AK play vs. possible AQ

Should I fold here when he reraised on the turn? I'm trying to play more aggressivly and with confidence, but in this hand I would have folded on the river if the King didn't show. His early betting confused me a bit.

0.25/0.5$ NNL, 10 player

Dealt to Borax on Button

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OpeningBetRound
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X : Sits out
SB : Posts small blind 0.25
BB : Posts big blind 0.50
Y : Sits down 0.03
UTG : Raises for 1.00
UTG+1 : Folds
UTG+2 : Folds
MP1 : Folds
CO : Folds
Borax : Raises for 3.00
SB : Folds
BB : Folds
UTG : Calls for 2.00
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Flop

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UTG : Bets 0.50
Borax : Raises for 5.00
UTG : Calls for 4.50
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Turn

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UTG : Bets 0.50
Borax : Raises for 10.00
UTG : Raises for 19.00
Borax : Calls for 9.50
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River

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UTG : Bets 0.50
Borax : Went all-in 23.15
UTG : Went all-in 22.00
Borax : Receives returned betting money 0.65

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Showdown
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Borax
- Two Pair - A's and K's
UTG
- Two Pair - A's and Q's

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Result
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UTG Showed Cards
Borax Showed Cards (Winning) 97.75

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Originally Posted by Borax

Should I fold here when he reraised on the turn? I'm trying to play more aggressivly and with confidence, but in this hand I would have folded on the river if the King didn't show. His early betting confused me a bit.

Folding the river to a .50 bet IS NOT AN OPTION. If the K hadn't shown up and you questioned your hand, then calling is ok. Folding is completely insane.

As to the turn, it depends on where you felt you were at. Looking at it now and knowing the results, it's easy to say "well he was obviously slowplaying." I really can't see folding this for $9.50 into a $46 pot, unless you have enormously accurate read.

I can see how you'd be confused about his river bet of $.50 into a $55 dollar pot. That shit don't make no sense. I don't care what two cards you have in your hand, you only have to have it be correct to call once out of every bajillion times for it to be correct. It might even be a correct call to make if you don't even hold two cards in the hand and are down the street playing rollerhockey. Slowplaying top two pair like that is asking to get sucked out on. So congrats on the win, serves him right.

As for the question of folding on the turn, I think Jeff is right. Although it seems like you may have forced yourself into that difficult decision w/ your turn raise of $10. If you'd only raised it $5 on the turn and he reraised for $10-15 would you have felt as compelled to call? A reraise on the turn like that and I start to think I'm beaten by two pair or trips here. That being said, there wasn't a real sense of immediacy from the guy trying to end that pot with a huge reraise or push. The board didn't have any flush or straight draws, either, so the suited part of your big slick didn't offer you any other outs. I know I could personally do a better job of not getting myself into a mess like that, so your posting helped me consider this scenario in other ways. Thanks.

It's a tough choice on that turn. Obviously the river gives you a decent hand, but I think the turn is the most important part of this hand. However, I think you're leaving an important part out that helps you make a decision every hand. This is your read on the player. What kind of player is he? The reraise on the turn smells of a good hand, and all you have is top pair top kicker. From my experience, I've lost a lot more money with TPTK then I've gained (I slow down my play with TPTK if a goodsized flop and turn bet doesn't win the hand right there and my hand is unimproved since the flop). It's really not worth the huge bets. Think about it, unless you really have a sucker/fish, all you have is a pair. That's not a lot.

The way I would have played this hand is a $5 raise on the turn (instead of 10) because that should give you all the information (also your read on the guy) that you need. The reraise is a sure sign you were beat, and you were. A lucky (3 out, 6% chance) river won you the hand, but calling that $9 when (even though you didn't know, but had a good feeling) you needed a king is not justified to me. I think statistics and your gut feeling says you would be better off folding that hand on the turn after the reraise. Also, my best advice is that there's no need to reraise a hand that big (the $10) in general. $5 bet saves you money and gives you the same information you need.

JeffregGB wrote:
Folding the river to a .50 bet IS NOT AN OPTION. If the K hadn't shown up and you questioned your hand, then calling is ok. Folding is completely insane.

sorry about that, I meant to say that I would fold on the river if the King didn't show and he went all in....


...and thanks for comments guys. The 5$ level for the turn bet seems smart. My read on the player wasn't very good and first I thought AQ, but then I got confused by his betting and thought maybe he was fishing for something.

I agree with bigred. Statistically, you should not call that hand.
From all the calls and the reraise on the turn, you are pretty
sure you are beaten (since it is obvious what you have from
his point of view.) With the reraise on the turn, you need to
get about 1:5 odds to call the $9 to win $47(if you assume he has 2 pairs,
which is IMO a safe assumption at this point). But don't forget
that he might have a set, in which case you need even
better odds. If you he had a set, you have 3 outs(3 A's). If he
had two pairs, you have 3 outs (3 K's). So, you have are about
6% to win (like bigred stated). Definitely not enough odds.

BTW, to add a more complete %, you have to factor in the
chances that he is bluffing. Harriginton stated that it's usually
a 10% that a player is bluffing. I think a 10% is high for this
situation. 5-8% is more like it. That still does not give you
enough odds to call.

Having said all that, congrats on the win!

Just my $.02
cup