All of a sudden losing money at $100 NL

I have built my bankroll from $50 to $4,000 in a year just playing MTT's and NL Ring. I have always stuck to the high end (conservative) end of bankroll rules. Didnt move up to $100 NL until I had 3k and was consistently killing 50NL.

I went from 3k to 4k fast playing 100NL. Some ups and downs but mostly up. Cashed out 1k to do but some stuff and go on a little trip. Built it back to 3400. Ok so from that point, it seems I started playing break even only poker. For 3 months I had no significant change in bankroll. I would lose some, gain some. then I started losing in ring game but a 4th place finish on Pacific got $400 back in the roll and I was back to about 3200. Now in the last few days, I have lost another 400 playing 100NL. So I really have lost $800 playing 100nl, with my one good MTT showing covering half the losses.

I got Poker Tracker and loaded up a bunch of hand histories and have it running while I played this weekend. What I am seeing is that my wins seem to be small amounts and my losses seem to be real big. That seems to be the trend. One loss was my KK losing to QQ on the river ($-120), which I have no problem with. I am mainly worried about the trend of small wins to big losses. Is there anything in general that this indicates about my play?

i will post some HH's too, but i am hoping for some insight into this one thing I see about my stats. Thanks.

win small, lose big sounds like you're playing tight, so you don't get action, except when someone flops big against your over pair or top two or something and you can't get away. I guess the opposite would be you're LAGG, people are sensing it and calling all three barrels when ahead, and folding the flop when behind. But you should be winning some pots that way too, so I lean to the first one.

Having said that, if you never lost 8 buyins, why would you need a roll bigger than 8 buyins?

Originally Posted by drmcboy

Having said that, if you never lost 8 buyins, why would you need a roll bigger than 8 buyins?

Buffer for when you just take bad beats.

Originally Posted by drmcboy

Having said that, if you never lost 8 buyins, why would you need a roll bigger than 8 buyins?

Buffer for when you just take bad beats.

Originally Posted by drmcboy

win small, lose big sounds like you're playing tight, so you don't get action, except when someone flops big against your over pair or top two or something and you can't get away.

That sounds like it. Here are some random thougths:

If you play tight and predictable people can play off that. Mix it up a little. You probably have a good foundation based on your past success, but you have to expand on your game all the time. Don't be mechanical...unless you are being mechanical with and without a real hand. If you run into regulars they may have some reads on you. Another thing to consider is controlling pot sizes when you "might" have the best hand.

You say you've been playing a year, but how long have you been playing 100? A 400 dollar downswing at 100 is not that much. It sux, but if you stay at this for a year or more you will see lots of those. I think that since you are making money, you are probably a decent player, and you probably know what your doing wrong. Most half decent players do. Your probably doing the opposite of what you should be, calling down w/ moderately good hands and slowing up killer hands. Stay at this and DONT LOSE CONFIDENCE.

Originally Posted by drmcboy

Having said that, if you never lost 8 buyins, why would you need a roll bigger than 8 buyins?

?? serious?

I am posting a few HH's now. Thanks for some of the advice. My PT stats after 2k hands say I am tight preflop and very aggressive post flop.

My vp$ip is 20.35%, and pfr% is 4.35%.

My auto-rate is Ultra aggressive according to the rules I loaded in from the Bet the Pot site, but I think that has to do with post flop play mostly.

Some of my losses are just bad beats, so whatever. But I am interested in getting better and winning more consistently, so any more advice would be great.

I second on changing gears;you need to periodically raise with suited connectors or smaller PP out of position in order to mix up people's reads on you.

Don't forget to blind steal the tight passives with any decent Ace or King in LP as well;you need to incorporate that in your game.

two options

sit with less than a full buy in and destroy ur table image.
play more hands a little more aggressivly so ppl want to play with you. A few small deliberate mistakes or bad showdowns can encourage other sto play you with less.

My vp$ip is 20.35%, and pfr% is 4.35%.

I would have to assume you aren't raising preflop nearly enough.

According to your pfr percentage, you are only raising the top four percent which roughly means:

AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, and AQ.

This is hugely telling, and any aware player isn't going to be in the pot when you raising unless he has a stacking hand like a pair, or a dominating hand like QQ+, AK.

I am only marginally winning at 100nl, so take this for what its worth. I play fewer hands than you do but I raise almost twice as many.

Off the top of my head, my vpip is 14.5% and my pfr is about 7.5%.

Try raising more weak hands in position like JTs, 77-TT, ATs, QJs, the occasional 45s. Also try raising more hands overall. Expand your overall raising range to include AQ, KQ and AJ in MP or later, TT, and etc.

Hope that helps.

Originally Posted by Renton

Off the top of my head, my vpip is 14.5% and my pfr is about 7.5%.

I was at around 22/12 this morning *cackle*. Then again I dropped 2 buy-ins. For a nice stretch of that I had a W$@SD of 0%. Just kept running into stuff, missing, couldn't win a flip or close one, river folds, etc. Bleh!

Renton:

Thanks. I noticed you have been posting your adventures in 100 nl lately on here and I have been reading those. I was murdering this level for a while, but suddenly just got cold. I think some of it is confidence, and some of it is that my play seems off a little. Some bad decisions here and there have cost me big.

I will be working on raising more pre-flop when I decide to get in a hand. I really have no problem doing that with some of those hands in position. I'll see how it goes.

What is the accepted norm for PFR%? in poker tracker for ABC type player?

I am new to pokertracker, so one thing I have been wondering is what are the baseline numbers that an ABC player would have so that I can figure out where on that median I fall.

of course, I advocate 8 buyins under 400NL after that you need 12 for sure.

stop, turn brain on, read post again.

