AK flops top pair, raised

Reads -
MP 31/15 (26)
BB 47/20 (51)

Sample sizes aren't really helpful, it's the first time he's 3bet my cbet so reads are sort of non-existent apart from basic HUD stats. No showdowns of note.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

BB ($8.31)
UTG ($22.59)
UTG+1 ($29.40)
MP1 ($9.02)
Hero (MP2) ($36.18)
MP3 ($11.14)
CO ($11.79)
Button ($23.53)
SB ($20.48)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, K
3 folds, Hero bets $0.30, MP3 calls $0.30, 3 folds, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($1.13) 4, A, 8 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.70, MP3 raises to $1.50, 1 fold, Hero ???

Ranges etc -
BB lol any two
MP pf flatting range - 22-JJ 78s+ KJs+ ATs+ AJ+ (though probably not AK)
MP flop raising range - 44 88 AJ+ A4 A8

These ranges realistic?

Just basically a line check with this one, simply because it's a common spot that I don't really know what to do in. All three actions come to mind. Folding seems nitty, calling seems stationy and raising seems spewy. What to do?

A4 A8 cannot be in his flop raising range if they are not in his preflop range. If A4 and A8 are in his preflop range, mind that they are probably suited, and there are only two combos of A4s and one of A8s due to blockers.

Not sure if he will raise AJ (or even AQ). If he does it's probably to "see where he is at".

Could he be doing it with a flush draw to try and buy himself two cheap cards?

I'd say call and c/f turn?

Hijack: everyone, go to your database and filter for flops where you got TPTK or TPGK, bet flop=true, flop was raised=true and the hand went to showdown. Distinguish by stakes. How often was your TPTK/TPGK beat on the flop? I'll do it later as I don't have my DB here right now.

You are toast. Tell me why.

Originally Posted by !Luck

You are toast. Tell me why.

Is it because he does it into two players, including the BB station?

Just read the section on the flop min-raise in "Kill everyone" p45, and it's quite interesting, I would recommend it. Haven't seen anything else written on this play in other books so far.

Flop raising range - A4, A8, 88, 44 > Ax, FDs. Blockers play but fish typically call down with Ax here and not min-raise. Unless he's been getting out of line, I'd just dump it.

Originally Posted by daviddem

Hijack: everyone, go to your database and filter for flops where you got TPTK or TPGK, bet flop=true, flop was raised=true and the hand went to showdown. Distinguish by stakes. How often was your TPTK/TPGK beat on the flop? I'll do it later as I don't have my DB here right now.

24 hands from 39k database, 50% win/loss, WTSD/W$SD 58.33/71.43, 341 BB/100. All 12 wins are AK or AQ on an A high rag board. Replaying these hands the vast majority of those won are against known villains that i have labelled fish.

Originally Posted by StarGrinder

Flop raising range - A4, A8, 88, 44 > Ax, FDs. Blockers play but fish typically call down with Ax here and not min-raise. Unless he's been getting out of line, I'd just dump it.

I concur. Yeah its nitty but i think its the lesser evil.

Originally Posted by StarGrinder

Flop raising range - A4, A8, 88, 44 > Ax, FDs. Blockers play but fish typically call down with Ax here and not min-raise. Unless he's been getting out of line, I'd just dump it.

I agree vs fish, esp. as he does it vs two players.

Note how good a play it is though, heads up in position against a thinking opponent: getting more money in the pot with his very strong hands, maybe getting a fold with his weaker hands/draws or, at the very least, buying two cheap cards to improve, as well as opportunities to bluff further streets.

Originally Posted by !Luck

You are toast. Tell me why.

He's flopped big here. The raise is for pot building and he isn't attempting to build it for anyone else. He'd likely take the card without raising the FD?

Since A4/A8 would seem unlikely holdings unless he's masochistic, he's more likely than not there with a set which has us in all sorts of trouble of course.

Interesting. Glad to see that folding isn't horrible.

Yeah of course hands don't get added to a range, they get removed as we gather more information. I don't see why he can't have Axs though for aces-up, so it's my pf calling range that I suspect is wrong.

I did indeed fold, I posted the hand because I felt it was nitty, wanted to be sure it was ok. I figured his raising into both a station and the pre-flop raiser, who happens to be the table big-stack, shows strength. He has no reason to show my raise or cbet no respect, I haven't shown down any crazy moves.

As for previous similar spots, I filtered AK, $10nl, 7 players min dealt in, flop top pair, facing raise, and the only hand that came through the filter was this one posted. My FR $10nl sample is only 2.6k though. I didn't want to include my $2nl hands because AK is going to win in this spot a lot more at $2nl since ranges are so much wider.

So my DB doesn't really help since I'm still new to this level.

I think if this guy had been giving me a hard time, or was a fish with hands like AJ in this spot, I would've continued, but I had no reason to not credit this raise. Folding seemed the only definitely not -ev move.

Originally Posted by daviddem

Note how good a play it is though, heads up in position against a thinking opponent: getting more money in the pot with his very strong hands, maybe getting a fold with his weaker hands/draws or, at the very least, buying two cheap cards to improve, as well as opportunities to bluff further streets.

Yeah this is why I like to raise my flush draws in position, because it greatly increases the chance of seeing villain(s) check over on the turn, giving me either a free card or another barrel, whilst putting pressure on tp hands and forcing most bluffs to give up. I did consider it a good raise from him because he made me fold my "monster".

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Yeah this is why I like to raise my flush draws in position, because it greatly increases the chance of seeing villain(s) check over on the turn, giving me either a free card or another barrel, whilst putting pressure on tp hands and forcing most bluffs to give up. I did consider it a good raise from him because he made me fold my "monster".

It's OK to do with 10-12 outs and some fold equity, because then you can often call if he shoves over, but I think you have to pick your spots, boards, raise size and opponents more carefully to throw a raise with naked FD's or OESD. If they are likely to reraise or not to fold to a second barrel I wouldn't do it for example.

I would suggest you (re?)read the section of "Kill everyone" on the flop minraise, very insightful. I know you like tournaments. In general it's a good book about playing the lagg style in tourneys.

Also, don't just filter your DB for AK, filter for "hand value on flop=TPTK,TPGK or overpair", flop bet=true, flop was raised=true, saw showdown=true"
I did mine and I won (best hand on the flop) about half of the time, but this includes my 2NL hands. At 5NL, (sample not significant enough) I only won against very short stacks and lost twice (against a set and a flopped straight).

I must confess, I'm not much of a reader. My poker study is pretty much limited to the internet. It might do me well to expand my study so I look into this book.

Expanded my DB search, and it didn't make pretty reading at all. 3 hands, there's the AK posted here, there was KQ which I folded to flop raise, and an AQ which cost me $9, I remember that hand and it was horrible, I called his raise, turn was jack, and we stacked off because I thought he was spewing (he was prone). He showed AJ and river was another fucking jack.

Expanding further and allowing my $2nl hands, I'm basically leaking 4.5bb a hand, which incidentally is less than what I'd lose if I always folded my top pair after I opened and my cbet gets raised (I lose 10bb in posted hand). Not sure how to interpret this data, I would assume it's because top pair is so much stronger against villains' ranges at $2nl compared to $10nl.