AQ , turn 3x reraise

i have no reads on villain, just that he's been at the table for 30 min and played nothing.

pre flop him calling i put him on guess like AJso+ and any 22-QQ, i do believe would reraise KK+


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

CO ($1.96)
Button ($4.34)
SB ($0.62)
BB ($1)
UTG ($2.19)
Hero (UTG+1) ($5.86)
MP1 ($5.29)ions
MP2 ($2.03)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with ,
UTG calls $0.02, Hero bets $0.10, 3 folds, Button calls $0.10, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.25) , , (2 players)
Hero bets $0.24, Button calls $0.24

he snaped call the bet, that made me think he has a made hand

Turn: ($0.73) (2 players)
Hero bets $0.70, Button raises to $2.06

hero?

i think is a fold. he would take this line only by sets, sometimes maybe 99-JJ and AQ, but since i have no reads on him , i prefer folding.

with reads he would do this TPTK or 2nd pair i would call.

i wanna now if is correct folding here for these reasons above and also if psb flop and turn here is ok.


edit: i know its a standard hand but i am questioning myself lately and i wanna be sure about my actions

I think folding is correct. This is either an epic bluff or he's got you crushed.

I also think you're betting too much for the board texture, there's no solid draws to be pricing out. Having said that, his willingness to snap call a pot size bet on flop then raise another on the turn tells us a lot about how strong he feels his hand is. But I think we get the same information with smaller bets, and lose less when we fold. We also tempt any weak draws he might have, say TJs, to peel off a street when we bet less. I'd fire something like 70% on both streets.

It's a fold because 99% of people just won't exploit you like this. Also bet smaller on the flop and turn because of what OngBonga said. If you have more reads then you can deviate from this "set" strategy.

Easiest fold ever. Especially after you pot the turn.

Tip: When you bet big and it get's raised, opponent has a hand.

fold. nh.

yup. ty. i folded, even now i dont know what he had... i followed him after this and watched him playing, he had a mix play on the turn, but always reraised sets or 2 pairs so a fold was good there i guess.

Agree with everyone, snap fold, you have a pair ffs.

This be the fish death line. It's pretty much ALWAYS the nuts, and never a bluff.

i get in these spots also with KK, AA.... i tend to fold these also if villain is unknow. if i had here KK+, also villain unknown, would it be ok to fold oberpairs also?

Yes, thou canst fold uberpairs

I'm much more likely to fold top pair than an overpair. Sure I can fold AA if villain does enough to convince me it's beat, but I need a read at 2nl to make that fold, meaning I'm often stacking off against an unknown when my aces are beat. Having said that, I might still fold AA in this spot, we have enough of a read on him to determine he's playing tight, but if this was his first hand at the table and I have AA, then the fucker will take my stack.

Think about how wide his range has to be before you could call the turn even if there was not going to be any betting on the river. Now with betting on the river, his range has to be even wider than that.

when it comes to situations like this i count combos, lets take this hand for example:

combos that beat me: 3*44, 3*77, 3*88, 1*QQ,because he is butt in his range i count also 78s*3 and 56s*4, that is 17 combos that beat.

me holdind on this hand AQ or KK+ and him doing this i only beat 99-JJ which is 12 combos... i would have equity 49%, but is very unlikely we would raise 99-JJ here...

this is the way i think this kind of hands, post it here just to make sure i am not wrong, i mean even that i have shove equity here, its very rare he will 3bet 3x 99-JJ.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

when it comes to situations like this i count combos, lets take this hand for example:

combos that beat me: 3*44, 3*77, 3*88, 1*QQ,because he is butt in his range i count also 78s*3 and 56s*4, that is 17 combos that beat.

me holdind on this hand AQ or KK+ and him doing this i only beat 99-JJ which is 12 combos... i would have equity 49%, but is very unlikely we would raise 99-JJ here...

this is the way i think this kind of hands, post it here just to make sure i am not wrong, i mean even that i have shove equity here, its very rare he will 3bet 3x 99-JJ.

ok 1st he isnt raising with 99-jj and its a good fold by the OP...but if he was raising those hands it would easily be a call DUCY?

