Big rolls and big databases

So I've recently passed 30k hands at all levels in my PT database.
There are hands in PO which aren't counted and some from incompatible sites and those on iPoker before I got PO.

Overall I have an 11ptbb/100 and am up about $100, to which one can add several bonuses and peraps $200 from a couple of ther sites.
The vast majority of my 11ptbb comes from 11k on $5NL at 30ptbb/100.

From PT the graph of BBs looks okay:


There's a dip last month, but the overall trend is good. But looking at dollar values instead:



The swings are much more noticeable and you can probably see why at the end of last month I was just not sure what I was doing.

Since then I've tried a "reboot". I've gone back to playing $5NL and I've started playing 6-max at the 0.02NL tables at stars.
Not only is this giving my stats a nice kick without risking much of my roll it's allowed me to do things like get experience 8-tabling etc.

But I had a bit of an "aha" experience when I looked over this last week.
I had a really sucky day midweek. Everything was wrong. I lost about 2-3 bbuy-ins at $5NL and a bit more elsewhere.
But it didn't bother me too much.
A couple of good day's later and I've made the losses back with interest.

Part of the reason for the confidence is that losing $30 from a $600 roll is nothing. So a big bankroll is important.
But also I've got a good track-record at $5NL. It'll take quite some run to really make my stats look bad at that level. When you're thinking in terms of 1k hands then a couple hundred bad hands mean little.

So how do you take that to levels where you don't have the roll or the experience to shrug it off.

I've got 2.5k hands at $50NL and I'm down three buy ins at -6ptbb/100.
I had to drop back down to $25NL again (and in the end, although I had the roll for $25 I dropped further for confidence reasons).

So I'm thinking of setting myself a huge target for $25NL. I'm thinking that I'm going to play 50k hands (i.e. another 40k) of $25NL and re-evaluate.
Hopefully I'll have got a nice 4+ptbb/100 rate at that level by that point.

If all goes well that would probably mean I'd have enough from that to give a good shot at $50NL again. The real challenge will be to keep playing at the same level even when things seem to be going well and when I have passed the $1k mark.

So, good plan? Bad plan?
How else can you deal with the swings of moving up levels? I know some people cruise up the limits while others get stuck. It's probably a case of if you start well you can handle the setbacks, start badly and you feel behind. In which case what's a good buffer to take with you?

Sounds solid. You should definitely play at least NL25. You have to be able to cope with losing money. Playing within a safe roll is always great, but NL2 and NL5 is ridiculous with a $600-roll assuming you are at least a decent player. I say stick to your plan and if it backfires out of some reason and you lose a couple of hundies step down to NL10 and work it out from there.

Dont be silly. 11k hands at 30ptbb/100 means move up. You can easily beat 10NL and you know you are a winning 25NL player too. If you hurt your confidence at 25NL then drop back down to 10NL for a couple of thousand hands and then get back to the grind. You're rediculously overrolled for 10NL and from what ive seen you are overskilled aswell. I can understand if you feel the need to drop down to regain some confidence occasionally. Im sure we all do. Dont overdo it though or youll find that when you do eventually try to get back up there youll have picked up bad habbits that youll need to overcome once again. You realise a few hundred hands is nothing at 50NL so dont let it bother you at 25NL. You know you can beat that game. You just need to give yourself a chance to settle. Get back to 25NL and build some character .

Yea, I agree with what Pelion is saying here. Move up to where your BR allows as long as you are confident at that level. If you arent confident, then keep grinding it out until you are.

In regards to your goal of playing 50k hands at $25nl, I guess I dont really see the point in this. Am I saying to jump right up to $50nl? No, but I am saying to just play at $25nl until your BR is atleast $1k. How high was your BR when you took those shots before?

I might not have the moral authority to tell you to move up, but go back to 25 immediately. You'll be fine.

Originally Posted by andy-akb

In regards to your goal of playing 50k hands at $25nl, I guess I dont really see the point in this. Am I saying to jump right up to $50nl? No, but I am saying to just play at $25nl until your BR is atleast $1k. How high was your BR when you took those shots before?

My BR just reached $1k and I was running really well at the time so I took a shot.
Now I don't know if my nightmare period on Empire's $25NL tables was connected, but it was part of that studden, dramatic BR plunge.

As for the high targets. I'm just beginning to think that trying to forget BR and think about playing x-hands is probably better; and 10K isn't really long term. Playing 30-40k is something a bit more significant and hopefully will help me iron out a few of the kinks.
Hopefully have enough of a BR to take a 5-buy-in downswing at $50NL and still be rolled for it.

Originally Posted by pellion

Get back to 25NL and build some character .

One thing about the $5NL.
If I allow myself a conservative rate of 20ptbb/100 while 8-tabling that's an expected rate of about $6 an hour.
I don't think I could manage more than four tabling $25NL and that means I'd need a ptbb/100 of at least 8 to get the same return; not sure I can assue that.

So I've got 9 days left at the Party networks ATM tables and I plan on milking them as much as possible until I get kicked off... I'll probably never be able to run at 30ptbb again, so I'm enjoying it while it lasts.

Originally Posted by bion-overrolled-dino

I might not have the moral authority to tell you to move up, but go back to 25 immediately. You'll be fine.

How's $50NL treating you?

Hahaha - not too badly - I haven't tried $100 since my disaster the other night. Still mainly playing £25 though - have a 15PTBB/100 at £25NL 6max over the last 5,000 hands so it's treating me well at the moment.

Originally Posted by Anosmic

Originally Posted by andy-akb

In regards to your goal of playing 50k hands at $25nl, I guess I dont really see the point in this. Am I saying to jump right up to $50nl? No, but I am saying to just play at $25nl until your BR is atleast $1k. How high was your BR when you took those shots before?

My BR just reached $1k and I was running really well at the time so I took a shot.
Now I don't know if my nightmare period on Empire's $25NL tables was connected, but it was part of that studden, dramatic BR plunge.

As for the high targets. I'm just beginning to think that trying to forget BR and think about playing x-hands is probably better; and 10K isn't really long term. Playing 30-40k is something a bit more significant and hopefully will help me iron out a few of the kinks.
Hopefully have enough of a BR to take a 5-buy-in downswing at $50NL and still be rolled for it.

You can still iron those kinks out while moving up. The difference between the two games are very minimal, if you can beat $25nl you can beat $50nl. So if you have the BR you should move up, as long as you are willing to move down which you seem to be.

Originally Posted by Anosmic

Originally Posted by pellion

Get back to 25NL and build some character

One thing about the $5NL.
If I allow myself a conservative rate of 20ptbb/100 while 8-tabling that's an expected rate of about $6 an hour.
I don't think I could manage more than four tabling $25NL and that means I'd need a ptbb/100 of at least 8 to get the same return; not sure I can assue that.

8ptbb/100 at $25nl is achievable with a solid game, if you work at it you should be able to achieve that. The thing is though, while you may not get to that rate and earn the same amount, you will learn quicker playing against better players. You arent playing for a living Id assume, so dont worry about your hourly rate, try to improve. Staying at these microstakes is going to stagnate your improvement.

Originally Posted by Anosmic

So I've got 9 days left at the Party networks ATM tables and I plan on milking them as much as possible until I get kicked off... I'll probably never be able to run at 30ptbb again, so I'm enjoying it while it lasts.

Try out the beginner $25nl tables, Pelion says they are incredibly soft, and I wouldnt doubt it