Good analysis, but i think given villians line he's super unlikely to check flop with spades and then minraise you when he misses on turn, so i think you can discount some spades (other than 89-69 spades maybe).

yeh what mark said- you dont have to be ahead of more than half of villians range to justify calling. You need 33 percent equity to call a pot sized bet on the river, so even when you are behind some of the time you can call. On turn you can pot odds call the raise, as you have some equity against 1pr hands without a T (best case scenario you have about 13 outs (to hit 2pair, trips or your OESD), probs round it to 9-10 because sometimes villian will draw to a better hand when you hit your 2pr/straight).

If he's that donk i dont mind a call, but i would be pretty scared of a nut type hand showing up. I dont think it's spades that much of the time though.