Beginner hand read (gone wrong?)

Ok, this is for beginners, so I've left in certain things which I tend to agree confuses matters, such as the result. I will be doing analysis as best I can first with open cards, then with closed cards to illustrate the dangers of attributing any value to the result. First - the hand.

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
10 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($9.90)
UTG+1 ($1.90)
UTG+2 ($4.70)
MP1 ($10.12)
MP2 ($6.02)
Hero ($12.44)
CO ($8.45)
BTN ($42.34)
SB ($10.39)
BB ($4.55)

Pre-flop: ($0.15, 10 players) Hero is MP3
5 folds, Hero raises to $0.4, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.4, 1 fold, BB calls $0.3

Flop: ($1.25, 3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.8, BTN calls $0.8, BB folds

Turn: ($2.85, 2 players)
Hero bets $1.9, BTN calls $1.9

River: ($6.65, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Final Pot: $6.65
BTN shows:
Hero shows:

BTN wins $6.32 ( won +$3.22 )
Hero lost -$3.10
BB lost -$0.40

I had 50 or so hands history on the villain with his stats around 25/12/2 and I hadn't seen him in any showdowns - and besides I've only recently begun taking hand reads seriously so wouldn't have any notes on him anyway.

PF thinking:
I see a QJo, which I'd possibly rather not play 2 positions off the button, but the table has been folding an awful lot and I'd decided to open my range anyway. On this table I judge there's a 50% or better chance of me taking down the blinds with it and I can see a few flops that it could hit hard while also being good for other hands so I'm not too worried about opening with it. I get two callers, one of them on the button so I'm OOP for the hand. Not the best news.

Playing with PokerStove:
I will go through the hand first with the pocket cards face-up. For a beginner (like me) I think it is a useful counterpoint to the hand range analysis that we are limited to as we play the hand.

PokerStove rates the Equity PF thus:
QcJs: 38.89%
AhTh: 61.11%

PokerStove rates the Equity on the flop thus:
QcJs: 74.34%
AhTh: 25.66%

PokerStove rates the Equity on the turn thus:
QcJs: 88.64%
AhTh: 11.36%

It is tempting as a beginner to go through a superficial analysis like this (the actual cards do matter, right?) and come to the conclusion that in this case the Hero did nothing wrong. It is also wrong.

When you look through a Hand History of a hand that went to showdown you are not trying to determine if you did the right thing in the hand based on the actual cards - (it is done using ranges instead - see below) - but rather trying to determine how the villain plays in this specific spot so you can take good notes on him. A note I'm considering for this villain is this:
Doesn't 3bet ATs on the BTN

I don't think I can fault him for calling the near 2/3 bet on the flop as he has a gutshot. The flop is scary, but it would be perfectly reasonable for him to think I cbet any missed flop. I don't think it is necessarily wrong of him not to raise in this position on the flop. So no comment on that account.

On the turn his hand improves. In the face of a second barrel he's calling with top and bottom two and a gutshot. With the second barrel he can't really assume that he's ahead unless he's up against total air, and he has 0, 2, 6 or 9 outs to improve his hand to a winning hand (4 J to the straight which beats any trips or two pair, 3 A which beats any two pair, 2 T to a boat which beats any two pair, straight or trips or 0 outs if the Hero is holding KJ or KT - yes K could make a boat also, but wouldn't help if Hero has K or J - more complications). The PokerStove calculations can be done from his perspective also, putting me on ranges etc to determine if he did the right thing.

And then he checks the boat on the river. I'm not sure that's a check-behind situation for him. I think he should have value bet here.

Going back to PokerStove - now using ranges instead of his actual cards. I'll put in a 13% range, adjust it to 13% slightly towards lower PPs, suited connectors (and away from Axs) just assume he'll PF 3bet AA, KK, QQ, AKs, AKo and AQs and deduct those from the 13% range.

