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 Originally Posted by Ripptyde
Jeffrey you are mistaken on your estimate of the odds in this situation
assuming his opponent was on pocket Aces he is a FAVORITE on the flop to win this hand
with your opponent on pocket Aces versus an open ended straight flush draw...the numbers are 56% for the draw to 44% for the overpair
normally I check my draws but this hand is strong enough to be betting into with so many outs IMO
Note that I was discussing each taken separately as being approximately 30%. Taken together that would be about 60%, which is why I said pushing would be an option. So I was off by 4%. That a big deal?
What I mentioned was that since he can rely on them to stay in the hand either way, he might as well draw for as cheap as possible. If the players are going to lay down their hands, it's different, but if they are certain to call when he makes his hand, why not limit the cost of not making it?
- Jeffrey
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