Bluff fail

I am on Button, with two nits in the blinds.

SB is running 14/6 and folds BB to a raise 100% over 260 hands
BB is 11/5 and folds BB to raise 100% over 180 hands

Action is folded to me so I assume its a good opportunity to steal. Then with a call, I try and stab at the flop.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($4.02)
SB ($5)
BB ($5)
UTG ($5.85)
UTG+1 ($5.05)
MP1 ($5.53)
MP2 ($5.10)
MP3 ($3.58)
CO ($1.94)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4, J
6 folds, Hero bets $0.15, SB calls $0.13, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.35) 7, 9, 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.22, SB raises to $4.85 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $0.79 | Rake: $0.05

Results:
SB didn't show
Outcome: SB won $0.74

Where did I go wrong? Was the flop too wet to bluff at? Should I have bet more preflop?

Your post should include your own stats, as well as your opponent's 3-bet pre stats.

Reasons for your bluff fail may include, but are not limited to:

1) The board not being the type you were very likely to hit; the only "value" part of your perceived range is large pairs, some Axs hearts, occassional sets; outweighed, by far, by the part of your range that's basically "lopl I miss't flopbut now he be checkin, I are betting ldo"
2) Your opponent having the top of his range.

The reason I ask for your stats is that if your opponent is at least somewhat aware of them, and you have been cbetting a ton and stealing very often, it makes little sense for them to allow you to continue your exploitation.

Anyhow, this isn't very bad at all. I'd say your opponent is probably just a weak idiot who either a: "couldn't take anymore" of your stealing, not realizing that a much smaller raise would accomplish the same thing, or b: binked some massive hand and was "afraid of redraws". These assumptions rest on his stats and the fact that he's obviously a moron.

I probably wouldn't c-bet that flop, but it's not a big deal. You played the hand fine. You took a stab. He strangely shoved, and you folded air. No problem.

I was running about 12/8.

I really wasn't trying to steal too much at all. Maybe 3 times in 50 hands I stole from Button or CO

Would a check and then steal attempt on turn be better?

Well, what do you think SB's range is here, profnabeshin?

Preflop I put him on {A9s+, AJo+, 88+}

Considering that he is tight and that he doesn't call OOP from blinds often:
Postflop:
{Ahxh, A9,99,JJ,QQ}
I think KK+ 3bets preflop. [Ah6h or 99] would make the most sense.

Reload.

Originally Posted by profnabeshin

Preflop I put him on {A9s+, AJo+, 88+}

Considering that he is tight and that he doesn't call OOP from blinds often:
Postflop:
{Ahxh, A9,99,JJ,QQ}
I think KK+ 3bets preflop. [Ah6h or 99] would make the most sense.

I've been seeing a lot of players put ranges as A9s+ or 88+ or 22+ whatever. That means you guys think they have AA-QQ/AKs/AKo in their range. Maybe they do, but are you being realistic? I know you catch yourself later on in the post which is good.

Anyways, why can't he have other sets/other draws/straight here?

Originally Posted by kmind

Anyways, why can't he have other sets/other draws/straight here?

I suppose he can. Perhaps I should rethink his entire range. I'll admit that I have been wrong many times on ranges. I try to put someone on a range based on previous action or betting or position.. only to find that they called a preflop raise OOP with 49o and flopped a trips (real hand).

Well.. I know what is the most important thing that I work on now...

I think that once you get called by a nit who folds 100% of his blinds to raises over a significant sample, it's better to take a passive line. Plus the flop texture is not good for a cbat.

Getting called by someone who folds his blinds like 100% - even 75% would be a warning sign that he's either making a stand or woke up with a big hand.
Since you havent been stealing much, like 6% I'm thinking that he's sitting on something he really likes.
I'm not sure that I would have c-bet this flop...it's out of the range that I'm repping with the PFR and it's too wet, but still...taking one stab at it isn't the end of the world.
He shoved, you folded....NH
If he's a thinking player though, he might try the same thing in the future the next time you try to steal...so I'd make sure I had a hand when I went for it again.

