. Its either an admission of defeat or a donk, an attempt to get me to come over the top?
This is where i start to get lost. Honestly, my logic last night was that he will still call and chase with his flop range.

River: ($4.67) A (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $5.07 (All-In) Hero ???

OK now i'm pretty sure i'm beat. Does he chase his flush here with AcYx, hit TP on the river and turn it into a bluff?

Shoving River Range:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.000% 70.00% 00.00% 21 0.00 { AA, JJ, 99-88, AcKc, AcQc, AcTc, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, JcTc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs }
Hand 1: 30.000% 30.00% 00.00% 9 0.00 { 8d8h }

A call requires 32% (4.18/13.03), so it is marginal if we think he will bluff the river with his Ac.

- raise the super-wet flop, he continues with draws, top pair, overpairs
- turn could just be a second barrel with his draws or vbet with his made hands. Raise is good, I'd raise a little more to get it in easier on the river
- call river, you're not always good but sufficiently to call imo

How is his UTG+1 range that much larger than his overall stats? I doubt he's raising A2-A9 very often.

On wet flop, I think you need to try and get it in on the flop. a 4th club would kill the action. Reraise to $1.20 or so.

meh, I dont fold sets on monoflops hardly ever...
If he raised with AA or AQ-AKcc then I guess we pay him off. I dont fold my set here

you are good here somewhere between 0 and 0%

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

you are good here somewhere between 0 and 0%

lolol QFT

you are good here somewhere between 0 and 0%

I am interested to know why AcX does not make sense?

AcX is not shoving as played.

That preflop range you gave him is WAY too wide.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

you are good here somewhere between 0 and 0%

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say bollocks. OP's read states that villain shoved a low full house on a double-pair board. That for me is a dumb move, a classic example of "worse hands fold, better hands call". Coupled with this guys apparant disregard for position, and I think we have a fish capable of shoving air in a spot where he thinks villain might have called down Aclubs, which might fold to a shove. Or maybe villain has AK with Aclubs himself, that's TPTK in the hands of a mentalist who thinks low full house is the nuts.

Honestly, I snap this and expect villain to turn over some crap like AJ w/club more often than he turns over a flush or a set of aces or whatever.

Originally Posted by kmind

AcX is not shoving as played.

That preflop range you gave him is WAY too wide.

32s and 67o are in his known starting hands from UTG+1.

I admit AcX did not seem reasonable at the time. It was only after, while writing the post and going through his positional stats that i thought it a possibility, albeit unlikely. Looking at the range i gave him the AcX theory has to be valid to find a call here imo.
Villain is 6/4 from the button. His VPIP/PFR stats are totally inverted relative to position. Go figure.

ok fine. between 0-10% we are good here.

as far as 4bet shoving the non nut boat on the river in some other hand that wasn't even explained at all (what was board, positions, stack sizes, villain etc???? not to mention a low full house usually is the nuts anyway) that doesn't really tell you much about how he's going to play this spot aside from he probably jams all flushes here and probably all sets that are in his range.

Originally Posted by Openside

32s and 67o are in his known starting hands from UTG+1.

I admit AcX did not seem reasonable at the time. It was only after, while writing the post and going through his positional stats that i thought it a possibility, albeit unlikely. Looking at the range i gave him the AcX theory has to be valid to find a call here imo.
Villain is 6/4 from the button. His VPIP/PFR stats are totally inverted relative to position. Go figure.

I stand corrected. Wow. My bad.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

ok fine. between 0-10% we are good here.

as far as 4bet shoving the non nut boat on the river....doesn't really tell you much about how he's going to play this spot aside from he probably jams all flushes here and probably all sets that are in his range.

My read on the boat shove was that he will shove the river with a perceived nut hand. I had not seen him bluff his missed draws. I generally give villain credit unless he gives me a reason not to. Only thing on this board that looks close to the nuts is a straight/flush/set, of which i only beat 22. I tanked just long enough to curse him and folded.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

ok fine. between 0-10% we are good here.

as far as 4bet shoving the non nut boat on the river in some other hand that wasn't even explained at all (what was board, positions, stack sizes, villain etc???? not to mention a low full house usually is the nuts anyway) that doesn't really tell you much about how he's going to play this spot aside from he probably jams all flushes here and probably all sets that are in his range.

I estimate we need to win this something like 35% of the time to break even. I figured it was close based on his previous plays. But of course, you are definitely right when it comes to this boat hand, we don't know the full details of it to make a read quite like OP can.

I guess I call this because UTG can have AJ with club very easily, possibly even without the club. Top 2pair is pretty nutty looking to a fish. And maybe he can even do this with AK if he has a club. Will I get the required 35% to break even? I really don't know, I guess since he has so many suited hands in his range we probably won't.

I'm just not at all impressed with him shoving a hand that can be beaten so easily. It leads me to believe he can do it here.

timing is really important here.

also whether or not he barrels XcXx hands or AK/AQ/top pair/overpairs is important as well.