Am I a Loser?

How many hands would you guys say it takes before you can decide if you're a winning player as opposed to running hot?

I've got 36K hands in PT in the four months I've been playing and I'm ahead roughly 1,000 playing .5/1 NL tables.

Can I safely say that I play to a profit at that limit in the long run?

Also, what does a good player expect to make an hour four-tabling .5/1 NL?

Well, that's 2.777... BB/100 hands. I think that's on the low side for NL isn't it?

Depends on your variance. What is it, BTW?

Originally Posted by sejmeister

Also, what does a good player expect to make an hour four-tabling .5/1 NL?

Assuming 60 hands an hour (for no good reason): $6 per hour.

5BB/100 hands = $10 / 100 hands -> $6 / 60 hands.

- Jeffrey

2.7 BB/100 is fine for NL. You should move up stakes.

Jeff, I think your math's off?

Fourtabling, you should get at least 40 hands per hour, PER TABLE, so 160/hr. And 5BB at .5/1 is $5/100
160/100 1.6

1.6 X 5 = $8/hr
Assuming one can play four 5BB/100 NL games at once.

3 is probably more reliable
1.6 X 3 = $4.80/hr

Originally Posted by RiverMonkey

Well, that's 2.777... BB/100 hands. I think that's on the low side for NL isn't it?

Since this is .5/1 NL, the Big Blind is $1.

But, the BB/100 stat is calculated using Big Bets, (for NL, 2x the big blind), or $2. So, wouldn't it be 1.4BB/100?

Originally Posted by LeFou

2.7 BB/100 is fine for NL. You should move up stakes.

Jeff, I think your math's off?

Fourtabling, you should get at least 40 hands per hour, PER TABLE, so 160/hr. And 5BB at .5/1 is $5/100
160/100 1.6

1.6 X 5 = $8/hr
Assuming one can play four 5BB/100 NL games at once.

3 is probably more reliable
1.6 X 3 = $4.80/hr

You're right, my math was off in that I only considered one table that plays 60 hands per hour. Forgot to factor in the multi-table aspect.

Aren't your calculations off by the fact that in NL, BB/100 is defined as 2xbig blind / 100? 5BB/100 does equal $10 according to the way BB/100 is defined in PokerTracker, which is what the stats he quotes refer to. So my estimate of a 60 hand/hour table, taken at four tables, yields $24/hour. Drop to a 40 hand/hour table and you're at $16/hour.

Originally Posted by JeffreyGB

So yeah...this is underperforming by most accounts in NL. I'd say you [original poster] should start looking for leaks in your game to see where you're dropping at.

I should note here too that while you're not making as much as you could be, or as much as "good" players are, you're still turning a profit. That's a good thing and you're still a winning player. If you have Poker Tracker, start looking at how various hands you play pay out relative to what you'd expect. Then adjust your play for those results.

Jeff, is that avatar you?

Originally Posted by Waggho

Jeff, is that avatar you?

I far prefer to be referred to by my full name (Jeffrey).

That said, yes, it is.

- Jeffrey

Originally Posted by rob6597

Originally Posted by RiverMonkey

Well, that's 2.777... BB/100 hands. I think that's on the low side for NL isn't it?

Since this is .5/1 NL, the Big Blind is $1.

But, the BB/100 stat is calculated using Big Bets, (for NL, 2x the big blind), or $2. So, wouldn't it be 1.4BB/100?

Ok, I play limit, so I had assumed that since there is no "big bet" for NL you use the big blind amount for BB/100.

Now that I actually think about it, it makes complete sense to use 2xbig-blind amount to remain consistent between LHE, and NL.

I stand corrected.

i hate math