Another IMPORTANT Pocket Pair Question

I assume most people typically play a small to medium PP in a raised pot 3 to 4X the bb( hoping for a big payout on trips). Lets say .25 sb -.50 bb Pot gets raised to $2- I'm on the button with 44(I'm the only caller), flops comes 257 rainbow. Now here's the Question I have. At what amount bet by raiser would you figure he missed his hand in order to make a call or raise. I typically figure he missed the flop if he would throw out a bet of less than the pot. What would you generally do on a half pot bet by the raiser. No reads yet. I know the no set no bet rule. But I would really like to be able to make this stragety be profitable by coming over the top on a small bet by raiser. I suppose a real good player might throw out a small bet if he hit his hand to try and induce a raise and the slam him, but not typically . Thanks in advance


Eat the Flesh

i think flop bet size does not correlate very well to hand strength without a read. pursuing this will be more about exploiting tight players who can predictably have higher cards/pockets when they raise preflop, and will fold the high cards to a reraise or turn bet, than with gauging bet size.

It's different for everyone.

Originally Posted by WildBobAA

It's different for everyone.

Yep. You need to know how often opp will fire a continuation bet, and sometimes how large of one depending on their hand strength.

Originally Posted by AHiltz

Originally Posted by WildBobAA

It's different for everyone.

Yep. You need to know how often opp will fire a continuation bet, and sometimes how large of one depending on their hand strength.

Also, you need to know how the villain will react to a raise if you choose to put one in. Is he going to call you and represent the next broadway that drops? Is he going to 3-bet you on the flop repping an overpair when he has only overcards to give you a tough decision?

Against players who are honest when raised, I play more cards and sometimes take them further without improvement searching for soft spots.

In the words of the mighty fnord!

Dangerous thought:

What if you always called a PFR for 5% of your stack with TT-22, but if you missed your set, flipped 2 coins and raised the c-bet if they both landed heads?

So to answer
the math on the coin flipping is 33% i think, my math sucks so would and could you continue the post flop play regardless of seeing an Axx flop without a set?

the odds of 2 out of 2 coins landing heads is 25%...
1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4 or %25

I usually only attempt playing pots like this in position.

A lot of players give up on the turn if they get a call on the flop. You can usually win it for a 3/4 pot bet there.

I find a lot of guys will call a flop raise with missed AK looking to spike a turn, but that's also how they often play an overpair.

I agree, however, that bet size has no correlation to a hit or miss. My bet size on a missed AK has to do more with flop texture and type of opponent. Of course, so does it when I have an overpair.

A lot of guys pot every street with an overpair, though; that's something to keep in mind.

There is a fundamental problem w/ the logic here that hurts a lot of peoples games. Here is the question. Why did you call his bet in the first place? You called his bet hoping to his trips so that he would pay you off. So you must have been thinking that he would pay you off if he hit his trips. Now that you didn't hit trips your thinking, maybe I can still get this pot. But that goes against your original plan that he would pay you off if you hit your trips. A very smart man once said, in any given situation, you should be raising for value or bluffing, but never doing both. If you had hit your trips would you have reraised him or opened up the pot? If the answer is yes, than how does it make sense to do that now in order to steal the pot?

With all that being said, there are plenty of situations where I would still try to take down this pot. But I think you need to think about the above questions before you do this. If you are so sure that he will pay off your trips, why do you think he will fold to a raise now?

you dont need trips to play an opponents cards.
As a further related note you DO want opp all in or playing big pots with top pair in a raised pot.

hence, there are more reasons to raise the c-bet at random for no reason even if an ace hits the flop rathr than fold more often.

Of course you dont need trips to play an opponents cards, but personally, I like to bluff when I still have some outs. The thing about small pocket pairs is that when they dont hit, you have virtually no outs. I personally would save this move for when I have more than 2 outs. Still, I would raise here occasionally, but more often that not I fold the small pp after a miss. Remember, you were playing it originally because you hoped it would hit and you thought he would pay you off.

Originally Posted by dpe8598

Of course you dont need trips to play an opponents cards, but personally, I like to bluff when I still have some outs. The thing about small pocket pairs is that when they dont hit, you have virtually no outs. I personally would save this move for when I have more than 2 outs. Still, I would raise here occasionally, but more often that not I fold the small pp after a miss. Remember, you were playing it originally because you hoped it would hit and you thought he would pay you off.

he wont pay you off if the only time you call/raise his flop bet is with a set. You have to encourage opps to overplay top pair or else they wont ever take too far unless you can find opps who are naturally that bad.
Tight is right, and bluffing is effective only in situational circumstances, but only calling/betting with a hand wont get you paid.

He doesnt know I have 44! Therefore, there are other times when I call w/ other hands and raise w/ a draw. Therefore, he is not getting a read on my call and fold w/ the low PP. It all looks the same to him. Again, there are times where I make a move here, but I think in order to mix it up, I like to make moves less w/ these hands and more w/ drawing hands. Even if I only have 5 outs, thats still a lot better than 2.

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

Originally Posted by dpe8598

Of course you dont need trips to play an opponents cards, but personally, I like to bluff when I still have some outs. The thing about small pocket pairs is that when they dont hit, you have virtually no outs. I personally would save this move for when I have more than 2 outs. Still, I would raise here occasionally, but more often that not I fold the small pp after a miss. Remember, you were playing it originally because you hoped it would hit and you thought he would pay you off.

he wont pay you off if the only time you call/raise his flop bet is with a set. You have to encourage opps to overplay top pair or else they wont ever take too far unless you can find opps who are naturally that bad.
Tight is right, and bluffing is effective only in situational circumstances, but only calling/betting with a hand wont get you paid.

when you say only calling betting with a hand won't get you paid you couldn't be more wrong. think about what you are saying. I like to make moves very often but only calling/betting with a hand will make you plenty of money. How many times do you think the average player is able to fold AA/KK/QQ/JJ on a flop of 472 rainbow to a reraise. Even if you are the tightest player at the table most players can not and will not lay this hand down.