Another one of those 'can I lay down a monster?' - threads.

[oskar]

We already discussed this on IRC, but I think the hand is pretty interesting. His bet on the turn is very peculiar - could be a block bet. Could be an "omg I hav da flush!!" bet, could be a float gone wrong.

Reads on the villain: Only played a couple of orbits with him. He likes to limp/call a lot. Hasn't been involved in a lot of showdowns. I only remember one hand when he complete/called a raise from the sb - flop came 677, and he open shoved for 100bb 4-way in a 16bb pot. So he's retarded. But no other reads.

$0.1/$0.2 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Philidinho ($14.94)
UTG+1 Hero ($24.60)
MP1 maxxAUT ($27.11)
MP2 el.asimo ($50.90)
MP3 steff2 ($21.02)
CO may_chet ($14.58)
BTN narcis885 ($6.12)
SB jokersabe ($1.80)
BB zokerhelmi ($15.29)

Pre-flop: ($0.30, 9 players) Hero is UTG+1
Philidinho calls $0.20, Hero raises to $1.20, 7 folds, Philidinho calls $1

Flop: ($2.70, 2 players)
Philidinho checks, Hero bets $2.02, Philidinho calls $2.02

Turn: ($6.74, 2 players)
Philidinho bets $3.37, Hero calls $3.37

River: ($13.48, 2 players)
Philidinho goes all-in $8.35 Hero??


On th turn I think he has hit a flush here a lot, some of it is KJ.
I can't figure out why people do this. If I have top pair, I'm going to bet again, and I'm going to bet more. So why would he donk into me? Maybe he has AK, is now afraid of a flushdraw and knows nothing about pot odds.
On the river I think his range is more than 50% flush. But I think 2-pair and a smaller set are definitely an option. It's pretty close in my mind.

[sil693]

Im pretty sure I said this in IRC, but if you only call the turn because you think you're behind when the club hits, and you're just hoping to fill up on the river - then you should fold this river.

[oskar]

You did - but that's just one reason. I cannot fold the turn and a raise makes weaker hands fold. Keeping weaker hands in > protect betting against A
On the turn a call is the only thing that makes sense to me. Of course I'm hoping to fill up, because a rather big part of his range is a flush here, but I don't really know how big. On the river, if he has a flush 60% of the time, and a weaker hand 40% - I have to call.
I don't know if that's the case though. I don't know how much of it could be KJ, QK, QJ (Qx not much obviously) AK, 33, JJ.
Problem is also that I loose against AT, 9T, KK (again: very small part)

[pgil]

if he's retarded shove the turn and watch him happily call with some random TP/2pr hand. he's not likely to be laying down anything with showdown value, and most of his hands are not flushes/straights. even if they are, you have lots of outs to make up for the times that he is ahead on the turn, which I don't think is that often.

[badgers]

no.

he can always have 33 so I wouldn't fold
in fact I'd shove the turn because he has less than pot left so it's an easy ldo stack off