bottom set deep vs aggro turn heat 25nl

villain is 35-20-5 over 50, one significant hand when i raised turn with my turned nut straight (89s) and he called his overpair on the paired board, then i checked back double paired board river to win at showdown with about 55bb behind. How does JJ-AA/KJ/AK/QTs sound here? too optimistic?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($49.65)
SB ($26.47)
BB ($47.73)
UTG ($24.75)
Hero (MP1) ($43.14)
MP2 ($54.26)
CO ($60.10)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 7, 7
UTG bets $0.85, Hero calls $0.85, 4 folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($2.65) J, K, 7 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $1.75, Hero raises to $5, BB calls $5, 1 fold

Turn: ($14.40) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $9, BB raises to $41.88 (All-In),

I don't think QQ is in his range after he shoves turn and I think he'd prob 3bet KK/AA (doesn't mean he can't have them though). Other than that I think the range you gave him is prob good although I might add some other random shit (like random TP's or like the occasional K7s or just some stupid bluff)

There's only 6 combos of hands that beat us here so not sure if you're thinking about folding but I'm not.

JJ is the only made hand that really makes sense for him although the turn shove is weird. since he's aggro, it looks like a draw that picked up outs, QTdd or AQdd. i think you're good more than a third of the time for sure, call.

Even though we're deep I can't see why we'd ever fold this. KK is discounted due to pre flop and the only hand in his range that beats you is JJ. KJ is still in his range given his stats, add in some QT/AK combo's and this is an easy call.

Way more combos of AK, KQ, KJ, QT than KK or JJ. He could also have Aces, obv. And random villains make this shove with all these hands, except for maybe QT. But that doesn't mean it's not possible. Your range is not too optimistic at all imo, and this has to be a call vs this range. Against aggro villains, I've made hero calls in this spot and I'm usually surprised to see totally WTF hands like TT or K9 or some retard that called the flop raise with deuces.

If villain is playing 35/20 then unless im underrating the quality of games then with the read he didnt fold an overpair to a turn raise he clearly overvalues hands - i also doubt at these stakes anyone is going to c/shove with lots of equity (some sort of combo draw) so i see his range as made of TPTK+

The worst he turns up with is AK IMO so a range of sets/top two/AA/AK we have a price to call if my math is right.
Even if we limit him to a really nitty KJ/JJ/KK/AA the price isnt awful - its just difficult to put him to just KK/JJ or the super nitty range when he plays so loose at microstakes.

Your read suggests the call is trivial but against an unknown id call but only be ok with it - not a 'set - fistpump!' call

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

The worst he turns up with is AK IMO so a range of sets/top two/AA/AK we have a price to call if my math is right.
Even if we limit him to a really nitty KJ/JJ/KK/AA the price isnt awful - its just difficult to put him to just KK/JJ or the super nitty range when he plays so loose at microstakes.

Your read suggests the call is trivial but against an unknown id call but only be ok with it - not a 'set - fistpump!' call

KK,JJ is the only combo we lost to,loads of random 2pr does this.He probably could have QdTd here sometimes.I would call but yeah,i'll be worried with our stack size that we have to call.Either way,I'm never folding vs 35/20.

It's close but I wouldn't fold

Maybe I am fish. But based on stats he may even have AQdd here. I call.

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

i also doubt at these stakes anyone is going to c/shove with lots of equity (some sort of combo draw) so i see his range as made of TPTK+

The worst he turns up with is AK IMO so a range of sets/top two/AA/AK we have a price to call if my math is right.

i think this is spot on
villain showed AK and i allowed myself a smile

what is the percentage of times that we are facing an overset ? A little more than 1 % of the times we get a set. I would never fold a set in this spot, not even he shows me his KK/JJ. I don't remember the name, but a pro player said that it's foolish to fold a set for fear that the other player has an overset.

Originally Posted by lautaaaaaa

what is the percentage of times that we are facing an overset ? A little more than 1 % of the times we get a set. I would never fold a set in this spot, not even he shows me his KK/JJ. I don't remember the name, but a pro player said that it's foolish to fold a set for fear that the other player has an overset.

it's foolish to blindly follow generic rules in poker

It's not a rule, it's a statistic :S

Originally Posted by daven

i think this is spot on
villain showed AK and i allowed myself a smile

Wonder what made villain take this weird line with TPTK and how you got a read that he could be doing this with TPTK?

