aqs utg - check on Vil's range?

No reads, my first hand played at this table. Vil is 29/18/7 over 17 hands. Call PF and Raise on the flop suggests he has AK AJ KQ KJ QT 22, less likely AA KK JJ but not totally ruled out. On the turn bet I'm thinking 2 pair, straight or set. Pokerstove shows I'm crushed, so I'm going to fold. Is there anything I'm missing in my thought process? Should I have folded the flop?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($2.50)
Button ($30.70)
SB ($20.20)
BB ($10)
Hero (UTG) ($9.85)
MP ($18.45)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, A
Hero bets $0.40, 2 folds, Button calls $0.40, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.95) K, 2, J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.60, Button raises to $1.50, Hero calls $0.90

Turn: ($3.95) A (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $2.10, Hero ??

fold. if u want to call ur best hope for his hand is AT. he might be doing this with sd/fd like QTcc, QJcc or something but - fold.

seems like an easy turn call and fold to a decent/big river bet

Easy fold at the flop, if you ask me. Stinks of deuces.

if he has a set deuces the flop is a call

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

if he has a set deuces the flop is a call

Really? 90 cents call into a $2.70 pot gives pot odds of 1:3, which would require around 12 outs to make a call. I count 4 outs.

If you think he has a set, you have a gutshot and nothing more. I'll say it again... Easy fold.

Sorry, the pot is $2.85, I forgot the blinds. Pots odds barely improved, I can't even be bothered to work it out accurately, it's around 1:3.18.

Of course, even if we get lucky on the turn and hit our straight, he has nearly a quarter of the deck to hit back.

Taking this into account, you can drop your pot odds by a quarter.

So, you have pot odds of around 1:2.6, and 4 outs from 47 cards.

EASY FOLD!!!!!

lol. Easy fold!!! lol. hahahhaa
call turn

Originally Posted by tugger

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

if he has a set deuces the flop is a call

Really? 90 cents call into a $2.70 pot gives pot odds of 1:3, which would require around 12 outs to make a call. I count 4 outs.

If you think he has a set, you have a gutshot and nothing more. I'll say it again... Easy fold.

implied odds

Originally Posted by daven

Originally Posted by tugger

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

if he has a set deuces the flop is a call

Really? 90 cents call into a $2.70 pot gives pot odds of 1:3, which would require around 12 outs to make a call. I count 4 outs.

If you think he has a set, you have a gutshot and nothing more. I'll say it again... Easy fold.

implied odds

Implied odds? It seems we don't have enough money to take into account implied odds.

Ok, you're going to hit your hand on the turn around one in ten times. You remaining stack is $7.95 at the point of decision, the pot is $3.05, he has you covered, and it's all going in on the turn if we hit. We'll assume he calls, making the pot $18.85, though $7.95 of that was invested by you after the point of decision, so profit is $10.80 in the event we hit our straight. For now, we're assuming we fold if we miss the turn.

Let's play the hand a hundred times.

90 times, we miss the turn and fold. This costs us $90 more than if we just folded to the flop raise (100 x 90c).

10 times we hit the turn, and all the chips go in. This costs us a further $7.35 (x10), though I've accounted for that by just considering profit after decision point, not the entire pot.

He hits his full house or quads on the river 2 or 3 times out of this ten, we'll use the lower end of the scale, let's say twice.

So, we win the pot 8 times in 100. Our profit is $86.40 over these 8 hands.

But, he bankrupts us twice by making a full house on the river, costing us $15.90

The other 90 times we lose a total of $90.

So, over 100 hands, we make $86.40 profit, and lose $105.9, net loss $19.50.

My calculations might be wrong, but I'm pretty sure the implied odds are not there, and as such, it's an easy fold.

If we move all in on the flop instead, then we lose more than $90 when we miss, we lose $7.95 x 90, or $715.50, and still gain just $89.20, over 100 hands. That's a huge deficit that just results in quick bankroll demolition.

Can you elaborate BigSpenda cause it looks like tugger is right. One in ten times we hit our straight on turn so we need to win $9 to make it break even, but thats discounted by his redraws. Against this player aces and queens are likely to be outs though so flop call seems kinda close but good to me, and i always call turn reeval river.

Pre flop - we raise, he calls.

Flop - KJ2 - we bet - what hand can he put us on? He has to credit us for at least the jack, probably king, yet he raises us. That's AK at the very worst, probably KJ or a set of dueces. Perhaps jacks or kings, but I'd expect him to reraise kings pre flop for sure, and probably jacks, on the button. I think we can discount K2 and J2, let's assume he's not a donk, since we have no notes. AA is an outside chance, and QQ is unlikely, based on the turn bet, but at the flop we can be forgiven for considering this hand. Of course, he could be bluffing, but again, we have no notes, we have no idea how reckless this player is. We have to credit him for a real hand, and our hand is weak compared to anything that's a genuine raise at the flop.

I must confess my surprise at how many people will call a gutshot here. At the risk of pissing a few people off, I think it's something a few people need to look seriously at. Chasing gutshot straight draws is the act of a donk, unless of course you're genuinely priced in. And crying implied odds when they don't exist is also donkish. I assume most people who contribute to this forum do so to improve their game, so it might be worth looking into things like pot odds and implied odds before making calls like this.

I don't mind the c-bet at the flop one bit, though. In fact, the c-bet should save us money, because he raises and tells us our hand is bad. If he just calls, we might be tempted to carry on firing. We asked him a question, and got a definite answer. It'd be crazy of him to be raising this flop with anything weaker than AK. So take the information he has given us, and muck your hand.