Originally Posted by MNMP2

What is the accepted norm for PFR%? in poker tracker for ABC type player?

I don't really know but here are my rough parameters for 10 max:

EP: KK, QQ, AK, AQ, AA 90% of the time, TT-JJ 30% of the time, other pair and big suited connectors on occasion.

MP: Above, plus AJ, KQ, TT, JJ

LP: Above, plus most of the time I will raise AT+, A6s+, KJ+, QJ, and medium suited connectors probably half the time.

Blinds: Probably about the same as EP with a few logical exceptions as I see fit.

Whenever I hit a downswing, I drop down limits for a while, sometimes you just a need a little more confidence.

MNMP2 I think you might be using the the 6max autorate rules ( I assume you play full ring?). I say this becuase I've dled a couple of Full ring autorate rules from BetThePot and 2plus2 and neither have Ultra_Aggressor as a category. Only the 6max rules I have have that category.

Murdoc,

Geeze, maybe thats part of my problem. I gotta check that out. Where are the best 10max rules out there for me to download? You have a link to a good set for me?

OK, I checked it and it is for full ring, so I'm ok. It says right at the top of the page that it is for NL, Full ring.

I like these ratings, so I am glad I dont have to change them - wheww!

There are categories like show down muppet, xtra-loose, ultra aggressive, etcetera.

I think the guy at bet the pot said he used these rules as a starting point to build his 6max rules, so thats probably where the confusion and similarity comes from.

i'd say ABC poker looks like pfr is 3 - 7%, and vpip is 15 - 25 %>

I think with your VPIP around 20% and PFR around 5% you should definitely be raising more (of course only under the right conditions).

Unless the table textures/reads on opponents say differently, try occasionally raising with SC's in position or raising middle/small pairs in position after a few limpers.

Originally Posted by MNMP2

I am posting a few HH's now. Thanks for some of the advice. My PT stats after 2k hands say I am tight preflop and very aggressive post flop.

My vp$ip is 20.35%, and pfr% is 4.35%.

My auto-rate is Ultra aggressive according to the rules I loaded in from the Bet the Pot site, but I think that has to do with post flop play mostly.

Some of my losses are just bad beats, so whatever. But I am interested in getting better and winning more consistently, so any more advice would be great.

You're playing plenty of hands, but your preflop may still need work. You're raising less than 25% of the hands you play. I can tell you right now that you don't make position raises, you aren't punishing limpers, and your big hands are easy to read. I imagine you are also open limping. At less than 5% pfr, I know that when you raise you have a big pkt pair, AK, and maybe AQ. Therefore, I'm only going to call you with a hand that has huge implied odds like a low pkt pair, or suited connectors.

When you play very aggressive post flop, but don't raise enough preflop, I know instantly when you are ahead of me, without costing me a dime. Likewise, you don't know where you stand until you've invested too much. When I hit my set, you are probably paying me off too much with an overpair.

piratepeaty:

This is some very clear and easily understood advice. I just read that you are murdering 100NL and a great player. So I appreciate your input here, and it has given me a few things to start working on to mix up my game a little. I do not want to be predictable in my play, and I want to make $$ playing too.

So what do you say we be friends?!

Also, would you recommend that I work on these points at 100nl, or should I jump down to 50nl for a few sessions to get used to the style change a little?

Originally Posted by MNMP2

I have built my bankroll from $50 to $4,000 in a year just playing MTT's and NL Ring. I have always stuck to the high end (conservative) end of bankroll rules. Didnt move up to $100 NL until I had 3k and was consistently killing 50NL.

I went from 3k to 4k fast playing 100NL. Some ups and downs but mostly up. Cashed out 1k to do but some stuff and go on a little trip. Built it back to 3400. Ok so from that point, it seems I started playing break even only poker. For 3 months I had no significant change in bankroll. I would lose some, gain some. then I started losing in ring game but a 4th place finish on Pacific got $400 back in the roll and I was back to about 3200. Now in the last few days, I have lost another 400 playing 100NL. So I really have lost $800 playing 100nl, with my one good MTT showing covering half the losses.

I got Poker Tracker and loaded up a bunch of hand histories and have it running while I played this weekend. What I am seeing is that my wins seem to be small amounts and my losses seem to be real big. That seems to be the trend. One loss was my KK losing to QQ on the river ($-120), which I have no problem with. I am mainly worried about the trend of small wins to big losses. Is there anything in general that this indicates about my play?

i will post some HH's too, but i am hoping for some insight into this one thing I see about my stats. Thanks.

It happens. I moved up to $400 at about $20k (it's not so much i need 50 buyins but I didn't think I had the skill. I started winning a bit, but then I broke even for like a month when I had no time (uni, dance teaching, going away on trips, etc.) and then I started to dip and dropped 3 buy-ins. I know it's only 3 but i'm not used to losing $1200. I tried moving down to 200, up for a bit, I was just so restless. Trying to chase my losses. I took a break for a while 'cos I was so busy anyway.

Then empire poker reload came up and I spent it lagging the NL50 tables (there weren't any higher stakes). I won like 10 buy ins over 2000 hands (50BB/100? LOL), even with some bad beats (and some suckouts I admit) cleared my bonus and went back to 200NL. And now I'm crushing it again. At anything >100NL you really need to have the confidence in your ability and to be playing your "A" game.

Try something to jolt yourself out of your slumber. Don't move up and down one level. Move to 25NL. Or play 6 max instead of ring or vice versa. Or do a bit of fixed limit or SNGs if you're familiar with it. Whatever; if you're in a rut don't just stay there.