AQs flops flush draw

1-1 PL live, I have the tightest image at the table.

I raise in EP with As-Qs

2 calls behind, BB calls.

Flop comes 5s 6x 9s.

BB is a pretty dangerous aggressive player, he leads into me on the flop. I had a feeling that he was leading into me often if he thought I raised PF and missed on the flop.

Do I put him on a draw, and raise (committing me to the pot at this point), risking running into a set/two pairs?

How deep are the stacks?

I had about 140bb, he has me covered.

just call him and float the overs and draw. you most likely have 11-14 clean outs. dont raise him, yet. reel him in. and control the pot if you miss.

when you hit, BOMB him. make him think you are putting the moves on him with scare cards.

if he's truly aggro, you will get his stack here.

I raise almost every time

If he is dangerous aggressive, does that mean he is good? if so, I see no need to raise. He's going to push back with any strong hand, and fold the weakest hands possibly including some of draws we share. Here are some situations:

1) He has a monster. If we raise, he pushes back and we may be forced to call, or fold giving up equity. If we just call, we get his stack in many cases as his hand is big. Our implied odds are huge in this spot, I do not want to destroy them by raising in this spot.

2) He has a monster draw. This is the best situation for raising as we have the best hand in this situation, but it is also unlikely as we have 2 spades.

3) He has a weak hand. Raising gets him to fold. We win a small pot with the worst hand, and risk getting raised off the pot. But if we just call we may still be able to take the pot away on the turn when he slows down or a scare card hits.

The fact that it's pot limit makes this decision difficult. I agree with floating here.

seriously if you want to play any kind of balanced strategy raising this flop is almost a requirement.

Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill

seriously if you want to play any kind of balanced strategy raising this flop is almost a requirement.

Why would you want to play a balanced strategy?

Originally Posted by piratepeaty

Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill

seriously if you want to play any kind of balanced strategy raising this flop is almost a requirement.

Why would you want to play a balanced strategy?

to not be easily exploitable and easy to read

Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill

Originally Posted by piratepeaty

Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill

seriously if you want to play any kind of balanced strategy raising this flop is almost a requirement.

Why would you want to play a balanced strategy?

to not be easily exploitable and easy to read

First, nobody pays attention.

Second, you should be varying your play in case people are paying attention.

Third, these guys have hardly any hands on us as we have hardly any on them.

Fourth and most important, I'm never going to make a play that is significantly less profitable for the sake of "being less predictable" especially considering points 1-3.

Originally Posted by piratepeaty

Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill

Originally Posted by piratepeaty

Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill

seriously if you want to play any kind of balanced strategy raising this flop is almost a requirement.

Why would you want to play a balanced strategy?

to not be easily exploitable and easy to read

First, nobody pays attention.

Second, you should be varying your play in case people are paying attention.

Third, these guys have hardly any hands on us as we have hardly any on them.

Fourth and most important, I'm never going to make a play that is significantly less profitable for the sake of "being less predictable" especially considering points 1-3.

Seriously I will raise this pot with AQ OFFSUIT against the type of player described a good percentage of the time. I don't do this because I hate money.

Yeah, he was probably the only good regular sitting at the table, seems to be quite experienced. I did raise, and then he pushed me over forcing me to call with what turned out to be 8 clean outs -- 6 of spades hits on the river to give me the flush and opp his full house with 56.

Against an observant and thinking opp like him (not the maniac that some have understood my original post to mean -- aggressive in the sense that he wasn't a loose passive fish like most people at these places), wouldn't a smooth call basically define my hand as some kind of draw seeing that an overpair woulnd't want the two players behind to come? Opp told me that he put me on an overpair btw. Would I still have implied odds then?

a call doesnt always mean a draw...its just a good indicator. would you raise with 78 here? only if you are afraid of the spade.
you may also slow play a set, but prolly not on this board.

however, you have nothing but potential with this flop...and BIG potential at that. therefore, why dump money in when the aggro says he hit something? he may be on a bluff, but he may have bottom pair, too. and bottom pair has you beat, but barely because of your draw. thats why you float, imo. you want to catch something you are more comfortable playing.

raising with AQo is a completely different story. you advertise power to blow him off his bluff. when he plays back, you dump w/o costing too much. because of the spades hitting the flop, you are gambooling for a stack because he is aggro.

smart aggro, or uber-aggro, makes no diff to me here. i know he will lead as long as i let him. and i can bust him if i hit.

of course, if the A or Q hits only, i lose my stack almost everytime here w/o a second thought.

but he hit a 4-outer on the river? not much you can do here, either. he got quite lucky the "right" spade hit.

Originally Posted by eugmac

Yeah, he was probably the only good regular sitting at the table, seems to be quite experienced. I did raise, and then he pushed me over forcing me to call with what turned out to be 8 clean outs -- 6 of spades hits on the river to give me the flush and opp his full house with 56.

This is what I was talking about, you only get action when you are behind, and thus kill your implied odds.

Against an observant and thinking opp like him (not the maniac that some have understood my original post to mean -- aggressive in the sense that he wasn't a loose passive fish like most people at these places), wouldn't a smooth call basically define my hand as some kind of draw seeing that an overpair woulnd't want the two players behind to come? Opp told me that he put me on an overpair btw. Would I still have implied odds then?

It might, but if he has a big hand, it doesn't matter. You are getting odds to draw. If you raise, you are putting your money in bad if called/raised.

If he has the same draw, you have great implied odds.

And you bring up another good point, by calling you let the other 2 players in the pot as well. This is good for you, you are drawing to the nuts.