Bad jam with AA on turn?

Villain was like 52/3 over 50ish hands with an AG frq of 32.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($3.60)
BB ($0.65)
Hero (UTG) ($2.98)
MP ($1.38)
CO ($1.25)
Button ($2.26)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, A
Hero bets $0.08, 3 folds, SB calls $0.07, 1 fold

Given his preflop tendencies and agg factor putting him on a range here is pretty hard as he really could have anything from 46s-JJ. He had been complaining in chat about not getting any hands though which maybe should have tipped me off.

Flop: ($0.18) 9, 5, Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.12, SB raises to $0.24, Hero calls $0.12

Here he defines his range a bit better. Maybe something like AQ, KQ, QJ, 55, 99, JTs, 87s, 9Ts, Q9s, QTs

Turn: ($0.66) 10 (2 players)
SB bets $0.66, Hero raises to $2.66 (All-In)

When he donks to me it could mean three things. Any of the Q hands or sets 2pairs afraid of draws. A completed straight though I thought that was the most unlikely part of his range. Still one of those FD/SD combo draws maybe with a pair as well. QJs for example. The bet seemed like a scared bet so I jammed thinking he might be calling down light with draws or QJ,KQ,AQ and if he's not calling I thought I might have enough fold equity with a potential draw completing that he might drop a hand like Q9.

Total pot: $1.98

Poker stove gave me the following results if his range is 99,55,AQs,KQs,QJs,Q9s,87s,AQo,KQo.

Board: 9d 5d Qh Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.362% 62.36% 00.00% 5433 0.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 37.638% 37.64% 00.00% 3279 0.00 { 99, 55, AQs, KQs, QJs, Q9s, 87s, AQo, KQo }

So that seems to confirm my jam as good but I feel like this might be one of those spots where you have to listen to your gut and stats despite it being mathematically +EV. Thoughts?

You should always be making the mathematically +EV decision shouldn't you? Perhaps in this case "going with your gut" means putting him on a much narrower range (KJ,TT,QQ,Q10) which you dont have equity against. If he's said he hadn't been getting any good hands recently maybe he's tilting and shipping it to you with AQ,A10 or one of those combo draws like QJs. Would you have equity against that range?

I don't like the jam. Why would you take any action against a massive fish that isn't for value? You have no FE against 2p+ hands, and you're folding out tons worse. So how is this a value play?

You are way ahead of his range, and should be looking to get stacks in the pot. Effective stacks are 150bb, so you need to raise and get called at some point to get stacks in. You can min-raise this turn for value, allowing you to easily get stacks in on any river.

I like it as played. Playing people like him in these spots is why you play. nh

Bet pot on the flop. The board is drawy and we need to protect what is likely to still be the best hand.

As played, I would have 3bet the flop to around 0.9. I cant see villian folding many hands out of "Maybe something like AQ, KQ, QJ, 55, 99, JTs, 87s, 9Ts, Q9s, QTs", so there are alot of worse hands that will still call.

A 3bet also makes it easier to get it all in.

flop call is bad.

reraise flop and i hate the jam on the river.

fold to his set imo

lol ^ ... no

Umm you can't use the reasons: "he'll call with one pair hands which I beat." and "He'll fold weak 2 pair hands which beat me." together as they are never both true at the same time. If he's not calling with the Qs in his range the jam is terrible regardless of whether he occassionally folds Q9.

In actuality, I doubt he ever folds two pair and proabably never top pair either having invested this much already and it being 2NL and him being an evidently massive fish.

If he does this with top pair then this seems fine because yeah I agree he'll likely call it off with these hands and draws too for the same reason as I stated above. Idk what 2NL donks typically do, but at 25NL and 50NL, with passive fish, this line is usually a stronger range than you've allocated this guy.

Given that his range is so wide prelflop and he'll never fold draws or top pair, I'd probably go ahead and just 3-bet the flop for value since we have good equity vs his stationy felting range.

Btw, he isn't "donking to you" on the turn. He raised the flop, therefore he has the lead. A donk out is when he calls your flop bet and then leads the turn.

Originally Posted by mbiz

fold to his 2 pair imo

fyp

Definitely ReRaise the Flop.

Save the $2.00 and Flat the River.

Hi

I would have reraised flop too. But jamming on turn against villian cant be bad...