AK - how to know when you are beaten?

Hit TPTK, bet it hard but villain sucked out on me. Any thoughts on how I could have lost less? No specific read on Zackzack, but the whole table was loose.

***** Hand History for Game 3430441934 *****
$50 NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, January 24, 19:41:14 EDT 2006
Table Table 66114 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: eightsinhole ( $73.40 )
Seat 2: fanzareli8 ( $46.03 )
Seat 3: dmbscr241 ( $62.50 )
Seat 9: BruderG ( $45.65 )
Seat 10: DBL0SVN ( $70.77 )
Seat 6: LakeTahoe222 ( $50.50 )
Seat 8: andrea109 ( $26.55 )
Seat 5: JackRocks ( $50.60 )
Seat 7: brookm1 ( $49.50 )
Seat 4: Zackzack13 ( $29.50 )
dmbscr241 posts small blind [$0.25].
Zackzack13 posts big blind [$0.50].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to DBL0SVN [ As Kh ]
>You have options at Table 65998 Table!.
JackRocks folds.
LakeTahoe222 folds.
brookm1 folds.
andrea109 folds.
fanzareli8: wow thats about right
BruderG calls [$0.50].
DBL0SVN raises [$2.50].
eightsinhole folds.
fanzareli8 folds.
>You have options at Table 65998 Table!.
dmbscr241 folds.
Zackzack13 calls [$2].
fanzareli8: nice gutshot hit
BruderG folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ad, 9s, 3s ]
>You have options at Table 65998 Table!.
dmbscr241: way to check that set
fanzareli8: lucky f uck
Zackzack13 bets [$5].
fanzareli8: hopin the board would pair
dmbscr241: greedy bas tard
>You have options at Table 65998 Table!.
DBL0SVN raises [$12].
Zackzack13 calls [$7].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4s ]
dmbscr241: yea ok
fanzareli8: but u hit ur XXXXin bs outs
dmbscr241: lookin to checkraise
Zackzack13 checks.
DBL0SVN checks.
** Dealing River ** [ 7d ]
LakeTahoe222: All that over a 9 dollar pot?
>You have options at Table 65998 Table!.
Zackzack13 bets [$5].
DBL0SVN calls [$5].
Zackzack13 shows [ 8s, 6s ] a flush, nine high.
DBL0SVN doesn't show [ As, Kh ] a pair of aces.
Zackzack13 wins $37.80 from the main pot with a flush, nine high.

First off...
- You hit TPTK.
- You did not bet it that hard.
- Opponent hit his draw with justifiable odds, didn't suck out....

You can't do anything about the cards or your opp hitting his draw, but do keep in mind that your flop raise was actually relatively small. Very roughly:

- Pot is about $6.
- Opp bets $5 (--> pot is now $11). This is a very strong bet, esp into the preflop raiser.
- You raise to $12 (pot is now $23). This is barely above a minraise. The opponent now needs to call off $7 to win $30... or he has to call off 23% of the pot when he has somewhere in the neighborhood of 20% chance to "win" the pot on the turn.

Marginal call and he's technically making a mistake, but it's close enough to justify a call and it isn't a mistake if he accounts for implied odds and thinks you'll pay his draw off (which you did).

What can you do? Well you now know this guy can bet draws aggressively and adjust your play accordingly. As for the river? I have a hard time not calling that bet unless I have a pretty strong read on the guy.

EDIT: you also know this guy can/will play suited trash into a preflop raise. You generally like this type of player on your table...

Originally Posted by Blinky

First off...
- You hit TPTK.
- You did not bet it that hard.
- Opponent hit his draw with justifiable odds, didn't suck out....

tptk or even two two are not worth slow-rolling on a board w/ 2 color. re-raise the pot ($11) to make him pay through his goddamn nose for the draw or to just take it down on the flop. plus, you get a chance to show good cards so you can later cash out your table image in a large (20xbb+) pot...

dinky bets @ the river w/ a flush are stupid b/c the roi is not really justifiable... if you chase & hit your %35 or so outer (which the other %65 of the time won't hit) then you need to extract enough value to make up for all those times where you pay for your draw but nothing comes. not a bad call @ the river since tons of people like to make plays @ pots just so they can rep the flush w/ 3 to color on the board & take down a relatively juicy pot w/ what they hope it looks like an extreme value bet.

- You raise to $12 (pot is now $23). This is barely above a minraise. The opponent now needs to call off $7 to win $30... or he has to call off 23% of the pot when he has somewhere in the neighborhood of 20% chance to "win" the pot on the turn.

Quick note, when calculating pot odds, you don't add the amount of the call to the pot. Villain had to pay $7 to win ~$23, not $30.

Raising the flop stronger ($18 or $20 seems good and even, enough to make him commit most of his stack to a flush draw, something most players don't want to do) seems like it could diffuse the situation rather quickly. TPTK is not really a hand I want to take to showdown unless I know Opp has a weaker ace.

Quick note, when calculating pot odds, you don't add the amount of the call to the pot. Villain had to pay $7 to win ~$23, not $30.

True.

I generally find percentages easier to use than fractions (comparing percentages is easier than comparing fractions).

via odds, villian has 23:7 or about 3.3:1.
1/4.3 ~ 23%
via percentages, villain must invest 7$ into a $30 pot
7/30 ~ 23% villian's "pot equity" (I may be using that term incorrectly)

so it's saying the same thing. Plus I find it easier to remember the guide of (percentages)

2*(number of outs) 1% ~ chance of drawing out

So for FD, about 18-19 % (have no idea what the guideline number is for pot odds though math says it's a shade less than 4:1)

Calculating percentages also has the advantage of memorizing less and being able to account for weird situations with a "nonstandard" number of outs such as a OESD with 2 overcards and a possible flush draw where you hold none of the suit of the possible flush.