PokerStove rates the Equity PF thus:
QcJs: 42.30%
JJ-22,AJs-ATs,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AQo-AJo,KQo: 57.70%

(Deducting no hands to give Equity straight on the flop before betting)
PokerStove rates the Equity on the flop thus:
QcJs: 74.71%
JJ-22,AJs-ATs,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AQo-AJo,KQo: 25.29%

Now - we have to deduct hands. We have to deduct the hands that would have raised the flop bet and the ones that would have folded to the flop bet.
Deducting 22-TT, 87s-98s (leaving in T9s due to the straight draw)
The only hands I think should raise the flop are AJ and QJ as they have top two and are worried about drawing hands.
PokerStove rates the Equity on the turn thus:
QcJs: 52.56%
JJ,ATs,KJs+,JTs,T9s,AQo,KQo: 47.44%

Now, I should have known on the turn that my equity had fallenfrom around 75% to 53% simply because he called. But I didn't think of that - and that may make my turn bet questionable. In a couple of iterations of this analysis I left in AJ and QJ and my equity fell to 32% or so. Including AJo in his range is also not too far fetched and would also skew the numbers. My equity on the turn is 53% and not 89% because the hand he happened to hold is not the only hand he would have played the exact same way.

Actual thought process:
On the flop I'm very scared of the KK and I'm perfectly happy if I can take down the pot right here. I have top two and it's not a bad hand, but lots of Ks and drawing hands are in (both) my villains' ranges. I lead in with a 2/3 pot bet trying to appear unruffled by the flop and hope they will put me on a K and fold.
On the turn.. I probably tilt. I see that my hand improves! I now have an open ended straight draw. I can't lose! I forget to consider my opponents range - I particularly forget to consider that all the hands I can beat just folded to me, but this guy didn't. I'm still slightly worried about straight draws and kings, but with my straight draw to counter trips I think I'm probably much better off and happily fire away at the turn.

EDIT:
River thinking which I forgot initially.

With the T pairing it dawns on me how much of his range I'm now behind. Any T or K would have me beat. AQ a very probable hand. I decide to slow down and call a smallish value bet only - $2-3 or so.
END EDIT

When the hand ended I thought I had a great hand to take to analysis and sat out of my table to come here and share it.

To those who consider the above somewhat pedestrian I have two questions:
1) Is this on the whole a sound analysis? (and further to this point) Is a 13% range reasonable for his PF call with his stats? It is around his PFR (12%) and below his vp$ip (25%). I know it's a judgement call, but do people generally call a standard raise only with hands they would PFR, more hands or fewer hands?
2) Based on this particular Hand History which notes would you take on the Hero and on the Villain?

Analysis - same hand - version 2:
Having just posted it and read through it there were two conflicting thoughts running through my head
1) He could have had KJ and it's not in my range
2) Do not add hands in later streets after you have ruled them out in an earlier street.

So, I posted as is, went for a thinking and came to this: If your assumptions are wrong your results will also be wrong. Namely, this villain may very well be positionally aware and have a wider range on the button than in another spot. He may very well have noticed I have a high agression factor and thus is likely to stack off - an even wider range.

So, PokerStove on ranges - version 2:
PF: Any pocket pair. Any two broadways including ATs-JTs, ATo, QTo, JTo but not KTo. Suited connectors down to 87s. Suited one-gappers to J9s. Actually, let's throw in KTo for good measure. This gives us 19.2% of hands that a guy with 25/12 would call a standard raise with when he's on the button and knows the raiser is a bit aggro. Suddenly all too plausible.

(did PF wrong in version 1 - I took out AA etc already and should have left them in)
PF Equity:
QcJs: 42.18%
22+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+ ,JTo: 57.82%

Flop Equity:
QcJs: 68.39%
JJ-22,AJs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,AQo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo: 31.61%

The flop still favours me! A bit. Now we need to take out any hand without a J or K or straight draw as they would have folded. And we have to take out many J (except JJ and KJ) hands as they would worry about only having two pair and might raise to keep drawing hands out. KT and KQ would also raise as it does not have a straight draw and would be outdrawn by it.

This leaves AQo, AT, QT, T9s as drawing hands and KJ and JJ as made hands in the range.

Turn Equity:
QcJs: 64.76%
JJ,ATs,KJs,QTs,T9s,AQo,ATo,KJo,QTo: 35.23%

Ok, now I'm confusing myself. I thought by the more generous definition of broadway hands I was including more hands in the villains range that could cause me worry. Did I just include more hands in the range that are 4-outers and thus increase my equity while carefully cutting out all hands that pair the J as they would have raised even if those were the hands I was worried about?

Addendum (yes, I go on forever)

Reading through the two analyses one difference is that JT was left in as a hand that would call the turn in version 1 and taken out in version 2.

I think if a villain with JT was playing correctly he would raise on the flop (as in version 2), but at these blinds the villain is likely to not understand this and simply call on the flop and pray.

