When we get to river in the first instance, villain is bluffing 30% of the time, or 30 out of 100.

In the second instance, the number of nut hands he has hasn't gone down, surely?

You're saying he now only has 40 nut hands and 60 bluff hands, I'm saying he still has 70 nut hands (why would he have less nut hands because he bluffs more??) and 60 bluff hands

And we are both sat here waiting for someone better than us at poker to correct us!


Edit: dammit bucket beat me to it!!