Originally Posted by supahaole

Reload.

This. Why aren't you full stacked? If you have $5 here, his shove is nearly 20bb larger, which is just great.

Firstly, the assumption that you must have gione wrong just because you didn't win the hand is totally illogical. If this was the case we'd be able tio win 100% of hands in poker.

Okay so let's work out if your c-bet is good or bad.

Step 1 - The Preflop Range

Villain is pretty damn tight so we give him a calling range preflop here vs your BU open and then work out how much of that he needs to fold on the flop to be profitable then see how much he does fold.

Preflop lets go for something like: QQ-55,AQs-AJs,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,AQo-AJo,KQo

So the better PPs that he isn't 3 betting, same for boradways and suited connectors. Since you're opening the button, I think even a nitty guy like this will play a range somewhere around this region.

So now we work out how often he needs to fold in a vaccuum for your C-bet to be +EV

Step 2 - Maths of your c-bet

You're risking 0.22 to win 0.35 + your 0.22 back. So....to break even here this c-bet has to work 0.22/(0.35 + 0.22) x 100 % of the time. If you have no equity etc and you can never win the pot on later streets.

So 38% of the time we need folds here.

Now in the actual case we probably do have close to 0 equity here but very rarely we can hit a J and make the best hand etc and have back door draws. So lets assume that numbers a bit lower and estimate 35% of the time to be safe. This is how often he needs to fold to your c bet, this is a shitty board to barrel vs his range so I wont give you any equity for those possibilites.

Step 3 - How often does he actually fold

Right back to that preflop range, first what does he fold.

AJ = 11 combos (we block 4 and he doesnt fold AhJh)
AQ = 15 combos (he doesn't fold AhQh)
KQ = 15 combos (doesn't fold KhQh)
QJs = 3 combos
JTs = 1 combo (estimate that he folds a gutter + 2 overs 1/3 of the time)

That's about all he folds of his range vs that c-bet for a total of 44 combos

So how many combos are there in total in this range.

AJ = 12
AQ = 16
KQ = 16
QJs = 3
JTs = 3
T9s = 3
QQ = 6
JJ = 3
TT = 6
99 = 3
88 = 6
77 = 3
66 = 3
55 = 6

89 combos (I think)

so he's folding 44/89 or 49%.

Step 4 - The Conclusion

So given his range contains this many broadway combos and no extra combos of middling suited connectors, the c-bet looks totally fine. He may even have 22-44 sometimes which fold also. If we take out like all KQ combos and add some of 87s 76s 98s instead we'll find it's less fine but it depends on his preflop range. We need more information to know exactly whether this range is precise but it's a damn good estimate given the info we have imo.

If he ever bluff raIses us on this board then we get folds less often from his "folding" range but we'll assume this isn't the case for this guy. So this can be a bad board to c bet vs lots of guys who 3 bet all these boradways and flat mainly pairs and suited connectors. If this guy's been 3 betting we can take out shit like AQ. He hasn't though, so this actually makes him an okay villain to c-bet this board vs because

1. As we see, the boradway combos he wont 3 bet make a LOT of his range

2. He wont bluff raise us with what we assume to be his folding range

3. He doesn't have as many lower medium suited connectors and gappers as most.

I've thrown this together very quickly so if there are errors I apologise, but I think it does the job. This is the sort of analysis you need to be doing in these spots and not "LOL WHAT DID I DO WRONG"

Btw although he's folded his blinds 100% so far, the gap between vpip and pfr does suggest he is capable of flatting a range wider than that would suggest. It could be tighter than this and upon reflection this range is maybe a little on the loose side given he may be super super tight oop. If you want to adjust it take out some combos of KQ etc maybe lower PPs and SCs and do the same calculation. It's the method that I'm mainly trying to teach here.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

This. Why aren't you full stacked? If you have $5 here, his shove is nearly 20bb larger, which is just great.

I had a buyin set at 100BB's and auto topup set for 80BB's.

--fixed--

auto topoff is not set for 100BB's.