AKs deep HU

Hey all, haven't posted in a while. This hand has been bugging me though so I'd like some outside opinions on it

Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 2 Players

Hero (BB): $12.50 (250 bb)
SB: $12.73 (254.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K A
SB raises to $0.20, Hero raises to $0.55, SB calls $0.35

Flop: ($1.10) 3 A 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.85, SB calls $0.85

Turn: ($2.80) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.25, SB raises to $11.33 and is all-in, Hero ??

Villain is 55/38, 22% 3bet, 3/6 fold to 3bet, 0/4 fold to CB, 3.0 aggro factor (these stats are like 95% from full table 6max) over 100ish hands

So basically my question here is does he ever ship any Ax I beat here or is it always 2pr, sets, and straights that I see when I call here? (I have a feeling I'm crushed most of the time but like I said, it's bugging me)

Without more info my default is to fold. Even though he is an aggro monkey, until I have seen him bluff in this kind of spot or do that with a naked ace, I fold.

edit: OOP I'd 3b a little bigger preflop, like $0.70

Originally Posted by daviddem

Without more info my default is to fold. Even though he is an aggro monkey, until I have seen him bluff in this kind of spot or do that with a naked ace, I fold.

edit: OOP I'd 3b a little bigger preflop, like $0.70

Can someone explain this to me please as I have seen it a few times now and can't work out why you want to make a pot bigger when you're OOP?

Shallower stacks reduces the edge of being IP because it's easier to get the money in over fewer streets and there's less room for bluffing etc. Plus you can make bigger value bets which are the same relative size of the pot which is always good

Another way of seeing it is that you make him pay a higher price for you having to play the hand OOP postflop, because your future potential profit will inherently be less when you play OOP compared to IP.

So make him pay now for your lesser future profits.

Ah right OK, thank you both. Is this too complicated for 5NL, I feel if I did this people would see it as a big 3bet, repping strength not because I am OOP, and it would get lots of folds causing me to possibly lose some value when I do actually have a big hand?

You adjust your 3b size according to your position, not according to your hand strength, so how are they supposed to tell if you have a big hand or not?

Originally Posted by daviddem

You adjust your 3b size according to your position, not according to your hand strength, so how are they supposed to tell if you have a big hand or not?

That's exactly what I am saying. To 95% of 2NL players, a big raise means a big hand, I was wondering if 5NL had the same perception.

Originally Posted by daviddem

You adjust your 3b size according to your position, not according to your hand strength, so how are they supposed to tell if you have a big hand or not?

This.

Also you adjust your preflop 3 betting ranges according to villains pre flop tendencies, if he's calling a lot of 3bets you should look to exploit this by 3betting for value only and rarely bluffing, but widening your value range.

If he tends to fold to a lot of 3bets i.e only continues to a 3bet with a very narrow and strong range, you should look to exploit this by 3 bet bluffing more.

Originally Posted by daviddem

You adjust your 3b size according to your position,

Same as opening raises, 6max.
Usually, but not always , my open raises.

UTG 4xbb
MP 3xBB
CO/BTN 2.5 x bb

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

That's exactly what I am saying. To 95% of 2NL players, a big raise means a big hand, I was wondering if 5NL had the same perception.

Do you want to be in the 5%?

Wow, it seems I have been misunderstood #facepalm

It's basically a flip a coin decision, call or fold doesnt matter.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

Wow, it seems I have been misunderstood #facepalm

No, i know what you are trying to say. Let's say we are playing 5NL, villain opens for 3bb to $0.15, the standard 3bet size would be 9bb to $0.45 and you think if you 3bet larger than 9bb villain will think you have a stronger range than normal like AA,KK and fold nearly all the time.

Lets say you've been playing with a thinking opponent for an hour or so and you have been 3betting a fair bit to the standard $0.45 IP and OOP. Then out of nowhere you start 3betting larger of course some villains will notice this and perhaps put you on a stronger range than normal and fold more.

But if you have been playing for an hour or so and been 3betting the standard amount IP and slightly more OOP then there has been no change in your standard 3 bet sizing for these spots and villain will have no reason to alter his perception of your range, i.e think it's stronger or weaker than normal.

