Bet sizing questions

$0.13/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($40.64)
UTG+1 ($25)
Hero ($34.99)
BTN ($7.77)
SB ($26.99)
BB ($48.81)

Pre-Flop: ($0.38, 6 players) Hero is CO
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.63, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.20, BB calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.03, 2 players)
BB bets $2.67, Hero raises to $???

Villain is 24/18/1.2 with an 8% 3bet over ~100 hands.
Preflop I put this guy on mostly broadways, pairs up to TT, maybe 78s+. Could be wider because we're semi deep.

When he calls flop I narrow this to to Kx, a bunch of stubborn mid pairs and slowplayed sets excluding KK. I feel sets usually c/r hoping I have a K in these spots.

He leads turn which seems odd but could be Kxhh or AK (discounted) & KQ making sure I don't Cb with an ace or some kind of draw. Could also be the set finally making its move but would be a wierd line to take.

It seems obvious we should raise here but stack sizes are somewhat awkward. A raise to $9.75 would leave a psb remaining for the river. I worry this large a raise will narrow his range to just nut hands and Kxhh. Would making a standard 3x raise be better value? Also induce him to shove his draws more often?

I wouldn't raise here. If stacks were a tad smaller then maybe because I doubt he'd flat smaller PPs. His play looks really stupid and I would flat and flat most rivers to a medium-sized bet and bet when checked too. Maybe I'm too passive...

Also, is the converter messed up or is the SB really $.13?

Yeh it's messed up. Should be $0.10

Originally Posted by kmind

I wouldn't raise here. If stacks were a tad smaller then maybe because I doubt he'd flat smaller PPs. His play looks really stupid and I would flat and flat most rivers to a medium-sized bet and bet when checked too.

+1

Really don't understand his play, but to me this looks like either a set/king (KQ, KJ, KTs) that doesn't want you to check behind the turn or something that picked up a heart draw (although what heart draws are calling the flop, esp since you have the Ah).

I think I would just raise here. I don't expect him to flat PF with 54s oop, and I don't expect him to call cbet with 22. Therefore, we're really only worried about 44, 55, or 6 combos in total. I think I'd raise somewhat small and try to get him to call with a K, maybe something like 6.75 or 7.00. Then I think I'd put in like a 1/2 pot bet on a blank river.

I'd flat here just because I don't think villain is really going to be calling turn raise and then a bet on the river with kx. I would assume he is far more likely to c/c river than b/c turn. Also if we call turn and bet river our line looks a ton more like hearts.

+ here's villains turn equity with the non set portion of his range


Hand 0: 87.226% 86.29% 00.94% 1101 12.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 12.774% 11.83% 00.94% 151 12.00 { AcKc, AsKs, KQs, KhJh, KhTh, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, KJo+ }

Ie. letting him draw really isn't THAT bad

just the $.02 from a guy who pays $.02 blinds