A Bet too Far?

Hey there, your input would be much appreciated.

Three things i'm interested in here:

1) Should I have been betting the turn after getting called on the flop?
2) Should I be laying the hand down to villain's pretty small turn raise?
3) Does his range for doing this include 88 and 99?

Villain runs 12/9 over about 90 hands. CO stealing range is as wide as A3s but he's been seen to bet 4bb in the co with this hand, not 3bb as below. 3-bet calling range, even from possible re-steal (i've pinched a fair bit of dead money up to now), has got to be considerably tighter.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) -

SB ($9.20)
Hero (BB) ($20.85)
UTG ($21.45)
UTG+1 ($4.15)
MP1 ($4.45)
MP2 ($10)
Villain (CO) ($13.35)
Button ($10)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J , A
4 folds, Villain raises to $0.30, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1, Villain calls $0.70

Flop: ($2.05) J 7 , 7
(2 players)
Hero bets $1.40, Villain calls $1.40

Turn: ($4.85) 10 (2 players)[/color]
Hero bets $3, Villain raises to $7.30, Hero folds

Total pot: $10.85 | Rake: $1.05

I see my bet sizes are a little low (again) on both streets.

As for villain's range, the question is whether or not he'd make this move with 88 or 99? If he does i'm probably good to get my money in. If not, i'm nakered. Any guesses as to his range? Probably one of the more knowledgeable players at these small stakes.

Thanks

I'm no expert, so grain of salt etc.

He's running 12/9 over 90 hands - this is no coincidence so he's playing a narrow range pretty disciplined. It's probably also a positionally aware range. If A3s is in it I put his CO opening range around this:
22+,A2s+,KQs,AJo+,KQo (13.4%)
(anything missed in this range will fold to 3bet regardless)

If he raises A3s to 4bb standard this should discount A3s and hands like it - other raggy aces. We don't know if he deliberately raises to 4bb with just raggy aces and AA or if he does it for an illogical reason, so we can only assume it applies to raggy aces.

He'd probably 4bet something like AA, KK (AK sometimes)

IP in a 3bet pot he might be flatting some of the traditional trouble hands - he still folds most of his raggy aces and some of the lower pairs, but he might flat with:
77-QQ, AJs-AKs, AKo-AQo, KQs

On the flop he'd pretty much fold only AsKs, AsQs, AKo, AQo, KsQs. With you having 3bet PF the J is the only card that can have hit you and a lot of your 3betting range that isn't already a pair will have missed. It's likely any part of your 3betting range that missed will be cbetting as a bluff, so he can't really fold a lot of hands with any equity. So I have him calling with made pairs (quads, sets, overpairs) as well as overcards with backdoor draws to both flush and straight. With the turn bet and raise I put his range on:
QQ, JJ, TT, 77, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AhJh.

When you bet the turn you are obviously willing to stack off and get all the money in the middle. That's a powerful message and his reply is eager. 99 and 88 have to know they're beat here imo. I don't see him bluffing much here. If he was playing just the one table and exploiting the hell out of his image, then yes. But I expect him to be a multi-tabling nit who only enters into situations that are clearly profitable to him.

Against my range your equity is 21.7%. You need about 22.1% equity (or more) for calling to be profitable.

In my range analysis I overstate the presence of straight and flush draws in the villain range. They will not be as prominent as I make out, but they shouldn't be ignored. Especially my comment regarding multi-tabling nits only entering into clearly profitable situations applies here. When we start taking those hands out your equity drops dramatically.

I respect this villain - and I respect you for finding a fold here.

Edit note: Oh yeah the questions. Got caught up in analysis mode, sorry.

1) I think so - I think his calling range here is relatively wide. Not because the flop hits his range well, but because he knows it doesn't hit yours well and he might want to peel one off.
2) I think so - his raise is really strong. He can't expect you to be sitting on an AK type hand and be willing to fold. He wants a call. The parts of his range that called to keep you honest and don't have equity is folding here.
3) I don't think so.

Did you exhibit any timing tells in the hand? Were you very slow to decide to bet flop or turn?

Second edit note: Bet size could justifiably have been smaller. In 3bet pot you don't generally need to bet big to price out high implied odds drawing hands because there simply isn't that much money behind. So don't worry about it being too small at least.

Originally Posted by Erpel

I put his CO opening range around this:
22+,A2s+,KQs,AJo+,KQo (13.4%)
(anything missed in this range will fold to 3bet regardless)

This is the only part of your post I really have a problem with. There is no way villain is opening AXs and no other non-ace broadways except KQ. A more realistic CO range is probably:

22+, AXs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, KJo+, QJo

Considering that he is loose enough to open any suited ace, I'd probably add in 54s-T9s, and maybe a few other suited hands as well like K9s, Q9s, J9s, and maybe a few other broadways like KTo, QTo, and JTo.