My personal feeling is that I would decide to assume that the villain plays correctly as the conclusions that follow that assumption are likely to serve me better as I play against better opponents. If looking to draw optimal benefit from a given situation (benefits of actual reads, knowing players at these blinds suck etc) you would want to customize the ranges to what mistakes you know your actual villain makes.

In the absence of proof of incompetence I think it is probably most instructive, though perhaps not accurate, to assume the villain plays correctly.

More analysis - same hand. No, I'm not in love with it.

Villain POV:
ATs on BTN is a playable hand - the tight aggro "Hero" fella on the right raises to 4bb and villain decides to play ATs in position.

Table has been very passive so this could be an out of position steal with air, but best probably to give him credit for a proper hand. Call it any pair (raised to disguise smaller pairs), any two broadways, any suited connector 87s+, any suited one-gapper J9s+ (Yep, same as villain range in version 2 above).

Preflop Equity:
AhTh: 51.46%
22+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+ ,JTo: 48.54%

Hero didn't get a chance to 3bet, so AA etc is not removed from his range.

Flop Equity:
AhTh: 37.68%
22+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+ ,JTo: 62.32%

Ok, flop hits the Hero's range better and he's donking it or c-betting or whatever you call it when he's second of three to act. Villain's gutshot looks like it has good implied odds on an aggro Hero and who knows - if a heart comes on the turn equity goes up. Worth a call for one more card certainly.

Unfortunately this Hero's been c-betting a lot before and we can't really say for sure that he would slow down and slowplay a set or boat. He's representing because the board is scary.

Ok, I've talked myself into a corner here. I can't view Hero in an unbiased manner, because it's me - and I probably would bet any two cards because the flop is so scary. Could someone please give me some Hero pocket holdings that he would not bet here? Any pocket pair I'd semi-bluff with as I can't know for sure if the other guy has a J until he looks me up. Any two broadways give something I'd bet in this way even if only a straight draw. J9s, T9s qualify. Only two hands I'm not sure about are 98s and 87s. Ok, let's rule those two out for a not much slimmer hand range.

Turn Equity
AhTh: 44.11%
22+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo: 55.89%

Now, which hands would Hero make the turn bet with. Let's have a look at post turn bet equity. With the T on the board straight is much more likely and any hand threatened by the straight draw would bet to find out where it is at or price out any straight draws. Maybe this would be a good spot for Hero to slow down a KK, KJ, JJ, KT or TT hand. AQ now has the made straight, but could not slow down as the board has paired and a boat may be in the offing. Underpairs probably slow down. They're still made two-pair hands but they would rather check to a showdown than pay for it.
AhTh: 21.82%
AA,QQ,ATs+,KQs,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,ATo+,KQo,QTo+,JTo: 78.18%

Ok this is funny - and probably misleading. Is it fair to use that range for Hero's hand in this situation as villain?

River Equity (same range as the bet above):
AhTh: 72.14%
AA,QQ,ATs+,KQs,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,ATo+,KQo,QTo+,JTo: 27.86%

Ok, the river hits our villain well! Hero checks - which hands would Hero only check with in this situation? What's he afraid of? Is he trying to induce a bluff? We've already taken a lot of boats out of his range because we thought he'd slow down with them on the turn. So what would he bet at this point? All remaining kings just made their boat (AK and KQ) and might be making a value bet. Would an AQ straight dare go for a value bet with 2 pairs on the board? Doubtful. They'd likely call a smallish bet though. Any remaining Ts would probably also do a value bet. AT, QT, JT, T9s. So - because Hero checked we have the below:

AhTh: 100%
AA,QQ,ATs+,KQs,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,ATo+,KQo,QTo+,JTo: 0%

Villain really should have value bet the river.

Ok, last post - promise.

I continued version 2 above to the river and we get a predictable 100% equity to the villain and 0% for the hero.

However, funny story - let's assume we're neither hero nor villain but sitting on the sidelines taking notes on them and for one reason or another miss the showdown itself - using the last two hero and villain ranges:

Hero: AA,QQ,ATs+,KQs,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,ATo+,KQo,QTo+,JTo: 30.3%
Villain: JJ,ATs,KJs,QTs,T9s,AQo,ATo,KJo,QTo: 69.67%

I'm sure there are times when it's appropriate to think more about what the Hero can reasonably assume about the Villain's range and what the Villain can reasonably assume about the Hero's range, but I'm not sure this is that type of situation, and I think it goes beyond the beginner hand reading which I thought I should limit this thread to as I'm not even sure I'm qualified to discuss that.