Incidentally, how often do you end up showing down TPTK? I agree it can be tricky enough to play out of position.

Seat 4: Zackzack13 ( $29.50 )

Raise to ~18 to make him committed. Pay off A9/A3/99/33. Note he cannot have pair+flushdraw.

Sumbitch plays sooted CRAP for a 4xBB raise heads up. That's the kind of guy you want at your table in the long run. He should have folded to your initial raise, but that's irrelevant. If I get TPTK, I try to take it down on the flop whenever possible. I bet at least 2/3 pot and more than likely bet the flop. Too many ways to get outdrawn. I may be leaving chips on the table, though....

So the consensus seems to be to bet harder on the flop and totally wipe out his drawing odds. However, since he came out firing, I was also worried about 2pairs and sets - as J_Fish pointed out- and was after information as much as anything. Didn't want to lose too much to find out I was already beat on the flop.

This illustrates how difficult TPTK can be unless you have great reads.

If he has 2p/set, then wp by Villain. Without a very strong read, there's no way you're folding TPTK to his initial bet, so you'll have to reraise and commit him. Things change with a deeper stack..

So the consensus seems to be to bet harder on the flop and totally wipe out his drawing odds. However, since he came out firing, I was also worried about 2pairs and sets - as J_Fish pointed out- and was after information as much as anything. Didn't want to lose too much to find out I was already beat on the flop.

With a draw on the board, yes, raising his bet is a smart way to go.

A good opp though might bet out a set or 2pr this way as well, looking to get raised in which case your hand (with the relatively shallow money) is harder to get away from. If your opp is LAGGy, this is exactly the kind of situation that LAGGs love.

bet the flop with 666 hammers then if he chases for bad odds dont pay him.

Originally Posted by Blinky

If your opp is LAGGy, this is exactly the kind of situation that LAGGs love.

good players switch between betting & just calling w/ their flush draws. laggers will almost always bet them, hoping the re-raise will be minimal enough to give them pot odds while also committing the opponent to the pot. this is the situation you pegged yourself into by not re-raising sufficiently.

if i have tptk on a flop w/ no obvious twopairs, i'm hammering the pot to get the draws out. if my large re-raise gets called & the villain leads into me w/ a significant bet on a blank turn, i have to put the man on a set or two-pair & tptk should be relatively easy to let go of. if he checks i checks behind all the way to showdown & probably fold to a large slam on the river.

note: the #1 way to crush laggers is to bet minimally into them w/ the nut flush draw, get flat-called b/c the're chasing a marginal flush & move in when it the right card comes.

I push the flop because of opponents short stack. Lots of donks will pay you off with Ace-rag, often a flush draw will call with terrible odds (and makes you money). Sometimes you will run into A9 for twopair or a set of 9s or 3s, but that wont happen often enough to make it -EV, so I just gamble and push against the shortstack.

btw, this can change radically with a read. but you said the whole table was loose, so theres a good chance he has ace-rag etc.

Btw, dont post results next time, they just cloud the judgement of anyone trying to give proper feedback on the hand.

i think the hand was perfectly played.

good preflop raise isolates to one in the pot
on the flop the pot is $5, and after villain bets it is $10.

your raise of $7 is 70% of the pot
(i would probably raise $8 in this position but that's nitpicking)

he sucks u out on the turn.
u check it wisely, and value call on the river for 1/6 pot
nothing wrong with it. you'll win in the long run - nh and i wouldn't change a thing

I think it's funny reading about the previous hand where someone misplayed their set and lost to a gutshot and then seeing both argue.

Anyways...........flop is easy push vs a shorter stack.I will slide scroll bar all the way to the right,so what if I lose I still get to see some leftover chips slide back to me he he.

Originally Posted by salsa4ever

i think the hand was perfectly played.

good preflop raise isolates to one in the pot
on the flop the pot is $5, and after villain bets it is $10.

your raise of $7 is 70% of the pot
(i would probably raise $8 in this position but that's nitpicking)

By not raising more he is making this pretty much an automatic call to someone that is betting a flush draw. He is essentially making a value raise against such an opponent and doing little to protect his hand.

what's wrong with a value raise?

he only paid him $5 more when the flush hit.

he's paying $7 to win $22. Clearly not getting the odds for the turn (20%). Taking implied odds into account, if we assume you're only paying him another $5 if the flush hits on the turn, you're making still money, but only just.

That said, I have made some calculations and I realized I made a mistake in evaluating the size of the pot. Pot is 5.75 preflop, villain bets 5. When you call you will make the pot 15.75 - therefore, to make a proper value raise I would raise by $10. Make villain pay 2:5 for 1:5 odds

But there's a catch 22. Assuming villain calls, he's now got $17.50 in the pot and his stack is only $29.50, so he only got $12 left. Assuming turn comes a rag, you can only push for $12, and the pot is by then $47.75, and villain has odds to call (but is not gaining anything from calling)

So, with villain's stack, a $10 raise would earn you extra money, but not by much because you become pot committed to calling if the flush hits on the turn, and you can't push him out on the turn. You increase your variance playing this way.

So my line assuming villain had another $20 in his stack would be to raise the flop to $15, push the turn on a rag and check/call/fold/push a scare card turn depending on read and size of bet.

With villain's stack size, I agree with pushing and taking it down.