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AKs deep HU

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  1. #1
    There's another possibility here, especially since it's head's up. Harrington mentioned in Harrington on Cash Games that hand values equalize as you become deeper stacked. As you approach 300BB stacks, 3-6s can be more dangerous than A-K, not because the 3-6s will win more often, but because it creates better hidden monsters, and because the bets don't get significant to stack size until the turn when you're this deep stacked.

    Example: Villain bets with 3-6s, Hero raises with A-K, but the total pre-flop was only 4% of the villain's stack size. You've been playing tight, so the villain puts you on a tight raising range.

    Using the table from: Poker Odds, Poker Probabilities, Common Flop Odds & Charts

    The villain has a:

    2.02% chance of flopping a hidden two pair.
    5.224% chance of flopping a hidden 8 out straight draw.
    10.944% chance of flopping a four to a flush draw. (not as hidden)

    And this is just a near trash hand. If it doesn't hit, then he can throw it away on the flop for cheep, or continue to draw if you don't c-bet. It only cost him 4% of his stack to see the flop, but you're going to have a much harder time letting that AA or paired AK go without a fight if he does hit.

    The point here is that when you're stacked that deep against most or all of the opponents at the table, then an opponent that looks too loose may just be opening up their range, hoping to take you stack when your AK nets TPTK and their near trash hand gets a hidden two pair or straight.

    This could be an opponent using a knowledge of their implied and your reverse implied odds against you, which get huge as the stacks approach 300BB. In cases like this, TPTK is a very dangerous hand to be calling large raises with.
    Last edited by davisrei; 01-15-2013 at 06:44 PM.

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