AKo, OOP 5NL

Just wondering if this should be an easy fold here or if I should be playing back at this guy.

He is pretty tight player - 8/6 over 85 hands.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

CO ($4.19)
Villain (Button) ($5)
SB ($5.53)
BB ($1.78)
UTG ($1.17)
UTG+1 ($5)
Hero (MP1) ($7.33)
MP2 ($5)
MP3 ($1.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, K
2 folds, Hero bets $0.20, 3 folds, Villain raises to $0.60

...

I think i can put him on JJ+, AKs

which gives me about 36% equity - slightly better than 2:1 hand odds and the pot odds are 2.18:1. SO with his tight range i should fold?

Is my range for this guy accurate?

percentage 3bet?

With stats of 8/6 in that means he's raised 5 hands and called preflop one or two times more than that. Have you seen him showdown any hands? Were they raised or just flat called?

Does he 3bet a lot when someone raises before him and he decides to play a hand? Do you know if he 3bets his full opening range? A 6% range could be 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+. Does he play a wider range from the button?

What's your image? Are you generally solid? Have you been folding to a lot of 3bets recently? Have you been calling a lot of 3bets giving the impression that if you raise first in you are not likely to fold preflop to a 3bet? What is your perceived range for 4betting, calling and folding to 3bets?

He raises you to 12bb with 88bb behind creating a pot of 25bb and an SPR of 3.5. Was SPR a part of his considerations?

What are the odds that he's 3bet bluffing? I think if he is as tight as you suggest that may be zero, this would also suggest that if you 4bet he is unlikely to fold - as in he's 3betting only hands that he's ready to stack off with.

What is your reason for putting AKs in his range but leaving out AKo? Including AKo would give you 39.8% equity preflop.

Note that your preflop equity is really not the be-all and end-all of hand analysis. What's important is how you will react to certain types of flops.

Let's assume for a second his range is JJ+, AK - on which flops will you be looking to put in more money after the flop? Remember that you are OOP, so you will need to make your commitment decisions without knowing what your opponents actions are.

JJ+, AK is 40 combos before considering your hand. You block 7 combos of AK, 3 combos of AA and 3 combos of KK, leaving him with 27 combos.

Let's assume a flop of Axx where x is lower than J. On this flop you have TPTK and you are up against:
AA: 1 combo
KK: 3 combos
QQ/JJ: 6 combos each for a total of 12
AK: 6 combos

If you bet out on this flop he will continue with AK and AA (7 combos total) and may decide to fold JJ-KK (15 combos).

Let's assume a flop of Kxx where x again is below J:
AA: 3 combos
KK: 1 combo
QQ/JJ: 12 combos
AK: 6 combos

He'll continue to a lead out bet from you with AA/KK/AK (10 combos) and will consider folding QQ/JJ (12 combos)

Let's assume a flop of AKx where x is below J
AA: 1 combo
KK: 1 combo
QQ/JJ: 12 combos
AK: 4 combos

Definitely continue: 6 combos, maybe fold 12 combos

Flop of AQx
AA: 1 combo
KK: 3 combos
QQ: 3 combos
JJ: 6 combos
AK: 6 combos

Definitely continue 10 combos, maybe fold 9 combos (of which 3 combos are KK)

AJx:
AA: 1 combo
KK: 3 combos
QQ: 6 combos
JJ: 3 combos
AK: 6 combos

Definitely continue 10 combos, maybe fold 9 combos (all second pair hands KK and QQ)

KQx:
AA: 3 combos
KK: 1 combo
QQ: 3 combos
JJ: 6 combos
AK: 6 combos

Definitely continue 13 combos, maybe fold 6 combos

KJx:
AA: 3 combos
KK: 1 combo
QQ: 6 combos
JJ: 3 combos
AK: 6 combos

Definitely continue 13 combos, maybe fold 6 combos (second pair QQ)

QJx:
AA: 3 combos
KK: 3 combos
QQ: 3 combos
JJ: 3 combos
AK: 9 combos

Definitely continue 12 combos, maybe fold 9 combos

Qxx:
AA: 3 combos
KK: 3 combos
QQ: 3 combos
JJ: 6 combos
AK: 9 combos

Definitely continue 9 combos, maybe fold 15 combos

Jxx:
AA/KK/QQ: 12 combos
JJ: 3 combos
AK: 9 combos

Definitely continue 15 combos, maybe fold 9 combos.

xxx:
AA/KK/QQ/JJ: 18 combos
AK: 9 combos

Definitely continue 18 combos, maybe fold 9 combos.

Now consider how likely different types of flops are. Consider the effect of the flop being suited (note that if AKs is the only suited hand in his range you already have two blockers allowing only two combos and if any A or K is on the board that's possibly another blocker for his AKs sub range - like a flop of Kd8c3d will not allow a flush draw as AdKd is the only flush draw possible for him, but the Kd on the board blocks that. Kd8c3c on the other hand allows on flush draw combo)

If you 4bet, it is reasonable to assume that you won't get AI vs any hand worse than JJ/AK and the question is if he'll 3bet fold often enough for the equity of that fold to outweigh the relative disadvantage of you planning to put in 96bb (in a total pot around 200bb requiring 48% equity) with probably no more than 40% equity. It seems doubtful. This is why I'm considering the flat call and playing a flop. But remember that you will be OOP and have to decide whether to commit or not on the flop without having seen your opponent act.

Originally Posted by scfc_andy15

percentage 3bet?

1/30 (3%)

Called or folded. So 56 times he was either folding before anyone had raised the blinds, or was facing a 3bet or 4bet when it came around to him.

Fwiw, your pot odds don't matter here. Seems like a pretty easy fold.

fold and feel good

nonofyobiz just Fold and Fight another day.

ya i folded but sometimes I wonder if it's the right thing to do.
I'm especially troubled with hands like AK, and QQ when facing aggression.

i'm down $24 with QQ at 5NL, but I'm in the black with AK, KK, and AA.

Erpel > Thanks for the write up, i never really think of it in terms of combos so it a little confusing at first. Is that something you think about when deciding on action during a hand? or is it simply a method to analyze after the fact?

I'm finding it difficult to even think about proper ranges during the hand - too slow haha

Spoon > how come pot odds do not matter in this scenario?

Thanks guys

What you do is you do the type of analysis I showed many many many times for different hands and situations and change your assumptions around and you get a better feel for it. You may develop some shorthand principles that you can apply during a hand. For instance in the above you may conclude that if you are against a super tight range you need to cbet or lead out on A-high flops with your whole range because you have good fold equity.

If you think about all the different kinds of flops that can come and how little/much they hit the range you put the opponent on it becomes possible for you to plan before putting money in before the flop what characteristics the flop must display for you to try to run one, two or three streets of bluffs - on which flops you will be betting for value etc etc.

In the present hand, I think you probably should not have JJ in his 3betting range. If you take that out and try to go through my post with that in mind, think about how it changes the observations I make for each flop type and determine whether the presence or absence of JJ in his range makes it more or less profitable for you to continue preflop.

Pot odds don't matter because they don't dictate your EV in any way. You're not calling an all-in, so you have to think in terms of implied odds and reverse implied odds, ie what happens to all of that money left behind.

impressive how spoonitnow thread ended this twice