AKs 10nl

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

Hero (SB): $13.18 (131.8 bb)
BB: $7.37 (73.7 bb)
MP: $9.97 (99.7 bb)
CO: $4.13 (41.3 bb)
BTN: $12.07 (120.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A K
2 folds, BTN raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $1.20, BB folds, BTN calls $0.90

Flop: ($2.50) 9 A 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.40, BTN calls $1.40

Turn: ($5.30) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $3

Villain is 28/14. 28 A%. 4/7 fold to CB. 150 hands

B/F turn is bad? do we get value from worse aces or do we see everything we're ahead of fold? if B/F turn do it smaller maybe?

Even fish are scared of 4-flush boards, not to mention the fact that his continuing range on this flop has a bunch of diamonds in it.

Originally Posted by d0zer

Even fish are scared of 4-flush boards, not to mention the fact that his continuing range on this flop has a bunch of diamonds in it.

logic seems sound. bad turn bet

Good bet as a bluff but not for value. You can expect all sets and 2-pair type hands to fold here. Even hands like a T-high flush might fold if they expect you to bet out again on the river.

The bet looks good to me. What happens if you check? In that case I would expect villain to very often bet any two cards and force you to fold.

I think the bet is good as well, gets villain to fold a lot of his made hands. I do think you have to fold to a re-raise though and I'd probably give up on the river if villain calls.

Originally Posted by HarryHatless

Good bet as a bluff but not for value. You can expect all sets and 2-pair type hands to fold here. Even hands like a T-high flush might fold if they expect you to bet out again on the river.

The bet looks good to me. What happens if you check? In that case I would expect villain to very often bet any two cards and force you to fold.

I'm not folding a set here because if I hit a boat otr I expect to take the rest of his stack almost always. That makes the call +EV. And besides as we can see Hero also has some bluffs in his range.

And then if I had a set I swear to God that I would raise the flop.

edit: OK there is still QQ for a set

Then if you check and you think he has a lot of bluffs in his range when he bets, you can call. But as dozer said, everyone is scared of 4-flush boards (ie when you check you could also be slowplaying the nut flush).

But it's true you can get folds from AK and AQ, and maybe Jd and Td.

Just had a quick look at my own records.

Only got 9 hands where there were 4 to a flush on the turn. Eight of those hands saw somebody bet (other one went check,check) and seven of those times the other player involved in the hand folded.

Got 15 hands where the river put 4 to a flush on the board. Surprisingly to me only 7 of those saw a bet on the river (2 were all-ins on an earlier street, 6 were checked down). Of the 7 featuring a bet the other player folded 5 times. On one of the two occasions where player did not fold to a bet he was only facing a 5c min-bet into a 32c pot.

I appreciate this only a small sample size but it does seem to suggest that this is a good spot to bluff at the pot.

If anybody else has stats from their own records that they'd be willing to share I'd quite like to see them. Better evidence leads to better decisions.

I know that when people bet at 2nl (no idea if it applies) they have A of the suit so much. I've lost a few pots with K high when it goes to showdown.

Hey turn bluffers, plz give a range that's calling flop and folding turn, and compare that range to villains continuing range.

Originally Posted by d0zer

Hey turn bluffers, plz give a range that's calling flop and folding turn, and compare that range to villains continuing range.

I disagree as I think they fold a lot at micro stakes without A/K diamonds.

Ad is on the flop so there is nothing ahead of you folding here on the turn bet. If he's folding anything he will fold to a smaller bet

Originally Posted by ImSavy

I disagree as I think they fold a lot at micro stakes without A/K diamonds.

But your ahead of everything not AK of ddiamonds and I doubt he's folding a Jd. What other diamond calls this 3bet, and flop bet?

Originally Posted by ImSavy

I disagree as I think they fold a lot at micro stakes without A/K diamonds.

Not only is that a horribly incorrect generalization, you failed to provide any ranges.

D- for effort, F for content.

Originally Posted by d0zer

Not only is that a horribly incorrect generalization, you failed to provide any ranges.

D- for effort, F for content.

I don't think it is. I think he calls with a lot of TP, 2pair, sets, high Diamond cards.

However I think he folds a lot to another bet on the turn if he doesn't have A/K of diamonds.

I would attempt to back this up however I don't have the stats since having to remove HM2 and redo it. But I'm sure I lose a lot with K/Q/J high flushes on 4suited turns.

I do admit my first post was a bit half arsed though, as was this. Had a bit to drink.

Once again though, I am talking about 2nl I have no idea if this translates to higher stakes.

Fish that chase shitty 1-card flushes don't fold them when they hit. If villain isn't a fish, then he doesn't have shitty flushes in his range. Also you keep mentioning the Ad which is on the board. I've just been assuming you mean Kd or Jd, but as mentioned, have fun trying to make fish fold flushes.

It's the same shit, 2nl or this. Try laying out his possible hand range that calls the 3 bet, calls the flop and would call this bet that you still beat. The question on all 3 streets and particularly the turn is, is this bet for value or a bluff?.

C/F Tu. nothing better folds. nothing worse calls. nothing worse probably bets either because non-diamond pair hands wanna showdown. making it a very easy C/F imo

Originally Posted by d0zer

Fish that chase shitty 1-card flushes don't fold them when they hit. If villain isn't a fish, then he doesn't have shitty flushes in his range. Also you keep mentioning the Ad which is on the board. I've just been assuming you mean Kd or Jd, but as mentioned, have fun trying to make fish fold flushes.

Originally Posted by jyms

It's the same shit, 2nl or this. Try laying out his possible hand range that calls the 3 bet, calls the flop and would call this bet that you still beat. The question on all 3 streets and particularly the turn is, is this bet for value or a bluff?.

Yeah, you're probably right. I'll assume I just have an idea in my head due to me thinking it's worse than it is and having a proper look at it tomorrow.

Cheers for pointing it out.