AQ top pair improves to vulnerable Full House on river w/ very wet board ($5NL FR)

[rowhousepd]

There are two things I was worried about here: along the way (F and T) I was worried about a possible flush. If not I figured he either had an Ace too or maybe a medium-high pocket pair. (I wasn't worried that he made trips holding a 2). Then when I get my lucky third Ace to complete a boat, I might have either crushed his nut flush or was beaten by a better full. Arrrrgh.

The OOP villain is pretty much a TAG: 17/9/2.9. Only reads are that he neither bluffs at a river nor bets it light, and he's played passively on the draws I've seen him on. Thoughts?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
SB ($1.55)
BB ($3.43)
UTG ($1.92)
UTG+1 ($4.93)
UTG+2 ($5)
MP1 ($7.10)
Hero ($5)
BTN ($4.66)

Dealt to Hero A Q

fold, fold, UTG+2 raises to $0.17, fold, Hero calls $0.17, fold, SB calls $0.15, fold

FLOP ($0.56) 2 2 A

SB checks, UTG+2 bets $0.30, Hero raises to $1.05, SB folds, UTG+2 calls $0.75

TURN ($2.66) 2 2 A K

UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $0.95, UTG+2 calls $0.95

RIVER ($4.56) 2 2 A K A

UTG+2 bets $2.83 (AI)
Hero....?

[daven]

put villain on a range
count combos that beat you/lose to you/split
calculate % of time you need to be good
compare with % of time you are good vs villain's range

report back

[StarGrinder]

lolz snap call. It's extremely hard to fold coolers, and I'd NEVER do it at NL5 and especially not for 100bb.

[rowhousepd]

Love the feedbakc guys, but I have to admit I'm a little to much of a newbie to get some of the mathy stuff here. (I'm learning tho.)

No one really mentioend the turn. In hindsight, I was wondering if I should have made a heftier raise on the turn, but I definitely didn't want to check. Here's why:

If we wasn't on a flush draw, he might have folded a trips (if he had a 2) or a weaker ace or KK or even AK which was definitely in his range. If he made his flush (or was drawing) on the turn, it couldn't be the nut flush since I had the Qh, so it might have given him some pause, especially w/ the board already paired. Also, since I in fact had the nut flush draw I wanted to build the pot if I hit it. Does that sound like good reasoning? Was I just spewing here, or should I have just checked the turn?

(Ugg, ok, I know, newbie thinking and lacking in analysis of the the combos, but my brain doesn't work that quickly at the tables ... yet.)

[Icanhastreebet]

Love the feedbakc guys, but I have to admit I'm a little to much of a newbie to get some of the mathy stuff here. (I'm learning tho.)

No one really mentioend the turn. In hindsight, I was wondering if I should have made a heftier raise on the turn, but I definitely didn't want to check. Here's why:

If we wasn't on a flush draw, he might have folded a trips (if he had a 2) or a weaker ace or KK or even AK which was definitely in his range. If he made his flush (or was drawing) on the turn, it couldn't be the nut flush since I had the Qh, so it might have given him some pause, especially w/ the board already paired. Also, since I in fact had the nut flush draw I wanted to build the pot if I hit it. Does that sound like good reasoning? Was I just spewing here, or should I have just checked the turn?

(Ugg, ok, I know, newbie thinking and lacking in analysis of the the combos, but my brain doesn't work that quickly at the tables ... yet.)

Turn is definately a check also, for the reasons you outlined. The reasons for betting are good but the reasons to check outweigh them in this case. Good job.

[EasyPoker]

Call ffs

[Shotglass]

WTF? Insta-call.

[philly and the phanatics]

what are you even scared of quad 2;s????? ez call

[couriermike]

8 combos beat you. you chop with many combos and are ahead of few/many, depending on how optimistic villain is, and you're getting roughly 3:1. call.