I'm not even sure that the equity described right here is ever a sensible measure to consider.

lol i dont think you are going to get many responses, that is about 1500 too many words to read and interpret.

I didn't read all of this but you obviously deserve some kind of response, so just a minor: you really don't have to make a note that he doesn't 3-bet ATs from the button, as this is very standard. Reserve your notes for stuff that tells you something useful about the player, and don't make them too specific. If he did 3-bet ATs you could make a note like "3-bets light" or "3b+ btn".

Too long, I know. To be honest there's probably more value in me writing it, than in anyone reading it. One of those pedagogical principles - that I understand and learn something better myself if I try to relay the point to someone else.

In truth the post is very very pedestrian to anyone except the most green of greenhornes (which includes me). I'm thinking about rewriting it as a more generic beginner guide to hand reading. Add in some useful section titles and break it up so it can be read in bits and so each bit makes sense.

What dawned on me while I was writing it is that when people do line checks on hands and someone comes in and says c/c, push or whatever, what could be useful would be if they also said which note they would make on the Hero or the Villain based on the hand history - particularly in the Beginner's Circle where people can be assumed to still be learning these things. Admittedly this is counter to the general principle of not posting the results to wean beginners off the idea that results are important.

I see two big weak points in the analysis. One is that I'm not sure what note (read) this should translate into. The other is that I'm not sure the initial ranges and the way they are reduced are accurate. The first one is kind of a critical problem if I want to turn this into a generic guide. The second really isn't critical, as the idea is to have the generic guide step through how a hand is analysed and turned into a read.

One of the main problems with my thinking and the line I took is that they were one-step only lines. I decided on the flop to bet - I didn't decide to bet/fold, bet/call or bet/raise. As played I should probably bet/call on the flop and bet/fold on the turn.

Wow, that like 230 words per cent. I can't comment because I just can't read that much. I just move on, lol. Could have made 10 bucks at the table in the time it took to write this.

Originally Posted by Deuce Blue

Wow, that like 230 words per cent. I can't comment because I just can't read that much. I just move on, lol. Could have made 10 bucks at the table in the time it took to write this.

+EV for me long term I imagine. As they say, when you're learning you should spend as much or more time studying poker as playing.

I massively failed to read all of that but I think youre wrong about what you said from the gutshot. Lets switch positions with him for a minute.

We have AT on a KKJ board and we are against someone fairly tight (i assume) who raised preflop from an early position. We arent getting direct pot odds to call for a gutshot so we need our implied odds to add value if a queen comes.

What kinds of hands can he have that will pay us off? What kinds of hands can he have that we will pay off. What do we do when an A comes.

His range has qute a few hands like KK/KQ/JJ that will ruin us if a gutshot comes. He has quite a few hands like AK/AQ/AJ that will take more money off us if an A comes. He has a few hands with Queens in that take away some of our outs. And even if we hit on the turn he has a lot of outs on the river with something like AK and even has some outs with something like AJ.

Drawing to a low percentage draw without the right pot odds when it wont even be the nuts and alot of his range is nut hands that are better than what we are drawing to is pretty terrible.

v is a moron like pelion pointed out and then checking the boat instead of small value bet on river atleast. idk about firing another barrel on the turn and prolly just c/c small bet on turn and fold to river bet if straight doesnt come. most likely the only hands calling you on the flop flop are ones that beat you [K, AJ] or shitty drawing hands [Q10] basically the only hand u can beat is J10 or J9 junk and those hand arent likely to pay you very much.

Thanks for the feedback - it's very useful. More useful for me because I have spent a bit of time looking at the hand from both sides.

Btw, it's 10max so Hero is in MP3 - not that early a position.

So.. Villain's AT should have folded the flop rather than calling it because Hero's range is too strong vs his holdings (or his range?) - thus I should not have considered AT in his range on the turn. I can see how that shows his range as being stronger and why that should have made me slow down on the turn. I mentioned having looked at a range in the original post around that mark that left me with 30% equity or so on the turn.

And yeah, my assertion that I'd have played the flop the same with 55 doesn't really change it for this villain, as he'd still be up against two pair with his gutshot - so his call on the flop is not a great play.

At this point I'm still trying to learn which hands it is reasonably to drop from a hand range at any step in the analysis. I hope given a few thousand more of these I'll get better at it.

Any particular notes for future hands you'd take on Hero or Villain based on the full hand history?

Just because he "should " have folded doesn't mean you can take hands out of his range if hes loose enough to play them. This is where knowing the player helps.