Quote Originally Posted by couriermike View Post
DanAronG gives villain a range of 44, 77, JJ+, which, if he ever does this with overpairs, is pretty reasonable. Against that range, bottom set is 75% and AA is 74%.

Philly gives villain a range of 44, 77, KK+. Against that range bottom set is 61%, 55% if you throw in 65s. Maybe he raises 65s, maybe not. Against the same two ranges with AA, we're 55% and 42%.

Treating his turn c/r like a shove, we're getting pot odds of 38%. So we should call with AA.

Are you ever calling with AA here? Because that's basically what our hand is.

I don't see how you guys can say this is usually an overpair. I have never seen an AF 1 guy play their overpairs this way. Usually they just call down. It's weird that you guys don't see this as a big hand almost always.

edit:
I mean, if he can't have two pair hands, which he really shouldn't, then getting it in with 222 is basically the same as AA, and who jams or calls AA here, right?
I'd call with AA, purely because of such a low flop, I only really expect to see 77 or JJ+ with this villain, and there's a lot more JJ+s out there than 77s. I don't see 65 here, and I'm not putting him solely on 77 or the more unlikely 44.