Originally Posted by Razvan729

when it comes to situations like this i count combos, lets take this hand for example:

combos that beat me: 3*44, 3*77, 3*88, 1*QQ,because he is butt in his range i count also 78s*3 and 56s*4, that is 17 combos that beat.

me holdind on this hand AQ or KK+ and him doing this i only beat 99-JJ which is 12 combos... i would have equity 49%, but is very unlikely we would raise 99-JJ here...

this is the way i think this kind of hands, post it here just to make sure i am not wrong, i mean even that i have shove equity here, its very rare he will 3bet 3x 99-JJ.

He won't be playing second pair like this almost ever. So let's imagine some fantasy scenario where he's stacking off with KQ here. Your actual equity against 88, 77, 44, 87s (which btw is 2 combos, not 3 because two suits are blocked), 65s, KQ, AQ in this fantasy scenario is:

Board: Qh 8d 4c 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.304% 26.96% 10.34% 344 132.00 { AdQd }
Hand 1: 62.696% 52.35% 10.34% 668 132.00 { 88-77, 44, AQs, KQs, 87s, 65s, AQo, KQo }

Random tidbit here, but be careful when you're trying to estimate your equity just by the number of combos when there are cards left to come. If his range was 1 combo of 44 and 1 combo of T9o, it's true you're beating one and losing to one, but it's nowhere near a coinflip:

Board: Qh 8d 4c 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.909% 40.91% 00.00% 36 0.00 { AdQd }
Hand 1: 59.091% 59.09% 00.00% 52 0.00 { 4d4s, Ts9h }

This happens because your equity disadvantage against 44 is much greater than your equity advantage against something like T9o.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Random tidbit here, but be careful when you're trying to estimate your equity just by the number of combos when there are cards left to come. If his range was 1 combo of 44 and 1 combo of T9o, it's true you're beating one and losing to one, but it's nowhere near a coinflip:

Board: Qh 8d 4c 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.909% 40.91% 00.00% 36 0.00 { AdQd }
Hand 1: 59.091% 59.09% 00.00% 52 0.00 { 4d4s, Ts9h }

This happens because your equity disadvantage against 44 is much greater than your equity advantage against something like T9o.

I feel the need to quote this because it's a really important point that a lot of bonks miss. I see people all the time put flush draws in villain's range and use it as a justification to stack off light on flops with low SPRs.

If the bottom of someone's range is the NFD, and the rest of it is sets, 2prs, overpairs or whatever else has you abso crushed, then your overall equity is usually pretty shitty, despite sloppy guerilla math often telling you otherwise.

Combos are just used to weigh the equities, and if there are 12 combos of nuts which you have 10% equity against and 6 combos of FDs which you have like 60% equity against, your overall equity is only like 25%.

In the heat of the moment it's easy to get into lazy "he either has it or he doesn't, 50/50" kind of thinking where you don't accurately weigh the various equities properly.

Play with pokerstove and see how much putting draws into ranges actually affects your equity -- your gut feel for equities while in play will thank you.

aaaa... what is DUCY?

Originally Posted by Razvan729

aaaa... what is DUCY?

"Do you see why?"

Btw don't miss my ninja edit in the post above yours.

got it ty.


i run your range in pokerstove , but instead of AQs for me, i put AA and then KK. pokerstove said i am 51%. would this , me being on KK+, mean that i can call here?

in theory i guess yes, but in practice, since he rarely does this AQso or KQso, it is still a fold, right? i am asking because just by numbers calling seems right with KK+, but practice proved me that to rare they do it TPTK or TP2K, so even if i fold with nuts sometimes, long run folding here saves me money. right?

this is a snap beluga fold