With how deep we are, villain can flat any of his pairs and any of his suited cards against us with pretty good odds. A conservative player (or someone being tricky) could even flat with AKs and QQ+, especially since he will be in position. Thus, I would put his range going to the flop as:

22-QQ (some AA and KK), AXs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, 54s-T9s

Of that range, what hands call the flop (I like the flop bet size BTW... it's a dry board, so there's no need to bet more than 2/3 pot)? Villain might not believe that board hit you, but I think he still folds his lowest pocket pairs since they play bad on later streets. Villain also should be folding his KQ hands, but I've seen a lot of dumb crap so I'll leave that in. So we have:

77+, AJs, A7s, AcQc, AcKc, AdQd, AdKd, AhQh, AhKh, KJs, KdQd, KcQc, KhQh, QJs, JTs, 76s, 87s

We're actually not doing as good as you might expect against this loose range on the flop (I left KK out of the range since only some AA and KK are going to this flop):

Code:

Board: Jd 7c 7h
Hand 0: 	39.083%  	37.42% 	01.67% 	         18521 	      825.00   { AA, QQ-77, AcKc, AdKd, AhKh, AcQc, AdQd, AhQh, AJs, A7s, KcQc, KdQd, KhQh, KJs, QJs, JTs, 87s, 76s }
Hand 1: 	60.917%  	59.25% 	01.67% 	         29329 	      825.00   { AsJc }

So we're in decent shape but we're not especially happy with our hand at this point, and especially not once the turn comes:

Code:

Board: Jd 7c 7h Tc
Hand 0: 	52.079%  	50.63% 	01.45% 	          1047 	       30.00   { AA, QQ-77, AcKc, AdKd, AhKh, AcQc, AdQd, AhQh, AJs, A7s, KcQc, KdQd, KhQh, KJs, QJs, JTs, 87s, 76s }
Hand 1: 	47.921%  	46.47% 	01.45% 	           961 	       30.00   { AsJc }

Yikes! We should clearly be checking this turn in position, but since we're out of position we don't have that luxury. The next best option, IMO, is to bet/fold the turn. When we do that, we should be betting for slim value: we actually want to almost price draws in. If we're raised on the turn, we have to dump our hand expecting that we're beat, so the next best option would be to bet an amount that allows a drawing hand to call while leaving us in control of the pot. For that reason, I think betting $3 on this turn is too much. An amount like $2.50 charges draws sufficiently, doesn't look super-weak, and allows Villain the option of calling with a draw instead of being forced to raise or fold.

Anyways, what hands are raising on this turn? I think the non flush-draw AQ hands are probably folding. I think KJ and QJ probably call since there's no real value in raising. AJ might raise for value or to protect their hand. 88 and 99 might semi-bluff (each has about 6 outs to the near-nuts). QQ+ and any 7 certainly raises here since the board just got more drawish and they're looking to build a pot anyways, and JT is raising since they just hit top 2 pair (although it's losing to QQ+ and a raise is probably incorrect). 77, TT, and JJ are probably raising here to make sure they can get the rest in by the river, and this small amount should be the right price to keep you around. So in my opinion, Villain is raising small here with a pretty good draw that he just doesn't want to lay down and can't really call profitably, or is raising small here to build a pot and get the rest of your money in on the river. The new range, and your equity:

Code:

Board: Jd 7c 7h Tc
Hand 0: 	57.927%  	56.60% 	01.33% 	          1021 	       24.00   { AA, QQ-77, AcKc, AdKd, AhKh, AcQc, AJs, A7s, KcQc, KdQd, KhQh, JTs, 87s, 76s }
Hand 1: 	42.073%  	40.74% 	01.33% 	           735 	       24.00   { AsJc }

Naively, we only need 22% equity to call here. The problem is what is going to happen on the river. We are going to be out of position, with the pot at $19.45 and villain having $3.65. In other words, we are never going to be able to fold. So by calling here, we are effectively calling $7.95 to win a total of $26.75, so we need 30% equity. In other words, we're still good to call, but we actually can't just call here, because if we call, missed draws can check behind or fold the river and we lose the equity that we do have against those hands that were drawing. Basically, we have to put it all in now.



BUT... let's say villain isn't calling with less than a pair on the flop. Let's also assume that AJ just calls the turn. Now villain is never on a draw, and we're not doing all that great:

Code:

Board: Jd 7c 7h Tc
Hand 0: 	64.463%  	64.33% 	00.14% 	           934 	        2.00   { AA, QQ-77, A7s, JTs, 87s, 76s }
Hand 1: 	35.537%  	35.40% 	00.14% 	           514 	        2.00   { AsJc }

but because of the pot size, we still have to get the chips in.


So with the line so far, I don't think we can fold... our most +EV (or least -EV) move here is to shove over. If we had bet smaller on the turn, we could have made a case for an implied-odds fold to his raise, but running the numbers, we would have needed to bet no more than $1.35 to be able to fold to a raise, and that would just be absurd.

So really our best option is just to check the turn. I think we can potentially check/call and re-evaluate the river since we're pretty much a coinflip against his range going to the turn. On a 2-6 non-club or 7 river we can check/call easily. On a J river we're in great shape. We don't like a K, Q, 9, or club much, and on A or 8 we really don't know where we stand, so these river cards will make up the toughest decision on whether or not to check/call, check/fold, bet/call, or bet/fold.