Spenda is right. The flop is a must call if villain is on a set of deuces. It's true that right now, we call $0.9 to win $3.05, making it approximately 3:1. If we just look at that it's an easy fold. But we have to factor in implied odds.

When the T hits, there's no way villain is folding to our shove because our hand is so well hidden. Think about it. If you are the villain and you have a set of deuces in this spot, and a T hits the turn. Now, hero checks, you bet, he shoves. You have a bottom set on a board that looks draw-heavy, but there's no way you're folding since your hand is crushes the hero's range. Hero could easily, have caught 2 pair, or had KQ and have tpgk with a backdoor draw. This means we're essentially calling $0.90 to win $11. Now our chances of hitting on the turn is 11:1, and we're getting 11:0.9, making this a slightly profitable call.

Hero also has a backdoor flush draw and an overcard which may not be good, but given the bet sizing and stack sizes, hero's priced in. Also, villain doesn't always have a set here.

Chasing gutshot draws isn't always the act of a donk as you say. Gutshot draws are usually very well disguised. And if you have a backdoor draw to go with your gutshot, you can sometimes continue on the turn with a strong draw against a made hand. If you play with proper odds, gutshot draws can be profitable.

Now as for the hand, turn is a call, river is a c/f to any reasonable amount.

Tugger is Phil Gordon in disguise?

Must be a weird world you live in Tugger, than no one ever bluffs, can I play in your games?

if we are gs chasing a set is a dream hand for villain to have on the flop. Assuming we hit the turn we can just open shove and get paid off 100 percent of the time. Tugger do you really think a micro player is ever folding a set ?

Did you guys not read my post on implied odds?

The villain is calling his set or two pair almost every time on the turn, ten or no ten. I know that. But, we're all in at the turn, we can't win any more than our stack, which means the implied odds are limited.

I didn't take into account the backdoor flush, fair enough. However, this is more than a 1 in 40 shot (8 outs from 47, then 7 from 46) when we discount the K and 2 of hearts. This will improve our pot odds and implied odds only slightly.

"Must be a weird world you live in Tugger, than no one ever bluffs, can I play in your games?"

Of course people bluff. But isn't this our first hand against this guy? I personally think it's bad to assume someone is bluffing if we have no info on the player. Personally, I would credit him for a hand, 22 or KJ. Even if he's bluffing, what we hoping for? QT is about the only bluffing hand that might raise the flop, then bet the turn hard. If you're considering his range to be any two cards, then sure, go ahead and call. Otherwise, if you're narrowing his range down to the kind of hands you'd see playing this way, we're far behind.

"Assuming we hit the turn we can just open shove and get paid off 100 percent of the time."

No, not 100% of the time, because he has a set, and will improve to full house or quads on the river 1 in 4 times. So we'll get paid off 75% of the time. Again, please read my post regarding implied odds, I've broken the hand down, and played it mentally 100 times, to see if this is a profitable call. It isn't. I want to make profitable calls.

"Chasing gutshot draws isn't always the act of a donk as you say."

I didn't say it was always donkish; if we have the correct pot odds or implied odds, then it's not a donk call. But we have neither in this instance, so it's either an easy fold, or a donk call.

If he has a set of deuces, we don't need the backdoor flush for us to have the odds to call. Try calculating the implied odds again. Look at the stack sizes and bet sizing. Since we're using an example where villain has a set of deuces here, assume he stacks off a T. You should come out to $0.90 to win $11, which prices us in for just the gutshot straight draw on the turn. Hitting the gutshot on the turn is about 11:1, therefore, in the case of villain having a set of deuces, we do have the proper implied odds to call.

ColdDecked, I think you also are failing to take into account his redraw for full house. If he stacks off to the T on the turn (he will if he has 22), he has a 1 in 4 chance to outdraw us on the river. This is the difference between breaking even and losing money.

OK, my calculations might be wrong, but as far as I can see, playing the hand 100 times results in losing $19.50.

If this is wrong, someone needs to demonstrate why. Until then, I consider this a bad call.

um, if we know he has a set of deuces why do we have to ship it in on the turn after we hit our straight? We can c/c and then ship any non-board pairing rivers and he'll still get it in happily.

Originally Posted by Parasurama

um, if we know he has a set of deuces why do we have to ship it in on the turn after we hit our straight? We can c/c and then ship any non-board pairing rivers and he'll still get it in happily.

So what, we check the turn if we hit? And you think he won't bet? If we hit the ten, the chips are going in, one way or another. It doesn't affect the implied odds one bit, because our implied odds are directly related to our stack size. It's still either a bad call or it isn't on the flop, regardless of how we play should we hit.

If the ten comes, his set is even more vulnerable than it was. He must know we have at least an ace, so even if we haven't made our straight, we now have a gutshot, from his point of view. He now has even more reason to protect his hand, he really doesn't want to see a queen or ace.

I think calling a gutshot then giving him a free card to outdraw us is even worse a play than simply caliing the gutshot at this price.

interesting stox ev says calling the flop reraise bet has a -ev of 28 cents

thats assuming that we just open shove when we hit

I guess that's the backdoor flush, then. Assuming we hit 2.2 times in 100 hands, that wins us 2.2 times our stack, approximately making the difference.

Wow. Still, I'd fold in an instant.

Thanks for that, littleogre.