ColdDecked, I think you also are failing to take into account his redraw for full house. If he stacks off to the T on the turn (he will if he has 22), he has a 1 in 4 chance to outdraw us on the river. This is the difference between breaking even and losing money.

OK, my calculations might be wrong, but as far as I can see, playing the hand 100 times results in losing $19.50.

If this is wrong, someone needs to demonstrate why. Until then, I consider this a bad call.