Maybe you'd been Davening the table for one hour before?

Originally Posted by lautaaaaaa

It's not a rule, it's a statistic :S

you're dumb

You'll see AA, AK there sometimes.
For me this comes down to what I think of villain. If he seems kind of nervous/emotional - bets/checks really fast or has lost a big pot recently then I'm more likely to call cos he could be lost with AA, AK, KJ.
Without too much history I guess there's enough random stuff in his range to at least make it a close call. I really think it's close tho.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

you're dumb

you're dumb

Originally Posted by lautaaaaaa

you're dumb

Dude, be nice, he is one of the best players here who has the patience to volunteer free advice to micro noobs although he plays much higher stakes himself. Listen to him and be thankful because he is good and there is a lot to learn from him.

He can be a bit rough sometimes, but you can always file a hurt feelings report...

And by all means, get rid of that freaking avatar, I've been having nightmares ever since I've seen him...

Well I didn't mean to be mean, but he was rude to me :S There's no need to call me dumb, I mean, that doesn't help much and I can't learn too much from ''you're dumb''. I would be much more thankful if he tells me why I'm so wrong. That's all.

Originally Posted by lautaaaaaa

Well I didn't mean to be mean, but he was rude to me :S There's no need to call me dumb, I mean, that doesn't help much and I can't learn too much from ''you're dumb''. I would be much more thankful if he tells me why I'm so wrong. That's all.

Okay since you asked. Just because people rarely flop sets and flop sets even more rarely when we have a set(obviously). Telling yourself people almost never have a sets or w/e isn't the greatest way to go about playing a particular hand.

Example: A really a tight guy calls our EP raise in the BB(Range of say 88-QQ,AQs,AKs). Flops comes 7JQ he checks the flop, we bet our bottom set. This villain c/rs us. The board is super dry and this guy is always going to c/c 2nd pair and c/c top pairs, he folds to c-bets ~65% and c/rs ~5%. Okay so villain is going to have a set X% of the time right? No because this guy pretty much has a set VERy VERY often. Say 80% of the time.

In this example putting your villain on a range of hands pre-flop then giving up a flop range for c/cing, c/ring and c/fing. This tells us that we should fold our bottom set.(You are never going to run into villains THIS tight except someone like TripCCC(lol for the ppl who remember this guy). Anyways the point is if you were to use hey, nobody like ever flops a set as an excuse to stack off here. You would make a very VERY -eV play. It's better to analyze peoples ranges. Not random statistics like people flop flush draws X% or people flop 2pairs or sets X%.(Although these are useful if used correctly)

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

Okay since you asked. Just because people rarely flop sets and flop sets even more rarely when we have a set(obviously). Telling yourself people almost never have a sets or w/e isn't the greatest way to go about playing a particular hand.

Example: A really a tight guy calls our EP raise in the BB(Range of say 88-QQ,AQs,AKs). Flops comes 7JQ he checks the flop, we bet our bottom set. This villain c/rs us. The board is super dry and this guy is always going to c/c 2nd pair and c/c top pairs, he folds to c-bets ~65% and c/rs ~5%. Okay so villain is going to have a set X% of the time right? No because this guy pretty much has a set VERy VERY often. Say 80% of the time.

In this example putting your villain on a range of hands pre-flop then giving up a flop range for c/cing, c/ring and c/fing. This tells us that we should fold our bottom set.(You are never going to run into villains THIS tight except someone like TripCCC(lol for the ppl who remember this guy). Anyways the point is if you were to use hey, nobody like ever flops a set as an excuse to stack off here. You would make a very VERY -eV play. It's better to analyze peoples ranges. Not random statistics like people flop flush draws X% or people flop 2pairs or sets X%.(Although these are useful if used correctly)

Thank you for the explanation ! so u mean that against those kind of predictable players that only c/r with set+ is ok to fold a bottom set?