You should always be making the mathematically +EV decision shouldn't you? Perhaps in this case "going with your gut" means putting him on a much narrower range (KJ,TT,QQ,Q10) which you dont have equity against. If he's said he hadn't been getting any good hands recently maybe he's tilting and shipping it to you with AQ,A10 or one of those combo draws like QJs. Would you have equity against that range?