[Viscaro]

I count 4 combos that beat him (2c2d, AcKc, AcKd, AcKs) where did you get 8 or am I missing something?
Snapperjack call either way. I'm guessing you called and he had AK. Unlucky but never ever ever fold in this spot.

[couriermike]

I count 4 combos that beat him (2c2d, AcKc, AcKd, AcKs) where did you get 8 or am I missing something?

you're right, my bad

[gotigers1234]

I'm guessing you called and he had AK. Unlucky but never ever ever fold in this spot.

If he has Ak dude would still split right? did you mean KK?

[StarGrinder]

If he has Ak dude would still split right? did you mean KK?

RIVER ($4.56) 2 2 A K A

[Carroters]

RIVER ($4.56) 2 2 A K A

LOL WTF PWNED.

[daven]

If he has Ak dude would still split right? did you mean KK?

which is better: AAAKK or AAA22 ?

[Shotglass]

If he has Ak dude would still split right? did you mean KK?

Wow!

[Icanhastreebet]

just a quick point to make,
we're not risking 2.83 to win 7.39. We're risking 2.83 to win 2.28(2$ after rake).

With that said, lets assume villains range for shoving river is 22,AK,AQ,AJ

22=1combo
AK=3combos
AQ=3combos
AJ=4combos

We lose 2.83 4/11 times. We win 2$ 7/11 times.
-1.03 + 1.27 = .24cents profit on average.

A lot of you guys said this was a snap. I don't know why you'd consider this a snap. Would you consider this a snap at 3.50? I'm assuming almost ALL of you would. However @ 3.50 this becomes a fold.(It becomes a fold before this because of rake etc but I was too lazy to account for that).

Another quick point, if this villain is positionally aware AT ALL. This becomes a fold just because he's less likely to open all 16 combos of AJ because he's a 17/9. He also doesn't have 22 probably but this won't change much when you take out 4 of the combos you are chopping with. It's very likely this could be the case here thus making this a fold. I know it's cool to post "snap" or omg what's the decision here but a lot of you would actually be better off putting a thought or two into a "simple" spot like this because I can almost guarantee if the OP mentioned villain was positionally aware or if our stacks were even 4$ deep you'd all still say snap.

That said, in spots like this where you know you are chopping or losing you have to be careful to not miscalculate your pot odds. Your pot odds here are <1;1 but if you could only win or lose they would be nearly 3;1. That's pretty significant.

Oh and for people who think villain sometimes has worst. He absolutely NEVER, EVER, EVER has worst. EVER

[Viscaro]

just a quick point to make,
we're not risking 2.83 to win 7.39. We're risking 2.83 to win 2.28(2$ after rake).

Thats a very good point, alot of the time we're playing for half of the pot and we have never seen the villain bluff or bet the river light. Given the action he is 99.999%* to be beating or chopping us.




*The other 0.001% hes put you on a flush, can't beat it and tries to scare you off with his spew. I refuse to believe anyone can resist the alure of spew better than that.

[daven]

Oh and for people who think villain sometimes has worst. He absolutely NEVER, EVER, EVER has worst. EVER

from the guy who wanted me to call stacks without the ace on AAA99
pretty much agree though, i'd say he has 5-10% retard absolute maximum in this spot.

[Icanhastreebet]

lol wasn't such a "quickpoint" but I felt it had to be explained.

[philly and the phanatics]

fwiw i think he has at least 4 more Ax combos which sway this even more in the way of calling...but you are right yaawn SNAP-doing anything is wrong especially in poker when a small wrinkle could drastically change what course of action to take.

[kickass]

dont be mean!
he had AK and you lost otherwise you never post with those reads. unless he had 2s then lol thats funny.

[spoonitnow]

Call flop. As played, river looks foldy.

[Icanhastreebet]

Flop raise is also quite the disaster here mostly for reasons I outlined earlier about villains pre-flop range.

[Carroters]

Relative vs Absolute hand strength. LOL FULL HOUSE CANT EVER BE A FOLD.