You need to be careful here because you're verging on being pretty results orientated. I'll try to put this briefly and simply. In terms of Sklansky's theorem you made him play his
hand different from the way he should play it if he can see your cards, however that's far from the full story. You've put this guy on a
range of Jx 6x overpairs and underpairs - for the purposes of making this point I won't argue with that
range (although I'
m not convinced by your reasons for discounting Jx on the
river). What really matters here is whether he makes one of these Sklansky type mistakes often enough for your bet to be profitable, given the
range you can put him on. In this situation the only thing that's a mistake with this
range is folding so the question can be reduced to "how often does he
fold vs how often he needs to
fold?"
When you
shove 18.75 to win 10.30 your bet needs to work bet/bet+pot amount of the time or 64% of the time.If you think he folds his whole
range this often then okay it's not -EV. However, if he folds a similar amount to a bet of say $14.50 then you've just saved 42.5 big blinds which is like 2100 BB/100 - not that this
spot comes up very often, but yeah just to put it into scare factor perspective!
Now go make what you think is his
range on the
river and work out what % of it folds to this
bet size by counting
combos and stop caring about the fact he folded and made a Sklansky mistake with this one small segment of his
range otherwise known as a hand.