Wow, one more addition. If we can bet like $2-2.50 here and assume that draws (AK, AQ, KQ, flush draws, 99, and 88) will call and only somewhat big hands will raise us, then I actually like bet/folding this turn:

Code:

Board: Jd 7c 7h Tc
Hand 0: 	80.824%  	78.69% 	02.13% 	          1108 	       30.00   { TT+, 77, AJs, A7s, KJs, QJs, JTs, 87s, 76s }
Hand 1: 	19.176%  	17.05% 	02.13% 	           240 	       30.00   { AsJc }

Originally Posted by DoanDiggy

This is the only part of your post I really have a problem with. There is no way villain is opening AXs and no other non-ace broadways except KQ. A more realistic CO range is probably:

22+, AXs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, KJo+, QJo

Considering that he is loose enough to open any suited ace, I'd probably add in 54s-T9s, and maybe a few other suited hands as well like K9s, Q9s, J9s, and maybe a few other broadways like KTo, QTo, and JTo.

The thing is - not only do we not know that he's loose - we know that he is not loose. He's 12/9 over 90 hands, that's no coincidence. If A3s is in his CO range he must be preferring suited aces over at least some broadways.

Your range ignores ATo+ which I assume is implied and that's a 17.6% range without adding in suited connectors, other suited hands and other broadways. That would suggest a button range above 20% giving him really next to no way to end up with a PFR of 9 - which we know he has. The only way we can explain A3s and a PFR of 9 is a heavy bias towards suited aces over unpaired broadways. I don't find that too unreasonable a range for a nit - his loose plays are still with holdings that make nut hands.

Anyway, as I said in the part quoted any additional hands in his range would fold to a 3bet anyway, making it irrelevant for analysing this hand, and I was just as content not to find the fine line here as in this hand it wouldn't really matter.

Villain cannot flat against us very well at all. The stack odds for his call are 18.6 to 1 - below target for playing for set value alone. 25 is more realistic there as sometimes you'll lose with a set and sometimes you won't get a full stack out of a set. Suited connectors if in his open range are almost completely out.

The SPR achieved is 6 - good for TPTK hands that rate to be favourites, not for draws and hands that need a lot in the way of implied odds. It's perfectly true that the villain can flat with AKs and QQ+ - whether he's being tricky or cautious or whatever. But that's always the case. I mentioned AA, KK as 4bet hands mainly as a range exercise - we not only cut the hands out the range that would fold, we also cut the hands out that would take another action (raise when he called, bet when checked etc).

Btw, we're doing much better against your loose range than against mine - I still think mine is too loose for this villain!

But I'll say this - your hand range makes for more interesting analysis.

Umm, someone who's 12/9 could EASILY have 20% button raise stats just as long as he raises like 6% UTG

also, 15:1 is plenty for set hunting because sometimes you'll win the pot uncontested

so 3b like a man, stick in 1.20
then we bet 2 on the flop and shove the turn

easy

Ok, I didn't go full hog on the range. If we include the suited connectors etc, the proposed range is 23.1% for CO. While CO can be almost as wide as BTN, there might still be some more hands in BTN. UTG, early position and blind ranges have to go down in the 5% area to make up for that. It's not impossible, true - I just still think it's too wide. I've read a couple of different people outlining that they raise about 3 times as many hands from BTN than from UTG, expressing that as if it's a much bigger difference than most people would expect. The proposed ranges here suggest a 5-6x difference.

That said, I agree that a bigger 3bet would have allowed us to easily commit on the flop and stack off. The question is if that would have been profitable against the CO's 3bet calling range.

ok, 23% for CO is a bit wide for a 12/9
a reasonable range is like 18%

and as played I'd probably check/shove the turn and get coolered because he probably has me beat
but this way I extract money from hands that are behind that are trying to float me

a common line ive seen from monsters is the call on the flop and raise on the turn

Also, I think this raise is really strong due to raise size. Raise size is impossible to judge unless you have actual reads tho - but I'd be more inclined to think he does this with sets/quads than with draws/vulnerable top/over pairs.

As we were talking about ranges, I put together this post. I think the results are somewhat interesting and pretty relevant to the discussion we're having here.

I saw it, I applaud it, I still think your 3bet-flatcalling range for him is too wide. Maybe it's just me being naive about what people play though. He is in position so should be at liberty to call with trouble hands. I still think he'll stay away from lower pairs though, and prefer higher pairs over high suited connectors.

I definitely need to think some more about what people call 3bets with.

his ATSB stat is more important that his vpip/pfr

Spoken to spenda at length on this, but i'm liking your input, nice to think about equity analysis.

His ATSB was, off-the-top-of-my-head, about 35-40%: my 3-bet was always a re-steal/fold until the jack came.

I still just fail to believe people in certain spots:
"He's stealing too much, i'm 3-betting good here
"He's called my 3-bet because he's spotted i'm re-stealing
"He thinks now i'm c-betting and is going to use position to bully me

Not "he can't actually call my 3-bet with anything but hands that beat me"

I'm rambling anyway, but maybe i'll stop being so disbelieving as i spew up these ridiculous inner dialogues! Thanks for your input.