Originally Posted by seven-deuce

No, i know what you are trying to say. Let's say we are playing 5NL, villain opens for 3bb to $0.15, the standard 3bet size would be 9bb to $0.45 and you think if you 3bet larger than 9bb villain will think you have a stronger range than normal like AA,KK and fold nearly all the time.

Lets say you've been playing with a thinking opponent for an hour or so and you have been 3betting a fair bit to the standard $0.45 IP and OOP. Then out of nowhere you start 3betting larger of course some villains will notice this and perhaps put you on a stronger range than normal and fold more.

But if you have been playing for an hour or so and been 3betting the standard amount IP and slightly more OOP then there has been no change in your standard 3 bet sizing for these spots and villain will have no reason to alter his perception of your range, i.e think it's stronger or weaker than normal.

YES! Thank you, that's much clearer now.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

...To 95% of 2NL players, a big raise means a big hand...

or, Coby, as the Good Book puts it:

"When I played 2NL, I spoke 2NL, I understood 2NL, I thought 2NL: but when I moved up, I put away 2NL things."

Praise be.

Some Poker Royalty ITT

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

or, Coby, as the Good Book puts it:

"When I played 2NL, I spoke 2NL, I understood 2NL, I thought 2NL: but when I moved up, I put away 2NL things."

Praise be.

Some Poker Royalty ITT

I like.

I don't think most players at NL5 qualify as 'thinking' players (and almost certainly not this particular villain so I do agree with sizing it bigger pre. Can probably get a little bigger on flop and turn vs. this player too I guess.

But as to the decision in question, I'm having trouble grasping exactly why it's a flip-a-coin decision. I guess we don't expect this players stats to change a WHOLE lot as sample size increases. Maybe it's because bad players play bad and bad players do stupid/unpredictable things at stupid/unpredictable times?

i fold. can't see many micro villain's doing this for value with worse, or as a bluff. this turn card is a complete brick for everything except 54s (which is in his range)

I think this is really close vs aggro monkey fish and I'm leaning towards call. Think he has just about enough pair+ turned fd and AJ AQ etc that it's probably fine, but yeah kinda close.

There's another possibility here, especially since it's head's up. Harrington mentioned in Harrington on Cash Games that hand values equalize as you become deeper stacked. As you approach 300BB stacks, 3-6s can be more dangerous than A-K, not because the 3-6s will win more often, but because it creates better hidden monsters, and because the bets don't get significant to stack size until the turn when you're this deep stacked.

Example: Villain bets with 3-6s, Hero raises with A-K, but the total pre-flop was only 4% of the villain's stack size. You've been playing tight, so the villain puts you on a tight raising range.

Using the table from: Poker Odds, Poker Probabilities, Common Flop Odds & Charts

The villain has a:

2.02% chance of flopping a hidden two pair.
5.224% chance of flopping a hidden 8 out straight draw.
10.944% chance of flopping a four to a flush draw. (not as hidden)

And this is just a near trash hand. If it doesn't hit, then he can throw it away on the flop for cheep, or continue to draw if you don't c-bet. It only cost him 4% of his stack to see the flop, but you're going to have a much harder time letting that AA or paired AK go without a fight if he does hit.

The point here is that when you're stacked that deep against most or all of the opponents at the table, then an opponent that looks too loose may just be opening up their range, hoping to take you stack when your AK nets TPTK and their near trash hand gets a hidden two pair or straight.

This could be an opponent using a knowledge of their implied and your reverse implied odds against you, which get huge as the stacks approach 300BB. In cases like this, TPTK is a very dangerous hand to be calling large raises with.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

That's exactly what I am saying. To 95% of 2NL players, a big raise means a big hand, I was wondering if 5NL had the same perception.

I think you're the one overthinking things. If a 2NL player sees a big raise and has a pocket pair they'll call to hit a set, suited connectors because they flop well v aces and Ax because they can always hit an ace. Low stakes players hate folding so you want to make your sizing as big as possible without making it too big for them to call.