Bluffing Frequency Quiz

Yeah, there's a shit load of assumptions we've gotta make, but

In the first instance, villain is betting 7 nut hands for every 3 bluff hands so our equity is 30% since we win 3 / 10 hands.
If he doubles his bluffing freq, its 7 nut hands for 6 bluff hands - 6 / 13 - so our equity is 46%

Originally Posted by Duck Hunter

Yeah, there's a shit load of assumptions we've gotta make, but

In the first instance, villain is betting 7 nut hands for every 3 bluff hands so our equity is 30% since we win 3 / 10 hands.
If he doubles his bluffing freq, its 7 nut hands for 6 bluff hands - 6 / 13 - so our equity is 46%

seems to me that if you're doubling your frequency, and your frequency is 30%, you will now make it 60% amirite? 30% to 46% is not doubling your frequency; the way you calculated it is by adding an equal number of combos to the bluff range while maintaining the number of nut hands (not the same thing obv).

Of course I may just be completely misunderstanding the question and, plz can haz forgivness if I r rong?

Lets say there were ten hand combos in villains range, 3 of which where bluffs. Now he bluffs twice as much. Clearly he will still bet his made hands as well. For this reason, we must change the fraction to 6/13 as suggested by previous posters.


Another way to look at this is say our villain has 20 possible hands with which he can get to the river. In the original scenario he bets 7 of these hands for value, and bluffs with 3 of the other 13 hands. This gives our villain a bluffing % of 3/13 x 100 =23%. In words this means 23 percent of the time he gets to the river with a non nut hand, he fires. if we suggest his bluffing percent doubles he will now be bluffing 46% of his air hands. 46% = 6/13.

Please do not confuse the percent chance villain with bluff with air with our equity. They are not the same.

When we get to river in the first instance, villain is bluffing 30% of the time, or 30 out of 100.

In the second instance, the number of nut hands he has hasn't gone down, surely?

You're saying he now only has 40 nut hands and 60 bluff hands, I'm saying he still has 70 nut hands (why would he have less nut hands because he bluffs more??) and 60 bluff hands

And we are both sat here waiting for someone better than us at poker to correct us!


Edit: dammit bucket beat me to it!!